Miles Byrd, The Monster in Waiting | The Prospect Overview
San Diego State wing Miles Byrd is a looming threat every time he steps onto the court. As a result, he's a real deal prospect for the 2025 NBA Draft. PLUS: Quick Hits across college basketball!
I hate how early the sun goes down during the winter months. The miserable practice of leaving work, only to be surrounded by a bitter, cold darkness takes a toll on me. I’m always a bit more irritable and anxious during this time. I also dread it as a parent. Our three-year-old daughter is an active, outdoorsy kid. We’re lucky enough to live in a city that has a bunch of free or extremely inexpensive options for outdoor activities. But during the winter months, those places close up shop. It’s even too dark to take a stroll down to our local park. I spent all of August and September worrying about how we’d keep her busy when the sun started to go down at 4 P.M.
Thankfully, our ever-creative daughter has found a solution for that. It started around Halloween, when we began to realize that she loves scary stuff. Ghosts, monsters, you name it. She can’t get enough. We think this started with a book my aunt got her for her birthday, The Little Ghost Who Was a Quilt. It’s a fantastic story that I can’t recommend enough about a ghost who was too heavy to fly because he’s a quilt instead of a sheet. But ever since she read it, she just sort of embraced all the stuff that usually scares other little kids. As a result, she created a game that has helped us to pass the time during the winter months. It’s called Monster.
Monster is a simple game. We start by turning out all the lights in the house. Typically, Mom plays the role of The Monster. The Monster will hide at various locations throughout the house. As The Monster hides, my daughter and I walk carefully throughout the house. When we walk past The Monster, The Monster will growl or give chase to us. From there, we must run to a base location, typically our living room couch. The jagged layout of our home gives us plenty of unique hiding spots to consistently jump-scare our three-year-old child (do not aggregate that). She loves this game, and we play it for up to an hour some nights.
Here’s the thing—I really don’t like playing Monster. My daughter loves it, and making her happy is my number one priority. But Monster gives me tremendous anxiety. While I may be a big, tall jock who lifts weights and writes about basketball, I am also a lowly coward. During the course of an average game of Monster, I’d say I accidentally let out a genuine, “AHHHH!” about four different times. My wife is really good at hiding, you guys. But what really gets me is the dread of playing Monster. It’s the knowing that The Monster is in waiting, ready to strike, and there’s nothing I can do about it.
San Diego State’s Miles Byrd has that same effect on opposing offenses. The 6’7” redshirt sophomore is The Monster in Waiting, ready to make a play on the ball at all times. They can try to scheme around it, but his ability to make plays on the ball is a frightening, looming inevitability. Plus, he’s shown a valuable offensive skill set. His size, well-roundedness, and production have planted him firmly into the 2025 NBA Draft conversation. Let’s dig in!
Defense
Miles Byrd has been one of the best defensive playmakers in college basketball this season. There are four primary factors that drive his success—length, lift, timing, and coordination.
Off the ball, Byrd is engaged. He knows where the ball is, he knows how rotations work, and he’s ready to make a play. Despite carrying one of his team’s heavier usage burdens, Byrd is a high-motor hustler, especially when he smells blood in the water. He’ll fly over from the weak side to help at the basket and often swat the shots of opponents when he gets there. Byrd gets off the floor with the greatest of ease, and he gets up high. As a result, he can block shots high above the rim. Rotationally, he’ll cover up for the mistakes of his teammates and spring into action when needed. His ability to cover large swaths of ground quickly stands out. He’s an absolute terror in passing lanes, ready to use his north-south burst and long wingspan en route to a pick-six transition dunk. His ability to make plays all over the floor makes him a persistent threat on defenses. Byrd’s inescapable presence haunts opposing offenses. Opponents must account for him at all times, lest they pay the price.
His production isn’t simply a result of him flying all over the place off the ball. He’s a potent on-ball defender as well. Again, his length shows up here. He’s able to make himself wide when he slides seamlessly in his stance, making him difficult to get around. Byrd also boasts exceptional timing and hand-eye coordination. He does a stellar job of poking into handles at the point of attack, getting all ball and nothing else. He’s actually toward the bottom of San Diego State’s roster in fouls per 100 possessions despite employing these types of tactics on a consistent basis. Byrd’s functional leaping ability makes his contests potent everywhere on the floor. While his slender, 190-pound frame limits how much he can do from a physicality standpoint, he plays with a genuine toughness and doesn’t surrender easy buckets to bigger players.
There’s plenty of ball left to be played. But the numbers that Miles Byrd has posted on the defensive end thus far are absolutely stellar. His 3.1 STL%, 5.0 BLK%, and 5.3 DBPM are all elite marks for a wing prospect. There are minor gripes to be had, such as his screen navigation, which I’ve found to be inconsistent. And while the fact that he’s on the skinnier size does give me a degree of pause, the rest of his tool kit quells those concerns. He’s smart, careful, long, fast, bouncy, and he plays hard. I’d like it if he had some more meat on his bones, but given how productive he is, and the fact that he’s not without other great physical tools, I’m willing to overlook that. Byrd can get stronger, but few players on earth can develop everything else Byrd is bringing to the table on defense.
