Outside Looking In, 2025 Draft Class: Looking at a New Draft Class with a Unique Perspective
Stephen Gillaspie returns to the scouting world and dives into the 2025 NBA Draft after being gone for over three months.
Guess Who’s Back, Back Again…
It’s amazing to be back with you members of the No Ceilings community once again. For those of you who have been with our team for a while, you might be familiar with my on-again-off-again contributions to the team here. You might recall the parent article to what I am releasing today that came out back in April. Similarly named, that piece covered some of the challenges that come with being a husband, father, and draft evaluator in the military. Those challenges have been all that I have known for as long as I have been doing this. Those challenges have helped me to appreciate the time that I do get to be home, and the time that I get to cover the game and process that I truly enjoy.
What’s different about the time that I missed during this draft cycle is that I am returning with months of hoops ahead of us. I came back just in time for workouts and combines for the 2024 NBA Draft Class. I feel that may have been a bit easier compared to this return. The primary reason: the seasons for prospects were mostly over; I just had to catch up. What I am challenged with this time, is that I have to watch film with games continuing to play. Additionally, players are starting to hit strides (or ruts) that are actively changing their trajectory.
For example, Carter Bryant had been playing an inconsistent role for his Arizona team. Fast forward to the 4th of January, and he is having impactful and productive performances. The same thing could be said about UNC’s Ian Jackson. On the opposite side of things, players like Kwame Evans and Michael Ajayi have seen their stock drop compared to preseason expectations. This impacts how evaluators position players on their big boards, and how they fight for them in mock drafts.
Though challenging, I’m always happy to be home—and I’m always happy to be watching prospects. This year’s edition for this piece is going to be a lot of the same as last season. Only this time, I get to evaluate how my preseason projections have played out up into conference play. Obviously, there is still time for things to change, but I want to share with you how things have gone for my personal evaluations thus far. Here are a few quick hits to wet your palette:
I completed 94 individual scouting reports prior to my departure in September (These—and my current In-Season Scouting Reports—are available for NC+ members).
Of my current Top 30, only six players are players who I did not conduct a dedicated preseason scouting report on.
Of my Top 60, 18 were players I didn’t conduct such a scouting report on.
Now that I’ve piqued your interest, let’s get into the observations!
A Tale of Two Talents
“Capture the Flagg” was the theme of the 2025 NBA Draft Class coming into the summer, and it wasn’t necessarily a conversation that anyone would challenge Cooper Flagg to be the future #1 pick. Flagg has been phenomenal to this point, averaging around 17 PPG, 8 RPG, and 4 APG, but he has not been the most efficient from the floor. With shooting splits of 44/27/76, some have been a little more willing to consider another prospect with the number one pick.
Dylan Harper wasn’t even the clear-cut number two player coming into the season. In fact, upon the release of the $DRFT Stock IPOs, Dylan came in as the third prospect behind teammate Ace Bailey. Now, Dylan is averaging 23 PPG, 5 RPG, and 5 APG with shooting splits of 53/37/75. Running the show in Rutgers has given Harper enough support to potentially challenge Cooper in the coming draft.
Personally, after watching the film, I do have Dylan as the top prospect over Flagg, with both players in a tier of their own.
Who Holds the Cards?
Ace Bailey and Derik Queen are two players who came into this season with differing expectations. As mentioned, Ace was a player that many believed to be the second-best player within this class. Until very recently, Bailey has received a lot of criticism for his play. He has had six games where he scored at least 20 points, but has only logged eight assists. The lack of passes resulting in points for teammates has been something that has brought some negative light to the freshman. Despite that, Ace is still widely regarded as a Top 5—if not Top 3—talent for many. He is 4th on my board behind Derik Queen.
I came into the season very high on Queen, as he was 6th on my preseason board. He is now my 3rd overall prospect. Derik has shown a unique feel for the game coming from the big man position. Logging 20 points and 20 rebounds in his debut, Queen has had assists in all but two games, and has shown some positive defensive tools as well. This all comes after entering the season as the 47th player in the IPO rankings.
