Oklahoma City Thunder 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview

The No Ceilings crew continues their preview series of all of the teams drafting in the lottery today with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Nick: The Oklahoma City Thunder are in perhaps the most enviable position of any team in the NBA. They were the #1 seed in the Western Conference last season, and they climbed to the top seed much earlier than anyone expected. They also have a ton of room to grow—their core players were all in their age 25 or younger seasons last year, with second-place MVP finisher Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the oldest of the bunch; he won’t turn 26 until after the 2024 NBA Draft.

On top of all of that, the Thunder are still loaded with first round picks from various Sam Presti trades. They have yet another lottery pick in this draft—the #12 pick, courtesy of the Houston Rockets.

So…what do you get for the team that has everything? The Thunder jumped a few steps in the typical rebuilding process last season after finishing as the 10th seed with a 40-42 record the year before, and they are fully in “win-now” mode with SGA officially entering his prime.

I’m curious about your thoughts on the situation, Stephen. The Thunder might be sitting pretty at the top of the Western Conference, and they might only need playoff experience when it comes to taking this young squad to the next level. Nevertheless, every team in the NBA could use some help somewhere in their rotation. Which players would you be looking at for the Thunder if you were in Sam Presti’s shoes?

Stephen: What I love about how Oklahoma City has done with this shorter workup period they have had to focus on the draft is give the players of this class praise. Presti himself said that this class is good for contending teams, and that just makes all of us who have been saying it all season a little happier. That also means OKC is considering themselves as contenders—as they should. With that, are they going to sign up for players who need a healthy helping of development? Are they going to just ignore the last project they selected, who just won G League MVP (laugh if you will)? I’m not so certain.

I’m more of a fan of the Thunder going the route of a player who can play from the jump—preferably a “just add water” guy who has a pathway for improvement as well.

I want to start with a player who is off the beaten trail, and that is California’s Jaylon Tyson. People may not have seen Tyson mocked as high as 12 yet but, his fit with OKC makes a lot of sense to me. He checks a lot of boxes that are considered to be must-haves to play for the Thunder. He posted a Top 40 usage percentage in college this season while shooting 47/36/80. He posted an assist percentage of 23.5 and a turnover percentage of just 17.3, all while being the offensive engine of a team for the first time in his career. He does come with good positional rebounding, posting a percentage of 5.2 on the offensive glass and 16.9 on the defensive side.

Tyson measured in at 6’6.5” without shoes and a 6’8” wingspan. He is a very strong perimeter player, weighing in at over 218 pounds. His size and skill set give the Thunder options in lineup versatility, perhaps having the chance to have one of SGA or J-Dub on the court at all times. His defense at California was not his best work, but the fact that he was the offense could lead evaluators to believe the team could not afford for him to be in foul trouble. Turn on the tape from his last season, and you’ll see a true wing-sized prospect who held his opponents to 30.6% on their three-point attempts, and just 38% on their twos.

Tyson could come in as an experienced, athletic, polished wing option for the Thunder.

Not to rock the boat too much, Nick, but I would be remiss if I didn’t also mention Kyle Filipowski. If you’re looking to find a real 7-footer (in shoes) who can do the whole dribble-pass-shoot thing, you’d be hard-pressed to find another prospect better than Flip. I get the concerns that come with a prospect labeled as a dribble-pass-shoot prospect who shot just under 35% from deep and just over 67% from the line. 34.8% from three isn’t sexy, but we shouldn’t ignore the 6%+ improvement from his freshman year. And while the 67.1% from the free throw line isn’t great, he shot over 76% from the line the year before. The shot looks pretty and, to be frank, Duke’s offense is just hard to enjoy watching.

One of the much under-discussed aspects of Flip’s season was his shot-blocking. Kyle averaged 1.5 blocks per game, posting a block percentage of 5.2. That percentage ranked 30th in all of college hoops among players with a minutes percentage of at least 70. That growth as a weakside rim protector wasn’t expected and wasn’t recognized as it should have been. He can also defend out in space in spurts, which makes me believe that he can play at the four.

Kyle is a fiery competitor and posted high rebounding numbers as well. I think he could have a similar impact to the Thunder (not an identical, one-for-one comparison) as what we see in Minnesota from Naz Reid. Naz isn’t a four or a five—he is a perfect complement to whoever else he is playing with. I think Flip can do something similar with Chet, J-Will, Kenrich, or anyone else the Thunder decide to run out alongside Kyle.

