Ron Holland and Surf Lessons from Kunu
Ron Holland and Surf Lessons from Kunu
Corey Tulaba breaks down why a lesson from the 2008 film Forgetting Sarah Marshall could help Ron Holland find his footing at the NBA level.
They don’t make comedies like they used to.
In 2008, Jason Segel and Judd Apatow released what is undeniably one of the absolute funniest movies, front to back in the history of time. I will not debate this.
Segel, along with Kristen Bell, Mila Kunis, and Russell Brand led the offense, but even the role players were on a heater.
The surf instructor in the film, Chuck, played by Paul Rudd, has a scene where he is attempting to teach Segel’s character Peter, how to surf. Like any beginner surf lesson, Chuck brings Peter onto the beach to teach him how to stand on his board on the sand before they go out into the ocean. Chuck instructs Peter to “pop up” onto his surfboard, but Peter is doing way too much with his body as he tries to stand on the board. Chuck then explains to Peter that he needs to “do less.”
This scene resonates with me in the way that I view the game of basketball.
As the wise Chuck, or Kunu, as he refers to himself, explains to Peter, sometimes “the less you do, the more you doooo.”
For many young basketball prospects, merely simplifying their game and “doing less” can lead to so much more.
If there is one prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft class that would benefit most from heeding the wise words of Chuck the surf instructor, it would be G League Ignite wing and potential Top 10 pick Ron Holland.
I promise that this isn’t meant as a slight to Holland.
Remember, sometimes doing less allows us to do more.
When you’re a young player in the best league in the world, scaling back your game, keeping it simple, and focusing on the little things are what will typically earn you the trust of a coaching staff. When a player eventually earns that trust, it affords them a longer leash to expand the areas of their game that may need improvement or refinement.
But before we dive too deep into the depths of Holland’s refinement areas, let’s begin with the aspects of his game in which he excels.
Ron Holland was a monster in transition.
Nearly 26% of Holland’s total offensive possessions fell underneath this play type, a number which compares favorably to young athletic NBA wings like Bilal Coulibaly, Cam Whitmore, and Josh Green.
Holland was especially great when he focused on attacking the rim in transition, finishing 71.4% of those 98 possessions.
In semi-transition, Ron was more likely to settle for tough pull-up threes or the dreaded long two1. Every time Holland settled for one of these shots, he bailed out the defense—because when he is aggressive in the open floor, getting downhill with a head of steam, he is just straight-up tough to stop from getting to the rim.
Ron can grab and go, taking the ball coast to coast for the flush or craft layup, and he can likewise fill the lanes, using his straight-line speed to leak out and sky in the air for a rim-rocking slam. He’s comfortable absorbing contact and finishing with extension. When he isn’t finishing, he is able to draw contact and get to the free-throw line.
This is Ron’s most day one ready skill.
The next pathway that Ron can take to contribute effectively early on is as an off-ball cutter.
Cutting was Holland’s most efficient offensive play type with the Ignite, scoring 1.3 PPP. The volume was fairly low, accounting for just 3.2% of his total possessions, however this percentage is not atypical, especially for someone who was operated in such a high usage on ball role. At the next level, when Holland doesn’t have a near 30% usage rate, he should be able to focus more on the play-finishing aspect of halfcourt offense, utilizing 45 cuts and sneaking behind the defense from the corner. Perhaps we’ll even see him utilized as a pick-and-roll screener, where his athletic tools can get him easy efficient opportunities on hard rolls to the rim.
Operating in this kind of off-ball role is not foreign to Ron Holland. In fact, it’s the kind of play style in which Holland previously thrived when he was in high school playing at Duncanville. Before he pivoted to playing more on the ball, Holland was known as the “motor” guy. Committing to a role in which he can focus on the little things, playing like his hair is on fire, rather than trying to lead an offense as a perimeter creator, is when Holland is typically at his best.
While Holland’s defensive motor would often fluctuate with the Ignite (perhaps stemming from his increased offensive load), he’d often leave his fingerprints on games by sacrificing his body by diving on the floor for loose balls or flying in out of nowhere (sometimes a bit too aggressively) to crash the offensive glass. These are the types of plays that endear one to a coaching staff and help build trust.
