The Understated Upside of Tyler Smith | The Prospect Overview

G League Ignite prospect Tyler Smith brings a bankable combination of size and shooting to the table, but don't overlook his upside. PLUS: San Francisco vs. Saint Mary's in the MMGOTW and Quick Hits!

Feature: The Understated Upside of Tyler Smith

In a few of my recent columns, I’ve explored a similar theme—players with size who can shoot threes and take care of the ball. Those are three of the most common traits among NBA rotation players. While Ben Humrichous and Baylor Scheierman profile more as potential second round value plays, today, we’re looking at a bigger proposition. G League Ignite prospect Tyler Smith meets the above criteria, but he’s firmly in the first round mix. There are good reasons for that—he’s younger (19 years old), he’s taller (6’11”), he’s more athletic, and he’s getting the job done on a professional basketball team. He does the simple things well, but given those additional positives, Smith has become one of my favorite prospects in this class. Let’s get into the nuts and bolts of what makes him so interesting!

Size and Shooting

Just on a surface level, a 6’11” 19-year-old who is hitting 39.0% of his threes on good volume should raise eyebrows. But the fact that Smith is doing it from the NBA three-point line is all the more intriguing. Even better, Smith isn’t just a “parked in the corner” shooter. There’s a genuine level of NBA functionality to how he gets his triples.

At 225 pounds, he’ll enter the league with his frame in a good place, and he’s more than willing to screen for his teammates. As a pick-and-pop shooter, he’s demonstrated the ability to make contact, set his feet, and knock down a three. Per Synergy, he’s converted 37.8% as a pop man on the year. He can move into his shot in other ways, too. Smith has gone 8-for-17 on transition threes and 5-for-7 on triples coming off ball screens. While most teams won’t want him sprinting around the court constantly as a way to get open, the fact that he has the speed and coordination to run, gather himself, and drain long jumpers is highly appealing. Plus, given his height, it’s tough to impede his release, which is why he’s still managed to drain 36.8% of his guarded three-point attempts.

I feel like I say this a lot when I talk about shooters, but it bears repeating. If a player is going to hang their hat on their shooting at the next level, they need to be able to hit tough threes. The NBA game is fast-paced. Big, athletic bodies are constantly flying around all over the place. Easy looks are tough to come by, especially when the scouting report notes that a team needs to close out hard on a shooter. If you’re going to be a shooter, an opponent isn’t just going to let you spot up. You have to be able to move, screen, and shoot over contests. Tyler Smith has proven he can do those things as a 6’11” 19-year-old playing in a professional league while shooting from the NBA line.

Additional Scoring Stuff

Tyler Smith’s jump shot can be a weapon inside the arc, too. He’s shown some tantalizing flashes off the bounce in the mid-range. Again, there’s NBA functionality to how he goes about his business here. Smith isn’t going out of his way to face guys up 1v1 and then launching contested jumpers to show that he’s a bucket getter. Instead, he operates within the flow of the offense and takes what’s given to him. If he’s got the ball in a zoom action or if he’s dribbling into a handoff, and that leads to an opening, he’ll pull the trigger. When the defense miscommunicates and leaves him open, he’ll shoot. If he realizes he has a smaller man in front of him who can’t meet his release point, Smith is more than happy to take (and make) shots off the dribble. Per Synergy, Smith is 3-for-10 off the bounce from three, and 7-for-19 on his pull-up twos in the halfcourt. These numbers won’t knock your socks off, but they’re an encouraging starting point for someone his age, height, and archetype.

It’s not all just shooting, though. Smith is a big-time finisher and ranks in the top 20 for dunks among G League players. He can get up well off either one or two feet. Add in his long arms, and he’s a serious threat when he rolls to the rim. Plus, given how worried teams are about surrendering threes to him, he can use that gravity to change direction off ball and dart downhill. The Ignite have found him on a few lobs by using his shooting as a decoy before having him move back toward the rim on screen-the-screener actions. He also has solid instincts for when his defender has zoned out off ball, allowing him to cut effectively. His speed, size, and motor also make him a rim threat in transition. Currently, he ranks in the 73rd percentile at the rim, per Synergy. So, while Smith’s shooting is his big selling point, his developing pull-up game and finishing arsenal make him a well-rounded scoring threat.

