Thomas Sorber's Important Production | The Prospect Overview
Georgetown freshman Thomas Sorber's important production has put him onto draft radars. Maxwell dives deep into the data, as well as Sorber's film. PLUS: Quick Hits across college basketball!
As a scout, there are two questions I try to keep front of mind.
What has worked historically and in recent years for players at a given position?
How does this player’s skill set fit into the overall direction of the league?
These two questions are why I have interest in Georgetown big man Thomas Sorber. The 6’10”, 255-pound freshman has had a productive start to his inaugural college season. It’s not just that he’s been productive that caught my eye, but rather, the way he’s gone about producing. Let’s dig into it!
Passing Bigs Are In
Let’s go back to question number one—What has worked historically, and in recent years, for players at a given position? We can get answers from this awesome tweet, courtesy of @CriggsNBA (who you should be following). BPM is historically a great indicator of NBA success. But for big men, CriggsNBA’s research notes that playmaking is a much stronger predictor of future success than one might expect. In my pre-season column about Derik Queen, I noted that only seven of the 44 who started 20+ NBA games last season had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. Our own Nathan Grubel noted that this NBA season, only 5 teams currently have an assist-to-turnover ratio under 1.5. Sure, heliocentrism might be hot, but teams don’t want their tertiary contributors screwing things up when they get the ball. In the modern game, everyone has to be capable of making good decisions with the ball. This applies to the draft, too.
Let’s keep going down this path. Take a look at the college bigs (loosely defined as guy who will play the 4/5 most frequently, or were projected to do so coming out) who were drafted ten years ago as opposed to the bigs drafted in 2024. We’re going to focus in on a few categories—usage rate, assist percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio.
Big men drafted in 2014:
Big men drafted in 2024:
Two key takeaways here:
1. Teams loved using second round picks on back-to-the-basket power forward who offered little in the way of versatility. It was their favorite thing. I wish I could appear to them in a dream, like The Ghost of (Rakeem) Christmas Past, and warn them how much the game was about to change.
2. Modern big men prospects carry higher usage rates, assist percentages, and assist-to-turnover ratios than those in the past. The game hasn’t just changed at the NBA level, but at all levels. Spacing has expanded the floor. Now, big men are out on the perimeter more often. There, they must be able to read the floor and make decisions. This is less of a, “hopefully he grows into it” predicament. It’s nearly a prerequisite at this point. Even a guy like Yves Missi, who graded out toward the bottom of his 2024 peers in these categories, showed comfortability operating dribble handoffs at Baylor. As I noted in a column back in January, Missi was limited to a smaller role in Baylor’s guard-heavy scheme but actually had solid priors as a playmaker at the prep level. Teams want their bigger players to come into the league with ball skills and the ability to think the game at a higher level.
Now, let’s circle back to the second question at the top of this column—How does this player’s skill set fit into the overall direction of the league? The overall offensive direction of the league is five-out and/or 4.5-out spacing, as often as possible. The league’s three-point rate is up. As a result, I don’t see the passing big man trend going away any time soon. Teams are leaning into it more than ever. They want big men on the perimeter acting as playmaking hubs and/or shooter (ideally both) so as to provide optimal spacing. It pulls the opposing big man out of the paint, making downhill drives a much easier proposition. The best time to shoot a three is after an offensive rebound. You know who tend to get the most offensive rebounds for their teams? Big men. Do you know what they have to do to get the ball to a shooter? Pass. Unless a rule change dramatically shifts where teams can score most efficiently, things should rightfully continue to trend in this direction. The playmaking big man is a trend that must be acknowledged in importance immediately and continuously accounted for going forward.
So, let’s get back to Thomas Sorber. He’s checking the BPM boxes (12.4 BPM, 7.7 OBPM, 4.7 DBPM). But again, it’s how he’s producing that makes him so interesting. He’s a playmaking big man! As it stands currently, Sorber has a 23.8 USG%, 19.8 AST%, and 1.75 ATO. That’s intriguing for a dude who doesn’t turn 19 until Christmas Day.