Ron has also shown a penchant throughout his youth career for translating that frenetic energy to the other side of the ball, which has led to his reputation as one of the strongest perimeter defensive prospects in this class.
When Holland really locks in defensively, he becomes an inconvenient pest for his opposition with the versatility to impact the game in many ways.2
At the NBA Draft Combine, Holland measured at 6’6.5” without shoes, which makes him about 6'8” with shoes. Add in a nearly 6’11” wingspan, and you have the recipe for a wing with pretty good size and measurables which will allow him to swing between multiple positions defensively.
When Holland is guarding on the ball, he has shown impressive flashes of lateral mobility to slide with his man, quick hands to poke the ball away when a ball-handler gets sloppy, the ability to get skinny and slither around screens, and an appetite for shooting gaps and running down blocks in transition—patiently waiting to pin the ball off the backboard like a predator hunting its prey.
Holland’s penchant for creating defensive events was one of his standout skills with the Ignite. Holland finished the season with a STL% of 3.7% and a BLK% of 1.6%. The only other freshman-aged prospect in the 2024 class to accumulate a STL% > 3 and a BLK% > 1.5 was Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard. Ron did it in a pro league as an eighteen-year-old. Pretty sick stuff.
Holland also displayed the ability to finish defensive possessions by hitting the defensive glass. He wasn’t necessarily a dominant defensive rebounder per se, but he was more than solid. His DREB% of 17.4, per RealGM, was unmatched by any of his freshman-aged college peers3.
These types of positive traits typically establish a fairly solid floor for a prospect.
However, when these particular skills are a prospect’s standout skills, they traditionally fall more in line with the kind of foundation you’d want if you were drafting a prospect that was viewed in the vein of a role player.
Role players are essential to winning at the highest levels, and becoming a good or great one isn’t easy. Holland certainly has the tools to become a great one.
The question I’ve often asked myself in regards to Holland’s evaluation is: is he willing to be a great role player?
When you’ve spent your most recent developmental season playing with the freedom to shoot any shot you want, without any kind of recourse, learning bad habits, and getting a taste of what heavy on-ball usage feels like, do you then have the mentality to scale back into a role you may be more suited for at the next level or do you want to continue playing your way?
The answer most certainly could be yes. I’m not taking that off the table. We see players adapt their game to the situation they are drafted into all the time.
As a rookie, Amen Thompson completely shifted his play style from jumbo point guard lead initiator at OTE to Shawn Marion-esque Matrix Re-Loaded badass in Houston. Thompson may not be the Rockets point guard of the future, but he plays to his strengths and is a hell of a building block because of all the ways in which he can impact the game.
Even if Thompson never develops into the aforementioned full-time jumbo initiator, he’ll still most likely provide positive value in his draft slot for the Rockets. However, thinking big picture, Thompson’s loose handle and non-existent jump shot may also mitigate his impact and put Houston in precarious decision-making positions in playoff settings if teams ultimately don’t have to respect him in a halfcourt setting out on the perimeter.
This is where some of my concerns with Holland the star start to coalesce.
When Segel is first introduced to Rudd’s character in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Rudd introduces himself as Kunu. When asked by Peter what Kunu means, he replies: “it means Chuck”.
“Chuck” is, unfortunately, what Holland did a lot of during his time with the Ignite.
There is context to the decision-making issues and lackadaisical nature of the Ignite program, a program which no longer exists and was not built to compete for a G League title. Still, at the end of the day, habits were still being formed, and breaking away from those habits aren’t always easy. We’ve seen with Ignite alum like Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, that the process of breaking old habits often dies hard.
The goal of the Ignite program wasn’t to win games4, and there are positives to giving prospects the freedom to explore their own capabilities, but you have to walk a very fine line in making sure that those habits don’t become so ingrained into a players approach that they can’t break away from them. No matter the context, a sub-30 % three-point shooter never needs to shoot this transition pull-up three with 21 seconds left on the clock. This is the kind of NBA shot that has to be earned. For all the positive things Holland is capable of doing, these are the types of plays that take things off of the table, and when you actively hurt the system in which you are playing, you are more likely to take a ride on the pine pony. It is not easy to develop if you are not on the court.
