San Antonio Spurs 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Preview

The Spurs are the next feature team for our lottery preview series. More picks, more fun!

Maxwell: When discussing team building, the first thing I always ask myself is, “does this team have a franchise cornerstone?” Right now, the Spurs don’t just have a franchise cornerstone—they may have THE franchise cornerstone. Expectations were sky-high for Victor Wembanyama coming into his rookie season. Still, he matched, and dare I say, exceeded them. He averaged 20 and 10, swatted 3.6 shots per game, and even continued to read the floor better, posting a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. He won Rookie of the Year and made the All-Defensive team. Realistically, I don’t think anyone could have asked for more. 

Now, the question becomes, how do you accentuate what Wembanyama is bringing to the table and get him on the path to compete for a title? Having Wembanyama is awesome, but ultimately, this is still a team that won 22 games last year. Part of that was by design, but it does speak to how much is needed to hit that next level. I love Devin Vassell’s blend of size, shooting, and feel. Keldon Johnson is clearly a really solid player. I think I’m still more of a Jeremy Sochan believer than most, even if his efficiency has left a lot to be desired and the point guard experiment didn’t work out too well. But still, there are a lot of gaps to be filled, and no one outside of Vassell feels like a lock to be on the roster three years from now, from my perspective at least.

Personally, I want Wembanyama at the five. Can he switch? Yes. Is he good in space? Yes. But personally, I want my really giant, mobile big man with super sharp rim-protecting instincts around the rim. I also want to surround him with other shooters who have length. That opens up the interior for him on offense and can hopefully make his life a little easier on defense. I also really want to get him some set up guys. Not guards who JUST set him up, because I need those guys to have their own gravity. A guard who can put it in the bucket AND feed Wembanyama on a consistent basis is the dream. 

What do you ultimately want your team to look like around Wembanyama? Are you more open to pairing him with a traditional big, or are you thinking along similar lines?

Stephen: The Spurs are in a no-lose situation. They can make almost any move and come out on top because of Wemby. That’s not to say they should be careless, but Vic can complement almost any sort of player type. His floor spacing makes it okay to take a talented wing who may need time to develop a jumper. If they take one of the undersized guards in this class, he can cover up their mistakes if they are outmatched defensively. To answer your question on Wemby’s best position, I like the idea of keeping him at the five.

Look at OKC, with Chet Holmgren being their anchor all the way to the second round of the playoffs in his first season. Cleveland looked their best in the postseason when they treated Evan Mobley as a center. The Boston Celtics looked unbeatable in the playoffs with floor-spacing big men like Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. The NBA is telling us that these malleable big men playing the five leads to the more efficient offenses in the league. San Antonio can–and should–take a similar approach, and they have a couple of Top 10 picks to lay the groundwork that can build Wembanyama up in that role. 

In my opinion, Maxwell, the next question is: what player types should the Spurs target to best accentuate Victor? If we are looking at the teams that I mentioned earlier, they all have some commonalities. For one, Vic would need someone who can apply pressure on their own. Do we believe Vassell could be that guy? I wouldn’t forgo taking another player that can put some pressure on the defense regardless of how I feel about Devin’s pressure. The problem with this draft is that there isn’t a clear prospect that checks all of the boxes of a rim-pressure player. The closest player in that range, Maxwell, has an ACL injury. Do we want to stall out year two of Vic waiting for a good portion of the season for a Nikola Topic to return? If he does return, it is highly unlikely he’ll be fully ready to go. 

That leaves some other player types that could maximize the second season of Wemby. One archetype would be the evergreen 3-and-D prospect. The highest player on many boards is Zaccharie Risacher. The problem with that is Risacher is largely believed to be a Top 2 prospect. So, what do you do next?

Personally, I’m a fan of players that are reliable floor spacers in this situation. It’s a fairly safe route to go–even though it may not be the most sexy. The top floor spacing options within range of the fourth pick start with Reed Sheppard. Reed had one of the most efficient scoring seasons in college basketball, going for 8.2 threes per 100 possessions while shooting over 50% from deep. Sheppard comes with some extra stuff to his game, beyond the shooting. He recorded a steal percentage of 4.6 and a block percentage of 2.5. He is a very good athlete, able to hem up opposing point guards on a consistent basis. He is a bit positionally limited as a one, but it’s possible that he could share backcourt minutes with other undersized guards as well. Think of how the Knicks or Pacers are able to run multiple guard lineups regularly.  

He could be hunted defensively, but maybe that isn’t a major concern when you have one of the better defenders in the league helping him out. One of the larger points to be made about bringing in Reed is that he can help stabilize the offense. We constantly hear about how the Spurs already have a player that can do that in Tre Jones. Yes, while Tre is a Spurs player, it is becoming apparent that San Antonio is fine looking at another player to take the reins at this point. Reed isn’t a floor-bending passer, but he is more than capable. Having someone who is a nuclear shooter, is athletic, and sees the floor well can help unlock different aspects of Victor’s game. There is a belief that Reed could come off of the board with the third pick, but Houston has also been very public in their pick being available. Someone may trade up for another player, which could send Reed to the Spurs.

