Tre Johnson: Shooting Up Draft Boards
Stephen dives in on Texas Longhorns star guard Tre Johnson, and unpacks how the 2025 NBA Draft prospect might translate from college to the NBA.
Shooting Up Draft Boards
The NBA Draft is always full of twists and turns—players that are selected too high or too low, based on consensus projection. Of course, usually, there are the blue chip prospects that are highly desirable. There are players that turn losers into winners very quickly. Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson, Cade Cunningham—players who are all but guaranteed to become franchise cornerstones.
I wrote about Cooper Flagg last week, the presumed #1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, as such a player. He has continued to dominate and solidify himself as a potential member of that group.
What makes the draft fun, however, is the unknown victory. It is the player who outperforms their draft stock that makes this process so much fun. Such players allow front offices to say “We were shocked that he was still there” once their story begins to become written.
Jalen Williams taken by Oklahoma City with the 12th pick, Jalen Johnson went to Atlanta at 20, Tyrese Haliburton fell to Sacramento and was taken 12th overall, Tyler Herro went 13th to Miami, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went 11th and Jalen Brunson falling all the way to the 33rd pick to the Mavericks in the 2018 NBA Draft: there are numerous examples of players who were not the Belle of the ball within their respective drafts.
Shai and Brunson were in the shadows of Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Trae Young. Herro was a support cast member in a class featuring Zion, Ja Morant, and RJ Barrett. Hali had a goofy shooting form in the class of Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman, and LaMelo Ball. Jalen Johnson had an up-and-down college season while Cade, Jalen Green, and Evan Mobley were duking it out within the Top 3 in the 2021 class. J-Dub was a sleeper swing who has worked out tremendously behind the scenes of a class that was headlined by Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith Jr.
While Flagg is headlining the current class, there is a glut of prospects that are vying for the 2nd through 4th picks among consensus. The Rutgers duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey have been within that mix. The freshmen guard prospects of V.J. Edgecombe and Kasparas Jakucionis are among the popular names looking to round out the Top 5 among most reputable draft outlets. Egor Demin, Derik Queen, Asa Newell: several other prospects are clawing their way up draft boards.
All of those names are very fun to watch and make a lot of sense as to why many are high on their respective futures. Their size and athleticism make them hard to ignore. However, there is a prospect in this class who isn’t within the chiseled, 6’7” frame that is worth considering as a top prospect within this class. Replace nuclear athleticism with a pure shooting motion. Replace a crazy-rangy frame with a smooth game. Keep the same level of potential as the top prospect in the class. Let sit for two minutes.
You now have Tre Johnson.
**Stats and metrics are prior to Texas’s game against Arkansas on February 5th**
Offense
This is the name of the game for Tre’s projection into the NBA. He averages 1.039 in points per possession in total offense, which grades out as “Very Good” per Synergy Sport’s grading system. Johnson can score in a variety of ways, and he has shown some versatility in the role that he can play for a team. He’s a high-volume scorer, leading a senior-laden Texas basketball program in scoring by nearly 100 points. He’s doing this with shooting splits of 45/38/89.
Perimeter Scoring
Left Open
Tre Johnson (#20 in burnt orange) is one of the premier scorers in this draft class, and that scoring is highlighted by his dynamic shooting ability. It is this particular skill that has evaluators (including me) high on him. Of course, it’s not just his shooting, but we don’t have to miss the forest through the trees by not acknowledging this first.
We’ll start by stating something that may be a bit on the nose here: You cannot leave Tre open. Johnson is only left open on about 38% of his jumpers, and he hits on about 38% of such shots. That “only” grades out as average, but his shot-making in other areas suggests that he will be a reliable threat from distance and will absolutely punish teams that sag off of him. Observe the clip above.
The pick-and-roll action at the top of the key is clearly the focus of this play. As the ball handler has to pick up his dribble, he kicks the ball back to the top of the key. The defense is left scrambling to recover, which leaves our guy all alone in the left corner. Tre has all day to get into his shooting motion.