Passing

Tyler Smith might not be a jumbo initiator, but he’s a reliable decision-maker with more juice than he gets credit for. A big part of why I gravitate toward Smith is his decisiveness—rarely does he bring the offense to a halt. He won’t have to adjust from being a “stop and survey” player to a “.5s” guy. Smith already plays at an NBA tempo. When he’s open, he shoots, and when he isn’t, he keeps the ball moving. While playing quickly, he’s still savvy enough to read the opposing defense and limit his mistakes. Many young bigs struggle to maintain a positive assist-to-turnover ratio at the college level, but Smith is averaging 1.5 APG to 1.3 TOV.

Smith may not be a short roll passing dynamo like Nikola Jokic, but he’s got some great building blocks. In a high ball screen setting, he could be a real threat as the safety valve in 4-on-3 settings. He’s a pull-up threat, he can make the right swing pass, and he’s also had flashes wiring the ball to baseline cutters. Smith is also great at getting in the way after handoff passes. When he’s dropping it off to a perimeter player, Smith consistently finds ways to get the ball to his teammate before obstructing the defender. It’s a little thing, but it’s also a little thing that a lot of young players don’t have the presence of mind or the willingness to do on a consistent basis. Add in the occasional heads-up outlet pass, and it’s evident that there’s some real creativity in here. He’s going to come into the league ready to make decisions, which is great—but he has a path to develop into more than a bog-standard, role-playing big man on that front.

Driving and Touch

No prospect is perfect. There are two areas of Tyler Smith’s offensive game that need the most work: his driving and his inside touch. At the present time, Smith is not an effective downhill attacker with the ball in his hands. His first step isn’t that quick, and it’s often too short, minimizing his ability to create an advantage. He’s also very upright with the ball, making it easier for defenders to knock him off his line and pick up his dribble. By taking a lower, faster, and longer initial stride, it would be easier for him to get into the heart of the defense. Additionally, he needs to work on his left hand. He has 39 driving possessions listed on Synergy. Of those, 33 are going right, three are straight, and three are going left. Teams are going to take note of that in the playoffs if he doesn’t develop that area of his game.

Given Smith’s shooting gravity and proclivity for finishing above the rim, one might expect the game tape to show a lot more, “pump fake, straight line drive, dunk” type stuff. Instead, his drives often lead to him settling for pull-ups. That’s an okay shot for him, but I’d like him to get to the basket more often. Still, he needs work there, too. While he’s a tremendous off-ball finisher, he struggles when he gets to the cup on his own. Per Synergy, Smith is only converting 42.6% of his halfcourt layups. Because of his previously noted posture, he can’t explode as well at the cup or rise through contact. He’ll often take off from too far away and settle for inferior angles at the basket. By tweaking how he attacks and continuing to grow stronger, I’m optimistic that Smith can improve on this front. Moses Moody was another lanky shooter with a good frame who struggled with halfcourt layup touch, and he’s taken tremendous strides as a finisher.

I think it’s really important not to hyper-fixate on a prospect’s flaws, especially if they are good at basketball in a way that gets them on an NBA floor. Brandin Podziemski isn’t the biggest, but he came into the league ready to dribble, pass, shoot, and rebound. Cam Whitmore has flaws as a playmaker, but he’s an unbelievable athlete in every sense who can shoot and defend multiple positions. Does Tyler Smith need to do a lot of work on this front? Absolutely. But his effective play-finishing skill set as a 6’11” 19-year-old will get him a serious foot in the door. What he does well is going to be enough to get him the high-level reps and developmental attention he needs.

Defensive Strengths

Tyler Smith’s defense has its positives and negatives. Let’s start with the good stuff, though. Over the last year, his recognition has started to come along, especially as a low man. Because he moves well and has spring off one and two feet, he can be a threat as a weakside rim protector. He’s been more consistent when it comes to staying big off the ball. Smith uses his hands well, whether it’s to get in low around the basket or get into a ball handler’s dribble. Purely from a playmaking standpoint, his 4.2 BLK% and 1.8 STL% during the G League regular season are solid marks for a 4/5 hybrid big. When he commits to sitting down in his stance, his length and lateral agility make him exceedingly difficult to get around.

Zooming out, the building blocks are really solid. At his best, Smith displays switchability and rim protection. His length and speed help him to guard the ball on an island. Add in his leaping ability, and there’s a chance for him to be an effective and versatile ball screen defender. It’s also encouraging that he’s on an upward trajectory as a shot blocker. His 4.2 BLK% during regular season play is up from his 3.0 BLK% during the Showcase Cup portion of the calendar.