We don’t need to travel too far to find another potential consideration for the fourth pick, with another SEC prospect, Dalton Knecht, potentially being an option here. Dalton is an older prospect, sure, but he could come to this team as a “just add water” player. He has good size, as he measured in at 6’5.25” without shoes, while having a 6’9” wingspan. He also posted at 39-inch vertical. Dalton will draw the “shooter” tag for obvious reasons, but the best reason would be that he shot just a tick under 40% on his threes on 12.1 threes per 100. He also has dunked the ball at least 20 times over the past two seasons. He was the offense for Tennessee, and he was still able to convert the majority of his shots as the only reliable floor spacer. That matters.

Admittedly, he has some room to grow as a defender. There isn’t a track record of him being a plus defender, but it’s worth noting that he did improve in his lone season with the Volunteers on that side of the ball. There could be even more untapped potential (yes, even at his advanced age) to grow more defensively. Especially considering he likely won’t be carrying a usage percentage of 30% with the Spurs. 

Do you like the names that I’m considering with the fourth pick for the Spurs here, Maxwell? Would you consider some other names? 

Maxwell: I’m so glad you brought up my guy Reed. I would love him in San Antonio, even if I have my doubts that he falls that far. He’s not going to be the most downhill guy, but in that case, the rim pressure is going to come from the 7’4” guy rolling to the basket anyway. I really trust him as a table setter, and the on-ball defensive concerns wouldn’t be as serious of an issue here.

Since you touched on Reed, let’s talk about another Kentucky guard who could make sense here—Rob Dillingham. Yes, he’s skinny, yes, he’s got defensive concerns. But Dillingham is an exceptional space creator on the perimeter with NBA range. He’s both creative and calculated, mixing his ridiculous dribble combinations with ball screen manipulation to create advantages. He hit 44.4% of his threes on over 10 attempts per 100 possessions. While he might not be the most consistent passer just yet, I like how he sees the game, and I think he can get there. Dillingham would bring them a point guard who could space the floor, play off other guys, and create for his teammates on occasion. It’s been a while since San Antonio has seen a scoring guard with his dynamism. While it’s often discussed as a great destination for Dillingham, it’s important to note that he checks a lot of boxes the Spurs need, too. 

If you want to go in a more defensive-oriented direction, what about Ron Holland? I know I mentioned him in our Bulls preview, too. But I kind of like the idea of him here. He certainly won’t help with their spacing concerns out of the gate. But he would give the Spurs one of the most formidable up-and-coming defenses in the league. This could lighten Vic’s defensive burden and allow him to really gear up on offense. The sheer playmaking mania of Holland and Wembanyama would be otherworldly. While Holland is often knocked for being best in transition, the playmaking Wembanyama brings at the five will create heaps of transition opportunities. Holland took much better care of the ball down the stretch, and I’m more optimistic about his playmaking feel than some others. Yeah, the shot is a work in progress. But he’s way better than someone like Derrick Jones was at the same age in just about every respect. He’d give the Spurs a high-upside wing who tremendously raises their ceiling. Plus, we always talk about how wings and forwards are tougher to acquire. Why not lock in a high-potential one right now at #4 when guards are generally easier to acquire? 

Those are the guys we’re eyeing at #4, but what about the #8 spot for you? 

Stephen: Some great names there, Maxwell! I was actually considering Rob with the eighth pick–for all of the reasons that you mentioned. Holland is a good name to drop, and he may be there with San Antonio’s second pick, too.

Is this where we start talking about Tidjane Salaun? Now, we’ve discussed him many times–and personally, this is rich for me. HOWEVER, Salaun is an undeniable upside player. He is also Wemby’s countryman. For those who believe that to be silly, we’ve seen players play together based on prior relationships. Also, if San Antonio goes with a more instant-impact player, it wouldn’t be crazy for them to go with the guy whose stock is strapped to a rocket. He plays with a no-stop motor. He measured very well at the Italian combine. Wemby has great size, but imagine pairing him with a forward that measured out. Salaun measured out at 6’10” with a 7’2” wingspan. 

There are concerns with his offense. He took a ton of bad jumpers, but you have to give him credit for the experimentation. He was a negative assist-to-turnover guy but as the season ended, he began to get better at some short-roll looks and dump-offs. He rebounded well–particularly on the offensive glass. What makes me iffy on this pick being possible is the strange “they must compete now” narrative that started circulating after the regular season ended. I get the appeal of getting this player that could be his class's Giannis Antetokounmpo, but does it appeal to your generational talent? If he answers “yes”, then strap in.