Transition Threat
Not only can Tre be a problem in the halfcourt, but he also has quick-strike ability. We have an opportunity to see that in this clip against Tennessee.
There’s not a lot to break down here. Once Texas gets the ball, they look to press the break. Johnson runs along the ball handler and makes himself available off the catch. I highly recommend pausing as Tre rises up. Look at how far back he is when he lets it fly. There is zero hesitation from our guy before he lets it go. This sort of range gives an offense a dimension that opens the floor for everyone else on the court.
Tre is an instant threat once he crosses halfcourt on the break. In transition, he averages 48.5% on his three-pointers. That’s almost 12% better than he shoots in the halfcourt.
Movement Shooting
Johnson is a credible shooting threat, regardless of his team’s pace. What makes his shooting ability appear to be such a sure thing is his versatility. In this game against Texas A&M, we have some representation of how an NBA team could create looks for him to get his shot off of movement.
Jayson Kent (#25 in white) will start out with the ball and look to get into a quick but effective action with our guy. Kent dribbles from the left wing to the top of the key and passes to Johnson, who is moving to the left wing. This action allows Kent to screen Tre’s man while his defender’s momentum is going away from Tre.
Kent sets an effective screen, creating the room for Johnson to rise up and drill the deep ball. Looks like this make it easy to envision Tre having success at the next level.
Iso Shot Making
Johnson can also cook on his own from distance. If he has a matchup that favors him—or if Texas needs a shot—his team can trust him to get a shot for himself.
In this clip against Oklahoma, we see our guy get the ball on the left wing with 17 seconds to go. Tre sizes him man up and gets into his dribble combination. His defender, Sam Godwin (#10 in white), uses his left hand to try and fluster Johnson’s dribble. This reach increases the likelihood that Johnson can beat Godwin if he dribbles to the defender’s right side.
Once Tre sees that his man’s right foot is traveling backward, he gets into a side dribble to his left. This move gives Johnson the room to get the shot off. Tre knocks down the sidestep three and lets his man know it.
Tre hits on about 35% of his dribble jumper three-pointers. He ranks within the 71st Percentile on dribble jumpers and in the 63rd Percentile in isolation.
Tough Shot Making
Sometimes, there is a little bit of unquantifiable “special” that a player has that helps them to stand out. That bit of special skill and talent may not be as in-your-face as the incredible defensive awareness of a Cooper Flagg or the ridiculous shot-making of an Ace Baily (or Tre would be considered in their tier), but are there flashes? Can you see something there that could flourish if given the right ecosystem?
Here is a flash of special against LSU. Tramon Mark (#12 in burnt orange) gets the ball within the right wing and drives to the free-throw line. You can see the design of the play set up to give Johnson an open jumper along the left side of the court. Tre runs off the flair screen to perfection, but Mark throws a bad pass. This may seem small, but Johnson is able to do two things here:
He keeps the possession alive
He actually finishes the play
A lot of times, a player will save a play like this but they will survey off of the recovery; they aren’t sure they can get the shot off—especially with 14 seconds left.
Tre actually looks toward the basket as he brings the ball in way off of his right side and into a dribble. This dribble gives Tre the stability to get a clean shot off while the scrambling defense goes to recover. The supreme confidence in self enables Johnson to get shots like these off on an as-needed basis.
Second Level Shot Making
Setting Up the Middy
Remember that clip I showed for the Iso Shot Making? Well, having successful counters off of dribble moves like the one Tre put on during that clip allows plays like this one.
Watch as Johnson looks to break down his defender here. When our guy hits the hard cross to his left, it appears as if he might go into a sidestep dribble for a three. This would be a reasonable assumption, as his defender is scrambling and shifts a lot of his weight to his back foot. This is a position that Tre can take advantage of, as he routinely puts his matchups in unfavorable positions.