It’s still early, and I may just be super-proud of my preseason assessment of Derek, but it’s nice to see him come in at #8 on the latest No Ceilings consensus Big Board (that I didn’t contribute to, by the way).
Freshman Phenoms
One thing that I have historically done for this platform is remind you all of what lessons we have learned from previous drafts. This includes how many freshmen typically get drafted in the first round of the NBA draft. Since the 2018 NBA Draft, an average of 13 freshmen have been drafted in the first round of the draft. Knowing this, I try to stay somewhat in step with this trend—normally.
Coming into the year, I had 15 freshmen in my Top 30. This number actually tied the 2023 draft, so I didn’t feel too crazy when I counted the names. Now, I am even higher on the freshmen prospects in this class, as there are 17 within my Top 30.
We’ve already touched on four freshmen, but here are the other names (in order of rank) that I have been impressed with:
The thing to consider with a freshman class as deep as this one is the return factor. Would Carter Bryant or Jase Richardson want to be the last picks in the first round? Would players like Labaron Philon or Khaman Maluach be comfortable going in the second round? It may be too early to ask that question, as these prospects still have months of production to put out, but players do often bet on themselves. The chance to improve their draft stock while pocketing some NIL coin may make too much sense for some of the freshmen in college hoops.
Speaking of returning prospects…
Return on Investment
The performance of some returning prospects has been one of the best stories in college hoops to this point. Collin Murray-Boyles was a player that, to be honest, I was not the biggest fan of last season. After watching some film on him this summer and devoting some time to scout him, I ranked him 10th on my preseason board. He now ranks 6th and could be as high as 4th for me. People may struggle to find the most translatable role for him in the NBA but at some point, you just have to reward a player that can do everything you want on the floor. His defensive rotations have improved. He is a monster on the glass. He is incredibly efficient. His decision-making has taken significant strides. His physicality is NBA-ready. This makes him my top returner in the game.
After losing a lot of talent to the NBA, several people were concerned with the prospect on the UConn Huskies. Without a prominent initiator or elite rim protector, how would their wings and forwards fare? For Alex Karaban, he’s had his best individual season. He’s done his usual thing (you know, shooting over 40% from deep), but he also boasts a block percentage over 5 (career best) and an assist percentage of 14 (career high). His assertiveness has been needed for his team this season, and has been enough to be 11th on my board after debuting at 22 for me during the preseason.
I thought that I was a big fan of Kam Jones by having him 28th on my preseason board. After all, he came in at 39 on the $DRFT IPO. As big as a fan as I have been of Kam Jones, even I couldn’t have seen a Player of the Year season coming from the talented Marquette guard. Putting up 20 PPG, 5 RPG, and almost 7 APG on shooting splits of 52/34/74, Jones has shown he can shoulder the load after his team lost Oso Ighodaro and Tyler Kolek to the NBA. Kam is also snagging 1.7 steals per outing—a career-high. He now ranks 17th on my board.
I’ve long been a fan of Auburn’s Johni Broome, dating back to my days before No Ceilings while he was playing for Morehead State. Broome is the frontrunner for Player of the Year, and is someone that could very well go in the first round. As a long-time rebounding stalwart, Broome is posting a career-best on the glass—grabbing over 11 per game. Rebounding generally translates. Generally, so does blocking. He is blocking 2.6 shots per game, which is his second-highest per-game average in college (also his highest at Auburn). The NBA runs the offense through their big men. Broome has improved his passing numbers every year in college, averaging 3.4 APG this year. His scoring has taken strides every season. He came into the season at 44 for me and is now 22nd on my board.
MacKenzie Mgbako, Nique Clifford, Rasheer Fleming, Tucker DeVries, Danny Wolf, and Maxime Raynaud all have found their way into my Top 30.