Holland would often sway between overly confident and non-confidence as a shooter. On one possession, he may force a tough jumper off the bounce. On another, he’d hesitate to shoot an open catch and shoot jumper; instead, he holds the ball, jab-steps, and then lets fly a contested shot free of positive momentum or rhythm.
Even when Holland wasn’t hesitant to shoot, teams did not respect the shot from any range. Teams would go under Holland ball screens and he would often fall prey to their trap by settling for the dreaded long two.
I am far from anti-middy, in fact I’m a big believer in its value. However, it is my personal belief that there are good midrange shots and not so good midrange shots.
A good middy may occur around the elbow extended. In a ball screen scenario, it could look like when a player comes tight off the screen and patiently maneuvers his way to the elbow as a big is in a heavy drop. These shots can warp a defense because when you can consistently knock them down, the big is forced to step up earlier, and the weak-side has to sink closer to the rim, which opens up playmaking opportunities. Think of the way that Chris Paul operates in this space. Or just as effective is when we see an elite midrange guy like Kawhi operate. Kawhi is going to combine finesse with brute strength to face you up, turn his back, and footwork his way into that same fifteen foot range. In both of these scenarios the shot was created by the offensive player.
A bad middy often happens in the space in-between the free throw line and three-point line. A tougher, deeper shot without the statistical benefit of an extra point and is often dictated by the defense.
Ron settled for a lot of shots in this space.
A lot of this probably stems from inexperience playing with the ball in his hands as much as he did with the Ignite. Showing patience coming off a ball screen when you have a lighting quick first step is something that really requires a lot of reps to develop. A young player’s first instinct is to pull up and attack, and at lower levels, it’s easy to use those physical advantages to get to the rim regardless of the coverage. But as the physical advantages diminish some, utilizing pace and feel becomes important, and is a process that typically requires reps to develop. As bigs would settle into a deep drop and Ron’s man would go under the screen, Holland would often bail the defense out by settling for the deep two. Make or miss these are the kinds of shots that defenses wanted Holland to take. He’ll need to learn that he needs not oblige, or to make sure he either gets a little closer or his feet are settled behind the three-point line.
Shot selection was a large contributing factor to Holland’s struggles as a shooter but far from the only issue within those struggles and with regards to his future shooting projection. As it stands, Holland also has many mechanical flaws in his jumper that contribute to his troubling statistical shooting profile.
Let’s break down Holland’s shooting mechanics.
To get into his shot, Ron uses a one-motion form that starts with a low, often below waist-level pick-up. Holland’s base features his feet separated about shoulder-width apart with a knee valgus5, and his body tilted around 15 degrees. Things start to become disjointed with the upper body, as the ball has to come up across the left side of Holland’s core, due to the low pick-up. Instead of a traditional 90-degree elbow bend that aligns with a shoulder, Holland’s elbow flares at around 45 degrees before extension, crossing over into his line of vision. The ball sits firmly in Ron’s right palm instead of resting more on his fingertips with enough space to fit a few fingers between palm and ball, and his guide hand rests in front of the ball instead of to its side, causing a slight contest of his own shot upon its release.
Using a non-traditional shooting form is fine when there are results that support a track record of success, but as it stands, Holland’s mechanical flaws lead to extreme misses and less-than-ideal results. His form will have to be built from the ground up—a process that requires patience and buy-in.
Earlier, I used Amen Thompson as a comparative example of a prospect who is also a great athlete6, who also plays with a great motor, but who also struggles as a shooter. There is, however, a large differentiator between Holland and Thompson as prospects, which lies in their decision-making and processing.
Thompson has played with the ball in his hands for years and has used that time to build comfort making decisions through different defensive coverages and attention. Even in a new role where he isn’t the primary usage guy, Amen is able to use the skills he developed as an on-ball player to make good decisions outside of that role. Whether Thompson developed his processing through years of reps or it is some innate ability he was born with, it has allowed him to move fast but play slow, leveraging the pressure his athleticism allows him to put on the rim to collapse the defense, map the floor, and make plays for his teammates.
Holland was thrust into a truly heavy on-ball role for the first time with the Ignite, so it’s not entirely surprising that he has experienced some bumps in the road. Unlike Thompson, Holland moves fast but was usually forced to play fast, as defenses could speed him up when they applied pressure. Holland is talented enough that when a team would apply said pressure, he could use his tools to instinctually attack the paint and finish at the rim7. But it also led to some processing deficiencies that star level creators need to possess.