Johnson follows his hard cross to the left with a brief hesitation to bait the defender into a rapid recovery. He then hard-crosses right and then steps back into a fadeaway jumper—which he hits.
Decisive Shot Taking
When our guy is providing optimal floor spacing, he can really leverage his skill in other ways to make defenses pay. Tre is set up on the weakside wing as Arthur Kaluma (#6 in white) drives to the rim. Missouri’s defense all draw closer to Kaluma as he continues his pursuit to the paint. Johnson does a slight shuffle to his left to optimize a passing angle. Kaluma kicks it out to him at the top of the key.
Johnson does a fake dribble to the right to force his defender to continue their momentum in that direction. Tre hard dribbles to his left once his man is to his right. Tre’s straight-line burst allows him to go past the first line of defense. Keeping his head up, Johnson sees the two defenders in the paint as he drives to the elbow.
Tre pulls up from the left elbow as his initial defender is sprinting to halt the drive. I recommend pausing the clip once Tre is rising up for the jumper. He creates a ton of space to allow a clean shot. The ball is released high and Johnson knows the bucket is good. Again, such confidence in his shot-making.
Third Level Scoring
Post Polish
Calling back to that “special” quality that certain players display flashes of, this is the type of shot that such players can consistently rely on getting. We see Tre with his back to the basket in the mid-post here against NC State.
Johnson goes to face up while probing with his right foot. He surveys for an opening to exploit, then goes to his left to force his man to slide back. As the deny defender slinks in, Johnson goes into a spin dribble to his right. This keeps extra defenders away, while forcing his man to shift his weight and recover. There is no help along the baseline or in the immediate vicinity, so Tre is able to complete the spin and rise for a jumper. Tre’s length and hangtime enable our guy to hit a shot, falling away from the contest. This is a special shot.
Cutting
When looking for areas to utilize Johnson more, the foremost area for me would be cutting. Tre has the length (listed at 6’6”) to be deadly here, especially should his frame continue to fill out. Take a look at his basketball IQ on this play.
Tennessee is looking to defend our guy from coming off of a down screen along the right corner. Everything about how Texas is setting this play up suggests that Tre is going to come off of the screen and either shoot, drive, or pass.
Jahmai Mashack (#15 in orange) is one of the premier perimeter defenders in all of college hoops, and he is assigned to our guy on this play. Both Mashack and his teammate look as if they think Johnson is coming off of the screen. There is no help inside the lane, and Tre sees that. He head-fakes to the screen and breaks off the contact between Mashack and himself. After a sharp cut to the basket, Johnson makes himself wide open. He gets the ball and throws down the dunk.
Johnson has only been credited with seven cutting plays to this point, but he is scoring on 71.4% of those possessions.
Getting To The Cup
Probably next on the list of rounding out Johnson’s shot diet would be more emphasis on getting to the paint to finish. Part of this may be team construct, as Texas’s center, Kadin Shedrick, is posted up on 71% of his possessions. Nonetheless, Tre only spends 5% of his time at the rim—with explains the free throw rate of 23.5.
He does convert quite a bit once he gets to the paint, as highlighted by this clip.
Tre gets the ball on the right wing and is immediately confronted by an aggressive defender. Johnson spins away from this initial man and finds his way into the next level of defense. Our guy splits between two defenders, picks up his dribble, and makes the tough layup—going right through the chest of the big man.
Johnson has some strength—he’s listed at 190 pounds—but once he starts getting NBA-level strength and conditioning, we should see more looks like this.
Playmaking
On top of leading his Longhorn team in scoring, Tre is also second on his team in assists. His natural skill is to be a scoring threat, but there are certainly some instinctive passing chops within the freshman wing as well.
Second Side Action
The likelihood that Johnson comes into the NBA as a lead facilitator isn’t the highest, so there may be a higher probability that his assists come as a second-side creator. This clip above shows how effective he can be when taking advantage of a defense in motion.