Defensive Improvement Areas

Again, no prospect is perfect. While Smith has some great moments on defense, he’s still prone to lapses. Off the ball, he’s not always totally certain where he needs to go rotationally. He can get bogged down with miscommunication on off-ball screens. In ball screen settings, he’ll occasionally be too heavy on his feet. That will either allow his man to get a jump start on his roll to the rim or cause the ball handler to blow by him if it’s a switch. Sometimes, he can be too narrow and upright at the point of attack. I wish he trusted his feet more and played smaller players tighter instead of giving them heaps of space, which enables them to pull up more comfortably. Given that he runs into struggles as both a rim protector and perimeter defender, there are concerns that he could be a 4/5 tweener, limiting his potential outcomes.

Once again, there is a big risk in getting hung up on a prospect’s flaws, especially when the positives are important and rare. Smith may not be the most consistent defender, but the flashes are there. He’s got a blend of size, fluidity, and bounce that isn’t easy to come by. His ground coverage is impressive for a 4/5 hybrid. When he sits down in his chair and plays tight, he’s tough to beat. Plus, his improvements as a rim protector have been an exciting development. It will take some time and patience for Smith to become a solid, consistent defender. And given the flashes on the interior and perimeter, may end up being a versatile one in closing line-ups if it all comes together. Given everything else he brings to the table, and considering that he’s already shown improvement, I believe the juice will be worth the squeeze for whoever takes him on draft night.

Projection

Most 6’11” 19-year-olds can’t consistently shoot the ball for three-point range. Few are reliable decision-makers as passers on top of that. The combination of those skills and genuine NBA athleticism is an even rarer amalgamation. That’s what Tyler Smith is bringing to the table. If you want to get hung up on his handle or his lack of consistency on the defensive end, it is absolutely your right to do so. But zooming out, he’s bringing an uncommon set of traits to the table, backed by production in a professional league. It may not all click for Smith right away, but his gifts should ultimately be worth the patience in the end.

The high-end outcome for Tyler Smith could look something like Lauri Markkanen. Look, I know that sounds aggressive, but they’re eerily similar in terms of physical dimensions at age 19. Prospect Lauri had a gorgeous jumper uncommon among peers his size. Even better, he could move into his shot. While he wasn’t mesmerizing as a distributor, he could make decisions quickly and limit his mistakes. Similar to Smith, Markkanen faced questions about where exactly he would fit into things on the defensive end.

Oddly enough, Markkanen also struggled with ambidexterity and finishing as a driver. He made only 10 of his 26 twos generated off spot-ups during his lone season at Arizona. While his first step was typically better and longer, he still went choppy with it at times. The end result—more pull up twos than shots at the basket. His posture was upright, leading to him getting bumped off his spot. Then, he’d take off from too far away and settle for a worse angle at the cup. Markkanen also heavily favored one direction, driving left 60 times while only going right 13 times and straight three times. After watching his college tape on Synergy, I finally understood what Olivia Rodrigo felt like when she wrote, “Deja Vu.” If Markkanen was able to overcome these hurdles, why not Smith?

If that’s too rich for your blood, I get it. But sleeping on potential high-end outcomes for productive prospects can lead to things like Desmond Bane going 30th. Still, the more “boring” outcomes for Smith are still interesting. There’s a “slimmer Bobby Portis” path, and he was the sixth man for a title team. I could imagine Smith matching Santi Aldama’s freshman numbers at Loyola Maryland. A dude like Trey Lyles has had a long career on the back of size and shooting, and Smith will enter the league with more size and a better shot.

The bottom line is that tall guys who can really stroke it and take care of the ball tend to stick, especially when the athletic tools are above board. Given that, there is safety in Tyler Smith. But don’t sleep on the upside. One year ago, he was a theoretical shooter, and now he’s a real one. He was still figuring out how to move the ball, and now he’s a guy that I trust. He’s taken strides defensively throughout this season. We’re looking at a 6’11”, 225-pound 19-year-old who is shooting 39.0% from the NBA three-point line, makes good decisions, and has demonstrated a clear track record of improvement. If you want to see him more as a guy who goes in the 20s, go for it. But Tyler Smith is a lottery pick in my book.