Offense
Thankfully, Miles Byrd isn’t one of those, “he’s great on one end of the floor, but we’ll have to hope and pray that he figures out something on the other end” guys.
While it’s still early in the season, Byrd has looked great from three-point range so far this year. He’s hit 38.8% of his threes on 11 attempts per 100 possessions. The lengthy lefty has taken most of his triples as spot-up jumpers. His mechanics are consistent across his attempts. He’s ready to shoot off the catch and he’s unbothered by hard closeouts. But digging beneath the surface, there’s more to him than that. Byrd has also taken nine threes as a pick-and-roll ball handler this year, demonstrating a strong level of confidence and assertiveness when given space from behind the arc. He’s shown comfort moving into his shot, and his willingness to consistently relocate off the ball gives him an additional degree of NBA functionality.
Byrd has juice as a playmaker, too. For starters, Byrd is comfortable putting the ball on the deck. He operates with a smooth rhythm and rock, using pace and directional changes to create advantages. When he gets downhill, he does a good job of keeping his eyes up for open teammates. He’s a fluid mental processor who reacts to what the defense gives him. He takes it a few steps further than the mere basics, though. Byrd will use a blend of footwork, hesitation, and head fakes to manipulate defenders and maximize openings from teammates. From there, he can execute sharp whips for easy buckets. He’s also shown a flare for creativity at times, as evident in the behind-the-back dime to Pharaoh Compton in the clip above. If anything, it feels as if his 15.2 AST% understates his passing prowess. Additionally, his 1.8 A:TO is a fantastic mark for a wing prospect.
My biggest concern with Byrd’s game is how he attacks the basket. For starters, his first step isn’t anything to write home about. He’s more silky than he is bursty, having to counter his way to the basket. This area is also where his frame hinders him the most. Opponents can find success bumping him off his line. When he gets to the basket, he can struggle against contact. He’s often forced to lob the ball up at suboptimal angles inside. Given these factors, there are issues both getting to and finishing at the basket. Per Synergy, a measly 13.5% of his halfcourt shots come at the rim, and he’s only converting 50% of them. Still, there is room for optimism here. This is his first season in a bigger role, and some grace should be given as a result. Byrd’s coordination does allow him to contort around rim protectors for the occasional flashy finish, too. It’s also important to remember his lift, which shows up when he gets a runway to the rim. There are meaningful tools here. The hope is that as he fills out his frame, he can get to the basket and convert there more consistently.
Projection
It’s still early in the year, and I don’t want to get carried away. There’s a chance his production could come back down to earth. Additionally, I worry a little bit about how he’ll scale up against NBA physicality. But with that being said, I’m very excited about Miles Byrd, especially relative to consensus. I don’t sweat my rankings too much at this stage in the process, but in a class like this one, where there isn’t a great deal of depth, I’d comfortably say that he’d be in my first round right now. His defensive production has been absolutely absurd. On offense, the pairing of Byrd’s passing and shooting profile extremely well to the next level. As I noted last week, the two biggest offensive responsibilities for non-big man role players are shooting threes on volume and taking care of the ball. That’s what Miles Byrd does. Add in the defense, and he’s one of the most plug-and-play guys out there. There isn’t a roster construction he won’t fit. His production is eerily similar to Devin Vassell’s at Florida State. Byrd is older, and that should be taken into consideration. Still, there are Caleb Martin, Vince Williams Jr., and Josh Green style paths for him to take. Should he continue to produce at a similar clip, I anticipate that he’ll be a significant climber throughout this cycle. The valuable malleability that Byrd provides as a modern three-and-D wing is exceedingly difficult to come by. Until the rest of the world takes notice, the monster will be in waiting.
Quick Hits
-We’ve got to talk about Jeremiah Fears. The 6’4” Joliet, Illinois native has been on a tear for the Oklahoma Sooners. His 30-point outing, capped off with a game-winning four-point play, has him flying up draft boards. Personally, I’m still exercising caution. Fears can be turnover prone (3.9 TOV, 21.5 TOV%), trying to force passes through non-existent windows or lobbing balls into danger zones. His shooting priors aren’t the greatest, either. Still, there’s a lot to love about him, especially considering that he’s one of the youngest draft-eligible prospects. He’s carrying an enormous 31.8 USG%, but still scoring with fantastic efficiency (62.8 TS%). He’s tough as nails and never backs down from physicality. Defensively, he’s posting an outstanding 4.6 STL% thanks to his fast hands and knowledge of where to be on the floor. The decision making needs to come around, but if nothing else, he looks the part of a great scoring guard who can still bring something to the table on defense.
-Since this article is about a player I’m higher on than consensus, I’ll throw another one out there—RJ Luis. The 6’7” junior from St. John’s is as well-rounded as they come. He’s a talented on-ball player. Luis blends his length and quickness with speed changes and ball screen manipulation to get to his spots. His counter game is the icing on the cake. Luis can finish through contact inside, but he also keeps his head up for interior dump-off passes (18.5 AST%). Defensively, he’s a pain to get around at the point of attack and off-ball; he brings an intimidating presence as the low man off-ball (2.9 STL%, 3.3 BLK%). The only hangup for Luis is his shot. He’s at 30.6% from three. However, his 3.3 attempts per game nearly double his previous career high. Everything else you’d want in a modern wing is there. Given that, he’s one of my preferred “if he shoots it” bets in this class.