If the Spurs do want to get someone who can contribute from day one, who can shoot, and who can defend, they can check a lot of those boxes by drafting Devin Carter. I know, I know. We don’t see his name to the Spurs a lot, but could you imagine pairing this honey badger with their alien? San Antonio could be looking at two all-defensive talents on their growing team. Carter makes sense, as you could let Victor continue to develop his on-ball creation. Depending on who San Antonio selects with the fourth pick–say, a wing–choosing Devin still allows them to space the floor, as he connected on almost 38% of his threes. He can also take on the more difficult assignments. Carter is “small” in stature in the most literal sense; he measured in at 6’2.25” without shoes. He does have a 6’8.75” wingspan, and recorded some of the best agility metrics we have ever seen. Not a bad way to be about 6’4” on the court.

He also rebounds his tail off, having just put up a defensive rebounding percentage of 23.7. He doesn’t get a ton of love for his decision-making, but Devin had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.3. That doesn’t scream orchestrator, but he is a solid connective passer. He also got downhill on a consistent basis, posting a free throw rate of 37.6 while throwing down 26 dunks. He weighed in at 193, and he is incredibly well-built. Carter has the NBA bloodline factor going for him, too, as his dad, Anthony Carter, played in the league for 13 years. This class doesn’t have many sure things within it, but Devin may be the closest thing to one.

Who do you have within this range for them?

Maxwell: I’m so glad you brought up Salaun. If they go guard with the first pick, I actually love that swing here. Part of having Victor Wembanyama is that it’s going to be tough to “stay bad.” This might be the last time they get to pick this high.

Salaun is volatile, there’s no doubt about it. He made 43.6% of his halfcourt layups. His shot is inconsistent. Defensively, he gets beat way more often than someone with his measurements should. But still…it’s tough to find guys with Salaun’s tools, and his upward trajectory has been stellar. The shot-making flashes are awesome. He did well on transition, pick-and-pop, and threes off screens. He’s super active off the ball. His assist-to-turnover numbers were better this year than they were in his play for Espoirs a year ago. He’s an active defender who covers ground well and generates a lot of steals. It’s probably going to take him some time to put it all together. But if the Spurs can be patient with Salaun, his size and mobility, alongside Wembanyama, would be a nightmare for opposing teams. 

I like the idea of Devin Carter, but it might be the tiniest bit too rich for me at #8. I know Nikola Topic is hobbled, but the idea of him alongside Wembanyama is extremely intriguing. Again, he’s going to help cover up some of Topic’s defensive deficiencies. But offensively, he’d immediately be the best creator and passer on the team. Well, whenever he plays, at least. Topic’s dynamism and creativity as a downhill creator, particularly on a well-spaced floor, should help to collapse defenses and start the domino sequence far more consistently. While playing for Mega in the Adriatic League, an astounding 50.3% of his halfcourt shots came at the basket, and he made a ridiculous 67.8%. That’s elite rim pressure and elite finishing. Throw in a dazzling passing arsenal, and there’s a lot to like. 

San Antonio also has picks at 35 and 48. Any deep cuts you like for them if they actually make those picks in the second? I’m guessing they’ll probably trade them so they don’t have to start the year with four rookies. But I’d like an older, productive prospect like Riley Minix, Isaiah Crawford, Jonathan Mogbo, or Pelle Larsson in that range. Anyone you’re eyeing?

Stephen: You won’t hear me say any team should pass on an Isaiah Crawford. He is a textbook 3-and-D forward who is my favorite sleeper in this glass. I wonder how well Mogbo’s skills would fit with a Wembanyama. Not saying it wouldn’t work, it’s just like, would Wemby be in a corner on the break while Jonathan dribbles down the floor? I sort of dig it. 

There are a few prospects in this range I’ll throw out. Trentyn Flowers could be a very high-upside prospect for the Spurs to explore. He didn’t have the best showing in the NBL, but he is a fairly athletic wing who showed a lot of confidence in his vertical abilities, slashing, and competitiveness in a very physical league. AJ Johnson, should he be available, could also be a fun investment for a lot of the same reasons. The younger brother of the Lakers’s Max Christie, Cam Christie may have the type of upside the Spurs could invest in as well. He shot the ball incredibly well at the University of Minnesota, going for 39.1% on 10.6 threes per 100 possessions. That sort of shooting with a glimmer of on-ball ability in a player who will still be 18 on draft night could be very enticing. 

The Spurs are playing with house money, Maxwell. They have their generational talent, that has so many skills that he can bring out the best in his teammates, while helping to cover for their weaknesses. I’m sure that no matter who they pick, their fans–and fans of basketball at large–will be incredibly excited to watch San Antonio next season.