A Wealth of Depth
So far, there have been varied and differing opinions on the depth of this class. Being an admitted optimist, I am genuinely pleased with the depth of this class. I’m aware that a good number of the names that I have (and will have) scouted won’t declare for the NBA this season, but NBA front offices have a very good problem this season. They will have to cover a ton of names. The tournaments and combines will feature names that normally would not otherwise be available.
Brooks Barnhizer of Northwestern University and Brice Williams of Nebraska were two players who I was personally excited to watch. I was hopeful that they would be able to produce enough to be fringe second round players. Barnhizer has had a terrific season on both ends on the court, while still having some room to grow as a shooter. Williams is boasting shooting splits that are close to 50/40/90 as the lead shot taker for his team. Both prospects were 58th and 59th on my board, respectively, coming into the year. Brooks is now 52nd on my board with real steam behind him, and Brice is 58th with a lot of time to continue to climb.
Birmingham’s Yaxel Lendeborg is a player who my Draft Sickos cohost, Maxwell Baumbach, and I covered in the summer as a player to keep an eye on as a sleeper. I had him 70th on my preseason board—a range that kept him in striking distance to leap into a draftable range should he prove himself to be consistent. He has done that and then some. Yax’s athleticism has popped, as he is rising up to reject shots and throwing down dunks while remaining a physically gifted glass eater. Lendebord has also shown the ability to have the offense flow through him as a decision-maker at a respectable clip. His consistency has been enough for him to now be the 34th prospect on my board.
Jahmyl Telfort is having himself a season. I had him in a group of players that I labeled “Outside Shots” to be drafted this season. Although he would be 24 in his rookie year, Telfort has been a revelation for his Butler ball club. At 6’7” and 220 pounds, Jahmyl is hooting over 40% from deep, handling the ball very efficiently, and possesses the physical gifts to be a decent defender. After not ranking him coming into this season, Telfort has boosted his stock enough to now be my 56th-ranked player.
Joseph “JoJo” Tugler had some fans during his freshman season with the Houston Cougars last year. He didn’t show a lot of production during the last cycler, which did impact how evaluators felt about him coming into the year. Myself included. That narrative is rapidly changing. Tugler possesses a frame that is reminiscent of former freshman Cougar Jarace Walker. JoJo currently has a block percentage of 16.7, with some of the nastiest rejections you’ll see. He has a very hot motor and gives a ton of effort on both ends. Coming into the season somewhat under the radar, Tugler is now 49th on my board.
A player whose film I love right now is Duke’s Sion James. There is a bit of a show on prospects not named Cooper Flagg for the Blue Devils, but Sion has done a solid job peering out from under it. The counting numbers aren’t sexy, as he is averaging close to 8 PPG, 4 RG, and 3 APG, but he pops on the tape. He’s active on defense, competes on the boards, makes sharp reads, and has the physicality that translates up. Efficiency is the name of the game for James’ game right now, but he has shown enough for me to consider him with a late second round pick.
Javon Small was a player that I liked quite a bit while he played at East Carolina. When he transferred to Oklahoma State, I thought he would be able to rise up draft radars. It took transferring to West Virginia and playing for new coach Darian DeVries for him to receive some palpable draft buzz. Small is putting up averages of about 20 PPG, 5 RPG, and 5 APG as the lead guy while Tucker DeVries is out with an injury. After going completely under the radar coming into this season, Javon has done enough to be in contention for Top 60 consideration for me.
Help Wanted
Toward the top of my second round range of prospects are some names that impressed last season, but have not put up the name numbers they did the year prior. Payton Sandfort is shooting a career-low from deep at 32%, which is pretty damning when a player’s path to the league is shooting. That said, Payton has improved as a playmaker and on the defensive sign of the ball. Though his shot has seemed to disappear, I’m holding out hope that he can bring it back to a respectable number. For now, he is 44th on my board.