Sorber’s passing gets by from an eye test standpoint, too. He’s not just getting lucky with guys hitting shots. He reads the game quickly and finds open teammates in a timely manner. He has made sharp passes after receiving the ball on pick-and-pop setups. The placement on high-low passes is sublime. Sorber can whip warp-speed passes from the top of the key to baseline cutters. He’ll do little things like making sure he gets contact on a screen after handoffs, maximizing openings for his teammates. He can find shooters after grabbing an offensive board. Whatever type of NBA set passing functionality you’re looking for, Sorber has it in his arsenal. And crucially, he’s delivering these dimes while minimizing his mistakes. It’s not just that he’s capable, but that he is also demonstrating consistent execution.
Scoring
When it comes to the scalability of a player’s passing, it’s important to weigh their playmaking skill set against that player’s ability to put the ball in the basket. If a prospect isn’t a threat to score, it inhibits their gravity, diminishing their ability to punish opposing defenses. Another thing that makes Sorber more intriguing that his fellow high feel passing peers is his scoring. He’s both prolific and efficient. As it stands, Sorber is averaging 32.6 points per 100 possessions on 66.0 TS%, both of which grade out very well relative to NBA big men who have stuck in recent years.
Right now, Sorber does most of his scoring work on the block, where he wins with polish and power. When he gets mismatches, he’ll bully smaller opponents to secure supreme positioning before finishing with ease. NBA teams don’t go to the post super often, but it’s nice that he has that in his bag. As a roller and dunker spot patroller, he knows how to tuck himself behind the back line of defenses to maximize his openings. He can fight to win contested boards and convert put-backs. To add to his five-out upside, Sorber is also a willing shooter. While he’s only 33.3% from beyond the arc, he’s taken over one per game, and he’s converting 78.7% of his free throws. Those are great indicators for a big man his age. Sorber will also take a deeper two when given space, further pointing to his comfortability with his jumper. He can also face up and put the ball on the deck a little bit. One last overarching thing to take into account is that Sorber loves contact. He never hesitates to go into opponents, and that allows him to get to the line consistently (5.2 FTA/game, .566 FTR). Given his efficiency at the charity stripe, that’s a great trait to have. Sorber’s well-roundedness as a scorer makes him all the more intriguing.
Thievery
Folks, it gets even better! Sorber isn’t one of these extremely tilted types who have nothing to offer on the other end of the floor. A lot of the feel carries over here. Sorber is an active pointer and communicator on the tape. His sheer size helps him around the basket. He stays vertical really well thanks to his power, enabling him to swallow up opponents before swatting their shots (6.9 BLK%). What I really want to focus on, though, is one more area where Sorber is an outlier. The man is a thief.
Sorber has a steal rate of 3.3%, which is extraordinarily uncommon among big men. Paul Reed was one of the more prolific ball hawk big man prospects in recent memory, and that’s where his steal rate finished up during his pre-draft season. Jaylin Williams, Day’Ron Sharpe, Onyeka Okongwu, and Brandon Clarke were all high-end thieves for their position, and they all settled in at 2.2%. Sorber has excellent timing to collect steals in gaps. When he’s out on the perimeter, he gets pesky with hands, enabling him to poke the ball loose at the point of attack. Additionally, his willingness to absolutely smother smaller opponents often leads to them coughing the ball up. Opposing players can’t shake or fight threw him, and they end up getting loose with the rock when they try. We’ll see how sustainable his current output is as the year progresses, but it would be surprising if he doesn’t end the year with a really strong steal rate if nothing else. His timing, physicality, and hand speed should allow him to produce at the next level on this front.