-I’ve got to give some love to Princeton’s stars after their win over Rutgers. Xaivian Lee is their most known commodity, and for good reason. The 6’3” guard operates at a frenetic pace. He’s athletic, shifty, and hard to contain. His combination of speed and shake make it a nightmare to stay in front of him. After inconsistent results from deep, he’s at 40% from three on the year. Sometimes, he makes the game a bit more difficult for himself than he should, but his overall process continues to improve. He’s the best mid-major guard prospect out there right now. Also, don’t sleep on No Stone Unturned prospect Caden Pierce, who hit the game-winner. He led the way with 21 points and 14 rebounds. Pierce is a high-motor hustler who pressures the rim and grabs boards at a preposterous clip for a 6’6” forward. Plus, he has good passing feel. If his shot heats up this year and next, don’t write him off.
-Last year, I was our resident Otega Oweh skeptic. While I loved the 6’5”, 210-pound hard-charging wing’s motor, athleticism, and intensity. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily on offense when he got to conference play. This year, he looks much better on that end. He’s a more willing shooter, now up to 5.6 threes per 100 possessions, and he’s making 36.4% of them. Oweh is also processing the game better, making sound decisions, and reducing his turnovers. He’s more confident on-ball as a whole, even showing some shake and some counter moves off the bounce that weren’t there a year ago. Plus, he’s still the same bouncy, above-the-rim transition force. His sturdy frame and competitiveness allow him to guard bigger players than his height would suggest, too. Oweh’s stock plummeted after a rough close to last season, but he deserves serious reassessment after his strong start.
-Micah Peavy has been doing outrageous things for the Georgetown Hoyas. The 6’7” graduate nabbed seven steals in a win over Creighton this past week, and he got them in every way imaginable. He read passing lanes like a free safety, successfully battled Ryan Kalkbrenner for post position before grabbing an entry pass, knocked balls loose at the point of attack, and blew up handoffs. Peavy’s large frame, quick feet, and fast hands make him a potent, versatile defender. Currently, he’s averaging 3.2 SPG and 0.9 BPG. The NBA question for him is basically what his offensive role will look like. He makes some nice passes (4.3 APG to 2.5 TOV), but his current role allows him to dribble more than he would at the next level. And while he’s made 35.7% of his threes this year, it’s on low volume, and he’s a career 28.4% from long range. Where his shot settles will likely determine whether he’s a dude who gets drafted, or more of an E-10 flier. Regardless, it’s time to take notice of him.
-We’ve got to give love to our Mid-Major 40-point scorers. We’ll start with Donovan Dent, the 6’2” junior who carved up a great VCU team this past weekend. While Dent is slender, he’s slippery, allowing him to get deep into the paint at will. In the VCU game, he added a less common wrinkle, fully embracing contact at all times. That got him to the charity stripe for 11 free throws (of which he made 10). Dent is also a stellar, clever passer (7.3 APG to 2.7 TOV) and potent defensive playmaker (career 1.2 SPG, 0.7 BPG). His shooting remains the question. Dent has made 35.9% of his college threes, but he’s taken only 2.0 per 100 possessions. It’s hard to fully trust that he’ll keep defenses honest at the next level given his tentativeness, but his athleticism, passing, and defensive output will give him a real chance to prove that he can do it.
-Next up, we’ve got 6’6” North Dakota wing Treysen Eaglestaff, who put up 40 points against a loaded Alabama squad in a rare “high-major at mid-major” game that went down to the wire. Alabama tried to put a variety of different defenders on Eaglestaff, and it didn’t matter. His quick pull-up and deep range allowed him to sink eight of his 18 three-point attempts. Inside the arc, he got to his spots through a blend of pace and herky-jerky misdirection before finishing with soft touch. He also leveraged his gravity to make some nice passes, too. He’s a polished shooter and scorer who can pass. On defense, he doesn’t have the same impact. His ground coverage is suboptimal and he’s not the most natural mover. Still, someone who dropped 40 on one of the best teams in the country while receiving heaps of defensive attention shouldn’t go totally overlooked. I’m interested to see if he can round out his production next season.
-Arkansas State toppled UAB after a 25-point comeback this past week. 6’5” junior wing Joseph Pinion caught my eye in that contest. The statistical flaws are pretty obvious—he’s in a lower usage role at a mid-major, doesn’t score a lot, and has an even A:TO. But Pinion can shoot the absolute cover off the ball. He’s a legitimate movement guy who gets the ball out in a hurry. He’s made 41.7% of his threes on high volume this year. When chased off the line, he actually has a good first step and takes long strides to the basket. Defensively, he covers ground like a maniac and flies off the floor to block shots on the perimeter (4.8 BLK%). He’s a weird, funky player, but an incredibly productive one with a three-and-D skill set. I’ll be keeping an eye on him as a deep-cut sleeper.
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