I know there are some other names who have been tossed into the consideration bucket for this team that has very few needs. How are you feeling about Jaylon and Kyle as potential fits? Or are you going to recommend some other guys?

Nick: Filipowski was the first name I was going to mention, and you beat me to the punch. I think that he makes a ton of sense for the Thunder, as someone who can play with Chet in a two-big lineup or take on some backup center minutes. His high level of skill and feel on the offensive end, paired with his improvements on defense, make him a prime candidate for the Thunder in my eyes. It’s not quite Mark Williams to the Hornets a couple of years ago when we at No Ceilings had him going there in pretty much every mock draft we did, but Filipowski to the Thunder just seems like such a hand-in-glove fit to me.

I’m a bit lower on Tyson than you are so I’m not as in on him as the choice here compared to Flip, but I see the vision. He’s another high-feel player who can space the floor and fit into a variety of different lineup contexts. I’m with you on the defensive discussion too—he didn’t do his best work on that end of the floor at Cal, but he has the frame and tools to be much better defensively when he isn’t being asked to be the main guy offensively.

I do want to throw a few more names at you, just to spice things up and expand our list a little bit here. I feel like we need to at least mention Cody Williams, given his older brother’s star turn for OKC, but I think that Cody is a bit more of a project than the Thunder would be looking to add at this point in their contending run—and he’s also pretty likely to be off the board by the time the Thunder pick at #12. Jared McCain might also be off the board by then, but I think he’s a bit more ready to come in and contribute right away. If we’re talking about the rich getting richer, adding McCain’s lethal shooting to the team that ranked #1 in the NBA in three-point percentage last season certainly fits the bill.

The other two are bigs who are slightly further down on consensus boards but fit a somewhat similar profile to Filipowski as big men with skill and shooting potential who can play with or without Chet Holmgren. The first name should not surprise you, given the Sacramento Kings preview that we wrote together last week. Just as Jaylon Tyson isn’t usually mocked this high, DaRon Holmes II is probably not someone who people expect to see mocked this high. Just like with Filipowski, though, Holmes can provide supplemental shot-blocking, a high level of feel offensively, great complementary skills, and a burgeoning shot, as I discussed on a recent episode of the Topic: Thunder podcast (an awesome podcast for Thunder fans, and one we’ve both appeared on recently). He doesn’t quite have the handle that Flip does, but Holmes can fill a lot of gaps for the Thunder as a rotation big man. On a similar note, Kel’el Ware has boosted his stock quite a bit in recent weeks, and he can also provide shot-blocking on one end and shooting touch on the other end.

What do you think, Stephen? Is my list here too big-man focused? Did I leave anybody out?

Stephen: I don’t think it’s too big man focused at all. It could stand to be bigger, if anything. I think we’re somewhat obligated to at least toss out Zach Edey’s name. There is some logic in giving the Thunder a player that could give them a unique look within their lineup, and Edey is about as unique as it gets. He doesn’t shoot (or hasn’t yet, I should say), but he has soft touch and lived at the line at Purdue. He shot over 71% from the free-throw line, so maybe there is some shot projectability if you squint hard enough.

I do like the idea of Cody Williams being a name to consider here. The initial thought of him to OKC will instantly be, “oh, he’ll play with his brother!” and I get that. But this won’t be the same as other siblings getting a shot in the league. Cody is a very good prospect, and he has a ton of potential to be a very, very good pro. He shot the cover off the ball prior to injury, and finished as a plus 40% three-point shooter. The touch around the hoop was stellar, too.

Kel’el Ware could give the Thunder another player that can at least shoot and block shots, while addressing some of the Thunder’s rebounding woes. He posted an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.0, and a defensive rebounding percentage of 26.1. I’m sure Oklahoma City fans would love to have a player gobble up the glass for them. The 42.5% from deep would also give the Thunder a player who could—brace yourselves—play with Chet if OKC would dare to dream with a twin tower rotation.

Jared McCain is a little more of the same with what they have with Isaiah Joe, but maybe the Thunder could prepare for an heir-apparent should they become too expensive too quickly. Holmes makes some sense too but, like you touched on, pick 12 might be a little rich.

There seems to be no single definitive way that OKC has to go. Their needs are few, and their roster is deep. It’s fascinating to think that they have the opportunity to improve through the draft while also having players who will continue their own development. Just when we think we have a good grasp on which way they will or should go, Presti and company make a move that levels up this team. It will be hard to do better than they did last season in terms of the regular season (how do you do better than first place in the West?), but OKC has another shot at landing another player to push them closer to title contention.