Exercising Caution
There are a few reasons I don’t want to get too wild with my ranking of Sorber at this stage. The first is the level of competition he’s faced. Per BartTorvik, they’ve only played one Quad-I game, which was against West Virginia. Otherwise, they’ve played one Quad-III game, and seven Quad-IV games. While it’s been great to see Sorber dominate, and dominance does typically scale up well, he’s been dominating the bottom of the Division-I barrel. The Quad-III game was a blowout loss at home against Notre Dame, and the Quad-I game was a loss to West Virginia where he struggled with foul trouble. In those two games, he was 7-19 from the field with 25 total points while registering only eight total rebounds and one block. Conversely, he registered seven assists to only only three turnovers in those games. And to his credit, Sorber did have 12 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, four steals, and two blocks in a secret scrimmage against Maryland (though he also had six fouls). Given that production against a team with quality bigs, it would be extremely unfair to simply write him off as a bum slayer. But how well he continues to produce against better competition as the season progresses should give us a better idea as to how excited we should be.
Sorber isn’t the best mover on defense. He’s not quick off the floor, he’s a little heavy when he has to change directions at times, and he can be slower to cover ground. He’s not a snappy recovery guy. He can also be slow getting up and down the floor at times. While he has bright spots guarding down, in some instances, he’ll be too handsy, upright, and narrow. He’ll need to improve his overall athleticism in order to hold down the fort consistently in the NBA. On offense, I’ll be monitoring how his scoring efficiency holds up throughout the year. Because Sorber doesn’t fly off the floor, he’s not much of a lob target and can finish below the rim in traffic. How well his finishing holds up against better competition will be interesting to see. Lastly, given his strength, I’d also like to see him get contact on screens more consistently.
Conclusion
It’s important to exercise caution. I’ve learned the hard way that anchoring myself to impressive performances early in the season, and subsequently hand-waving struggles that come later in the year, can lead to disappointing outcomes. Given Georgetown’s early season schedule, it’s worth keeping in mind that the majority of Sorber’s most meaningful data points are still yet to come.
Still, what we’ve seen from Thomas Sorber has been exciting. I’m not comfortable getting declarative about many players this early in the process. But I am comfortable saying that if Sorber can continue to do what he’s done against better competition, he should be a highly sought-after prospect come June. His output is representative of what has worked historically for big men, but also, the direction the league is trending in the future. Thomas Sorber’s important production has made him one of the most pleasant surprises of the draft cycle, and I can’t wait to see where he goes from here.
Quick Hits
-It’s warmed my heart to see Nique Clifford pick up where he left off. The 6’5” Colorado State wing has seen his usage increase (20.8% to 25.3%), but he’s still as efficient as ever as a downhill driver. He’s converted an absurd 61.8% of his twos this season. Even better, he’s shown an increased willingness to launch from deep, sitting at 38.1% from distance on a career-high 7.5 threes per 100 possessions. Between his scoring efficiency, selfless playstyle, and defensive playmaking, I continue to view Clifford as a firm first round prospect.
-I devoted some film time to Joseph “JoJo” Tugler this past week, as his name has been buzzing lately. I know I’m supposed to be impartial, Tugler is a guy I’ll always be rooting for to an extent because he’s so unorthodox and fun to watch. He’s 6’7”, but exceptionally strong at 230 pounds, and exceptionally long with a 7’6” wingspan. Tugler swats everything around the basket and he’s sitting at an obscene 14.8 BLK% this season. But it’s not just that he’s a rim deterrent. He’s an everything deterrent. He’s constantly poking the ball loose on the perimeter. He’s nimble enough to guard down the lineup. He covers ground way better than his frame would indicate. To be blunt, it’s a pain in the ass trying to run offense when Tugler is on the other side of the floor. Still, I have pretty serious concerns about his offense. He offers little value as a scorer (17.5 points per 100 possessions), I don’t love his hands, and he can get jittery when he has to make plays with the ball. That said, the “playability threshold” on that end will likely be low given his defensive prowess. My gut says that he’s best continuing to develop in college, but I can imagine why an NBA front office would be eager to get him now before they would have to draft him higher down the road.