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Mid-Major Game of the Week

This week’s Mid-Major Game of the Week saw the Saint Mary’s Gaels beat the San Francisco Dons 70-66.

This game likely won the MMGOTW poll due to the interest around San Francisco’s Jonathan Mogbo, so let’s start with him. The 6’8” senior exploded onto the map this season as one of college basketball’s premier stat sheet stuffers. His blend of athleticism and savvy earned him a nod in my “Five Unique Prospects with a Shot at the NBA” article a month and a half ago. Since then, he hasn’t taken his foot off the gas and his buzz has only continued to grow.

Mogbo’s numbers didn’t jump off the page in this one due to foul trouble, but he still checked a lot of boxes. He finished the night with six points, six rebounds, five assists, and two steals. On defense, he still made his presence felt around the basket despite the lack of blocks on the stat sheet. Guards were leery of driving on him and his rim rotations forced some hideous misses at the cup. One of his steals came on an uncanny swim move to nab an entry pass.

Offensively, it was a mixed bag. He’s always a selfless passer who sees the floor well while facing up. That paid dividends here, as all five of his assists set up three-point shots. He’s a big-time elevator who doesn’t need to load up to finish above the rim. Still, he only posted six points on seven shots. Right now, he struggles if he’s shooting outside of the restricted area. When Saint Mary’s sagged on his on-ball actions at the top of the key, he didn’t have a way to punish them. He took three jumpers in this one, and one of them fell, but they largely didn’t look comfortable. Without that scoring punch in the mid-range and beyond, he’s a much easier cover.

While Mogbo was ultimately a net positive for the Dons, this game raised questions about his next level role. I’m concerned about how effective he can be offensively without expanding his range. Defensively, he struggled mightily trying to contain the Gael’s larger opponents. He fouled out due to those size/strength limitations around the basket. While he rebounds like a five man, he has a hard time staying vertical and stifling traditional centers in the paint. If he’s going to be a five on offense and a four on defense, he becomes a much more fit-dependent prospect. I wouldn’t fault anyone for being high on a late bloomer with good tools and good feel, but games like this are why I’ve been a bit more hesitant to view him as a Top 60 guy.

6’8” sophomore Mike Sharavjamts had a quiet night, posting seven points, two rebounds, and one assist. Like Mogbo, Sharavjamts too fouled out. He got overly handsy and aggressive around the basket a few times. He’s still behind the curve from a physicality perspective, struggling to stay vertical inside and to fight around screens. Still, there are moments where his length goes a long way on defense and on the glass. Offensively, he showed some rhythm and rock with the ball. He makes good passing reads and the high release on his jumper is picturesque. If he can continue to get stronger, he’ll remain an interesting long-term proposition.

Marcus Williams led the team in scoring with 26 points on 11-20 shooting. The 6’2” senior has some real shot-making chops. He has NBA range on his shot and is more than comfortable off movement. However, he threw several erratic passes, ending the night with three turnovers and only two assists.

On the Saint Mary’s side, it was the Mitchell Saxen show. The 6’10” senior had a monster double-double, ending the night with 20 points and 13 boards. He also had a clutch block on in the final minute, covering for a teammate who got caught on screens by closing out to the corner to swat a three. Had that shot gone in, it would’ve cut the lead to three. He’s strong and physical in every sense. He’ll fight to his spot on the block before finishing with touch. He’ll set nasty picks and use “Gortat screens” to free up opponents. There’s some finesse in there too, as he can make some nice passing deliveries. Saxen isn’t the quickest or bounciest, which will limit NBA interest. But he’s going to be able to make a good amount of money playing professional basketball somewhere.

Alex Ducas had a big one, too. The 6’6” graduate has earned a reputation as a talented long-range marksman, but he showed he’s more than that against the Dons. He finished with 18 points, six rebounds, an assist, and a block. When chased off the line, he used his handle, footwork, and physicality to either get a clean look or get to the charity stripe. He also made a slick over-the-head interior dish to Saxen to set up an and-one finish. While he’s a bit heavy-footed on defense, he is strong and physical. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets a Summer League look given his size and career 39.8% mark for three-point land.