Mark Sears had himself a standout year among the 2024 Draft Class, but he elected to come back to Alabama. His field goal percentage is down 10% through non-conference play compared to last year, as is his three-point percentage. He is averaging a career-high 4.4 assists per game, but, as a scorer, Sears has seen his star dim a bit. He’s my 45th-ranked player for the time being, but he’ll need to have a big push in the SEC to maintain that Top 60 status.
Nolan Traore was the 5th prospect on my big board during the summer, as he was for the majority of the basketball community—ranking as the 5th prospect on the $DRFT IPO. He just hasn’t been able to score the ball, which is something we’ve seen other acclaimed international guards struggle with. Nolan has high-end speed while handling the rock, and he does show some good court vision, but he just isn’t producing enough. The question that evaluators have to wrestle with now is: How do we rank a player who was supposed to be a can’t-miss guy? For me, he isn’t even in my Top 60. The efficiency plays a part in that, but I am also somewhat projecting Traore’s willingness to come stateside if he isn’t drafted within the Top 35 picks. That question may be difficult (if not impossible) to answer right now, but there isn’t much that I am seeing that makes me want to take him that high. Luckily, there is plenty of time for him to turn it around…if he can.
This next one hurts, but Hunter Sallis isn’t showing why I had him as a borderline lottery prospect last season. The transfer of Andrew Carr to Kentucky has taken an additional pressure point away from Wake Forest that they simply did not replace. With so much thrust upon Sallis’s shoulders, he has averaged about 18 PPG on a field goal percentage of 45.5%. His three-pointer has fallen to a meek 30%—down over 10% from the year prior. The quickness, defense, and vision have maintained this season, but the lack of efficiency has been a wet blanket for his draft stock. I have Hunter at 31 on my big board, largely due to what I saw last season combined with the current makeup of his team.
Curtains
There are several more prospects I am either concerned with, excited to scout, or wanted to specifically dive in on throughout this piece, but that desire encourages me as I continue to learn more about them with the rest of you. While I am about to sign off, I will leave you with some things that I am specifically focusing on when ranking prospects this season.
Physicality
How tough a player is has been discussed as underrated by those in the draft world for a couple of seasons now, but it cannot be overstated. How well a player can either initiate contact, absorb it, or both, is going to be intently prioritized for me. This is why I can have a player like Collin Murray-Boyles at #6 on my board. Not solely because he is a physical player, but it matters that he is talented with the requisite strength.
Hypotheticals
Projection is a major part of evaluating a player, but it will not be the origin story for a player that I value. “If” is a powerful qualifying word that can help determine the ceiling of a player, but there has a be a floor to stand on. There are such players who are getting a lot of love from the draft world that fit such a mold. If there is not a clear path to an NBA floor for a player in my eyes, their value will be exponentially lower for me compared to what you may see from others.
Positional Musts
This will be more difficult for me to get out all of the nuance that exists in my draft philosophy, but I will outline a few. Shooting is an important skill in the game of basketball, but not all important skills are created equally. It will be much more difficult for a guard or a wing to be valued highly for me if they either 1) do not already, 2) have not shown previously that they can, or 3) do not give signs that they may be able to shoot the ball at a respectable level someday. The NBA has shown us that the vast majority of guards have to be able to shoot the ball. If not, the physicality factor I listed earlier has to be at an elite level. Subsequentially, just because a big man can shoot the ball does not me I will value him highly if he cannot handle the physicality of the NBA. One thing that I have routinely either written about or have spoken to since I have been evaluating talent is that the majority of NBA players were good rebounders, regardless of position. The majority of the prospects that I have, or will, rank within my Top 60 will have solid rebounding numbers—pending they possess truly elite skills elsewhere. This is also a way to assist in partially quantifying physicality.
At the point of writing this article, I have completed over 110 In-Season scouting profiles. There are still plenty of names left for me to dive into that could (and likely will) shape how I feel about the categories I listed above. Names that I am excited to watch based on conversations I’ve had are as follows:
It is a pleasure to join my No Ceilings colleagues to cover this incredible Draft Class, and to be interacting with the No Ceilings Universe once again!
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