-Hey, can we talk about how Brooks Barnhizer is really good at basketball? The 6’6” Northwestern senior is powerful and intelligent. Defensively, that enables him to guard multiple positions and make plays. He’s coming off a Big Ten All-Defensive Team nod, and he’s picked up where he left off. But it’s Barnhizer’s offensive leap that makes him worth discussing as a draftable prospect. His usage rate has skyrocketed (22.9% to 29.6%) and he’s acclimated extremely well. Barnhizer has long been a crafty playmaker who can manipulate ball screens and operate with a fluid process. Now, he’s doing that full-time as a lead initiator, slinging 3.3 APG to only 2.3 TOV. His herky-jerky, high-feel style always reminded me a little bit of Jaime Jaquez. Best of all, Barnhizer’s three-ball is looking great. His percentage is even at 34.8% from deep, but his volume is up to 6.4 threes per 100 possessions and the degree of difficulty is high. Barnhizer’s size, feel, and well-rounded production should have him climbing draft boards sooner rather than later.
-Look, you all know I am Mr. Skeptical of Small Guards. But Missouri’s Anthony Robinson II caught my eye as an interesting long-term proposition. The 6’2” guard is a walking paint touch. He’s got a great stop-start ability and he manipulates ball screens well. Robinson is also making an absurd 62.2% of his twos. He does an outstanding job of using a hostage dribble, but he gets all the way to the rim with it more than most due to his funky movement patterns. He’s also a sharp, low-mistake passer (4.3 APG to 1.4 TOV) and foul drawing magnet (1.065 FTr, a number so high that its friends are assuring it that everything will be okay and there’s no reason to freak out). Small guards generally have to produce on defense, and Robinson is doing that, too. He’s got a 4.1 STL%, 1.3 BLK%, and 4.6 DBPM. The big question is his shot, as he doesn’t take many threes (2.8 per 100 possessions) and the percentage is blah (33.3%). But the dude can play, and he checks a lot of important boxes for a player his size.
-Louisiana Tech’s Daniel Batcho has put up some interesting numbers this year. The 6’11” senior has an 11.8 BLK%, and he’s scoring 19.3 PPG on 76.7 TS%. That’s awesome. Batcho’s shot blocking stems from his timing and one footed leaping ability. He holds up pretty well laterally, too. Offensively, he can dunk it, finish with touch, and even hit the occasional jumper (he knocked down a pretty baseline J against Memphis). With Batcho, my two main concerns are his passing (see the main portion of this article) and physicality. His career 6.1 AST% is indicative of a “locked into scoring” approach inside, though to be fair, he doesn’t get to initiate much. He also gets overpowered too often, which is most evident in his poor rebounding numbers (9.4 ORB%, 14.1 DRB%). Batcho’s scoring and shot blocking will keep a foot in the NBA door, but how his playmaking and strength hold up will determine where his stock settles come June.
-Jaron Pierre Jr. made some noise in the draft space after a viral tweet from Arman Jovic (aka PDTScouting, one of the biggest basketball sickos on earth). I dug into his tape after a few different people asked me about him in the wake of that post. Pierre definitely moves well. He can fly for above-the-rim finishes, rise up to hit tough ones in the mid-range, and sky on the glass. He’s also a potent scorer, posting 41.1 points per 100 possessions on 60.8 TS%. Plus, he makes some nice passes from time to time. Where I’m lower on Pierre is that he doesn’t offer much on defense. During his first six games against D-I competition, he posted a meager total of three stocks (steals + blocks). He gets lost rotationally, and he can be overreactive at the point of attack, leading to easy baskets inside. Offensively, his wiry frame doesn’t hold up to contact well inside, he can overdribble, and his handle tends to be quite high. If he can sustain his high percentage and volume from deep (41.2% on 10.9 attempts per 100 possessions), he should earn the chance to slug it out at the Portsmouth Invitational. But if there’s regression on that front, he’ll need to show more defensively.
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