That’s not to say that Holland’s season was devoid of playmaking flashes. He did finish with an AST% of 16.1 per RealGM, which is encouraging. I thought he showed some particularly good stuff in transition, where the extra space on the floor allowed him to more easily make the right reads and lessened the risk of the home run type reads.
Still, the flashes were just that—flashes—and I’m not quite sure they were abundant enough, especially in the halfcourt, that I would be sold on Holland developing into a plus offensive processor/playmaker at the next level.
Holland finished the season with more turnovers than assists and struggled to leverage his scoring to make plays for his teammates when the game slowed down.
Many of Holland’s turnovers were not even necessarily passing-related, though some most certainly were.
On drives, Holland would often force his way into tight spaces instead of playing into space, leading to aggressive charges or throw aways as a result of burying himself too deep into no ma’s land. Holland would also get a little too antsy in anticipation of a drive, drawing travels from moving before putting the ball on the deck. You might even catch him dribbling up the sideline into a double vs a press or getting stripped due to his loose handle and lack of side-to-side wiggle.
When looking at a star-level outcome in a Holland evaluation, I ask myself if Holland’s offensive efficiency can reach a point where it can potentially make up for the playmaking ability that he may lack. If the shot never comes around, what is the path?
It’s a heavy question for a team investing a high lottery pick.
Not all teams that are drafting in the lottery need Ron Holland to hit a star-level outcome to hit on their selection—which, if you’re an optimist, is why you may be firmly seated on the Ron Holland bandwagon.
If Holland were to land in say Charlotte, where he could slide into a third or fourth offensive option role, playing off LaMelo’s genius playmaking and Brandon Miller’s gravity and scoring equity, I think he could really thrive if he were to buy into operating as an agent of chaos on both sides of the ball. Likewise, I think Utah is an intriguing fit due to how much spacing that roster can put around him. These are the kinds of situations where Holland may be tasked with doing less, but could ultimately lead to a more successful developmental outcome.
Things get a little murkier for me if he were to land in say, Detroit8, where I question how effective he could be with the lack of space and potential loyalty to the former lottery prospects that are already established in those spots. Spots where the roster construction is a little clunky, roles aren’t so clearly defined, and there is an insistence on winning in the short term.
Going back to the scene in Forgetting Sarah Marshall when Kunu is teaching Peter how to surf for the first time, he eventually just proclaims: “Yeahhh, that wasn't quite it, but come on, we’re gonna figure it out, out there. Let’s go surfing.”
It’s OK to try to surf when you’re raw and inexperienced by going out into the ocean and making some mistakes. Much like Peter and his continuous failures to stand on his board, Holland had to get the reps in both failure and success to figure out what he can and can’t do on the court during the 2023-24 G League season.
But not every wing prospect has to turn out to be Jaylen Brown or Paul George to have a successful NBA career. Sometimes it’s just as cool to scale your game back and still be as impactful as Aaron Gordon has been in Denver.
Holland may not be meant to be a high-usage on-ball wing at the next level, but that doesn’t have to stop him from finding his footing, popping up on his board, and riding some waves.
Holland shot 21.4% on 14 transition jump-shots.
Holland has some things he needs to clean up off the ball where he’d have trouble processing multiple actions. There were times when he was more focused on his man than the primary action, turning his back to the ball instead of playing flat with his head on a swivel so that he can see both his man and the ball. Then there were times when he completely ball watched, leading to his man gaining inside position for offensive boards or backdoor cuts. On the ball, the effort wasn’t always consistent, leading to some blow-bys. Perhaps an indication that he was expending more effort on offense and will ultimately balance out as he slides into a more appropriate role.
Ignite teammate Matas Buzelis finished his season with a DREB% of 18.4, so some potential noise there.
Though maybe it should have been in retrospect.
Knock knees.
Exceptional in Amen’s case.
Though Holland wasn’t great at the rim, finishing just 53% in the half-court, I still buy the flashes of creativity and touch. He becomes fairly predictable being a heavy right hand finisher, but there is a lot to believe in.
Duh.
Spot on takes!