Sophomore Aidan Mahaney has some fans. The 6’3” guard posted 12 points, four boards, and two assists in a solid outing. 6’4” junior Augustas Marciulionis has a cold shooting night, going 2-8 from the field. Still, he was constantly getting into the paint and getting the offense churning. He posted a team-high four assists to one turnover. If he can continue to improve as a jump shooter, I could see him getting on radars next year. Sadly, 6’8” sophomore Joshua Jefferson missed this game, and will miss the rest of the season, due to a knee injury. Despite that, he should be on radars going forward. He’s a good defender and smart decision-maker with NBA upside if he develops his jump shot.

Next week’s Mid-Major Game of the Week will be Southern Illinois vs. Bradley! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter/X to vote in future MMGOTW polls!

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Quick Hits

-Jared McCain is a hot name, so let’s lead off with him. Duke’s 6’3” freshman guard has been red hot, averaging 16.3 PPG on 47.4/40.0/86.2 splits over his last 11 games. As the schedule has gotten tougher, McCain has risen to the occasion. He’s an electric scorer with logo range and a fast pull-up. While his long ball gets social media clicks, he’s also a tremendous finisher for a guard, converting 62.7% of his halfcourt rim attempts this year, per Synergy. His combination of toughness and poise go a long way inside. He’s a high-motor hustler on the glass, chipping in with 5.4 RPG in ACC play. Still, I don’t want to over-correct on McCain. His zero blocks and one dunk on the year are concerning, as is his low assist rate. While McCain isn’t a selfish gunner and does a good job of leveraging his scoring gravity on occasion, I’d like to see his passing become a more consistent weapon down the stretch. For more on McCain, read this excellent column from our own Tyler Metcalf.

-French prospect Tidjane Salaun remains a tough evaluation for me. He’s gone cold from three since the calendar turned to 2024, hitting only 30.6% of his triples during this stretch. He’s a “stop and survey” player who can bring the offense to a halt and make frustrating passing decisions. Despite positive athletic tools, he struggles mightily to stay in front on defense. Still, it’s hard to be too low on him. At 18 years old, he can create for himself on an island the way few 6’9” players can. He’s got speed and wiggle with the ball. While his percentage from deep may be regressing, the shot difficulty certainly isn’t, as he’s often taking deep movement threes. He can fly for lobs above the rim. I’ve also been more impressed by his off-ball defensive consistency. Salaun will be a developmental project, but a worthwhile first round gamble, particularly for teams with multiple picks or those who can afford to be patient.

-USC Freshman Isaiah Collier has become a more reliable decision-maker as this season has progressed. After averaging 4.1 APG to 4.4 TOV over his first ten games, those numbers went to 4.6 APG and 2.1 TOV in his next ten outings. There are still drawbacks—he’s a poor three-point and free-throw shooter who rarely makes a mark on the glass despite a powerful frame. But Collier becoming a trustworthy decision-maker makes his obscene ability to pressure the rim even more dangerous.

-It’s been great to see Jamal Shead getting more love. Houston’s 6’1” senior guard has always been a tremendous decision-maker, but his jumper is finally rounding into form, as he’s up to a career-high 34.3% from deep. The real sell is the defense, though. His 4.6 STL% and 2.5 BLK% are both outrageous figures for a guard. He’s aggressive and covers ground like a much larger player. He springs to contest better than almost anyone, which helps him to block shots on the perimeter, but also enables him to close out more meaningfully on bigger shooters than most his size. His hand speed is out of this world, enabling him to rack up tips, deflections, and steals on the ball. Per Synergy, opponents have a TO% of 32.9 on possessions where he guards a pick-and-roll ball handler. I get that he’s undersized, but he’s such a potent defensive player that if the offense can just be good enough, he may be able to carve out a long NBA career.

-A multiyear sleeper to watch—Monmouth’s Jaret Valencia. Though wiry, the 6’8” redshirt freshman can jump out of the gym. It’s rare to find players with his athletic tools outside of the high-major level, and he knows how to use them. He’s a shifty downhill driver and above-the-rim finisher. While he’s not the most willing three-point shooter (1.3 3PA per game) and a bad free throw shooter (52.9%), the shot looks well mechanically when he commits to holding his follow-through. He’s also up to 60% from the stripe in 2024, for whatever that’s worth. Defensively, he does a great job of using his speed and length to get into passing lanes. He’s a tremendous weakside rim protector with good instincts and he absolutely soars off one foot to block shots. He needs the shot to be a consistent weapon to generate serious consideration, but he has NBA physical gifts and he’s a stellar defensive playmaker (1.8 STL%, 7.9 BLK%).