Tre comes off a double down screen on the right side to start this clip. Johnson gets the pass in motion, with his man trying to recover to challenge the drive. Our guy continues his drive, which forces the help to slide out in front of him. That leaves Shedrick (#5 in burnt orange) open to dive to the basket, since Kaluma continues to run baseline to the weak corner.
Tre drives into Shedrick’s man, dumps it to his teammate, and logs the assist as Shedrick throws down the dunk. Easy bucket.
High Pick and Roll
Here comes a play that is the proverbial bread-and-butter for any creator at any level of competition: the pick and roll.
Quietly, Tre has been one of the better creators operating the pick and roll. On 60 possessions, he averages 1.017 points per possession. This ranks in the 88th percentile and grades out as “Excellent” per Synergy. The clip above shows why this is the case.
Johnson brings the ball up on the right side of the floor and is met by his man upon crossing halfcourt. Shedrick looks to set up shop to Tre’s left. Our guy drives his man into the screen and covers a lot of ground to get to the top of the key. The defense has to commit to respecting Johnson’s range and efficiency. This causes Shedrick’s man to step up to Tre.
This commitment to Tre’s shot allows Shedrick to roll hard to the rim. He catches the slick bounce pass in stride and rises for the two-handed flush. This manipulation of the two-man game shows poise and intelligence from Tre, along with some underlying potential as a lead shot creator.
Don’t buy it? Let’s see some more.
Passing Under Pressure
I can’t tell you how many players that I have watched that will pick up their dribble when opposed with the slightest bit of pressure. Two defenders? Even fewer players can navigate that type of chaos in college. Like a mobile quarterback, a ball-handler who can keep their dribble alive in the midst of pressure can make a defensive scheme look rather silly.
Tre shows us that against one of the better defensive-minded coaches in this clip against Tennessee. We mentioned in an earlier clip that Jahmai Mashack is a great collegiate defender. We see him lined up across from our guy as he catches the ball on the right wing.
The Johnson-Shedrick two-man game is at play, with Kadin setting a screen to Tre’s left. Shedrick’s man, Felix Okpara (#34 in orange), blitzes our guy, while Mashack is attempting to fight through the screen. Tre is able to maneuver around Okpara but he is forced to take a longer path to get past the first line of defense.
As our guy is able to round past Okpara, he is met by another defender. On top of that, Mashack recovered from the screen and is in hot pursuit of Tre. By the time he reaches the top of the key, Johnson is now surrounded by three defenders.
Rather than look to pick up his dribble and pivot to look for an open teammate, Johnson drops a live-dribble dime to Shedrick. He finishes with a routine dunk.
Leveraging His Scoring
Like most prolific scorers, Johnson can leverage his shooting gravity to create easier looks for his teammates. We’ll see that in this clip against UConn.
This play starts off with Tre catching the ball on the right wing. There is no action run for our guy; Texas opts to let him cook in isolation. Tre is met by his defender, who closes out aggressively. Johnson goes for a slight pump fake, which his man falls for and gets up to contest.
Like a judo fighter, Tre uses the defender’s momentum against them and drives right past him. Now UConn has to recover to stop the drive. Two defenders rotate over to form a wall while Johnson is going into a scoring motion. Tre is able to see over the top of the help and sees Arthur Kaluma open in the dunker spot.
Our guy uses his great length (reported +5 wingspan) to wrap the pass around the defense and into the awaiting hands of Kaluma. Kaluma gathers the ball and rises for the thunderous dunk.
Dynamic Feel
Plays like this one underscore the underlying “special” skills that can be unearthed with more cultivation and empowerment.
Johnson is going to start off with the ball in this clip against Missouri. Our guy is tightly guarded by Tony Perkins (#12 in grey)—a 6’4”, 210-pound senior guard. Tre dribbles from the top of the key to the right wing.
Without using any fancy separation dribble, Johnson is able to go right through his man and apply pressure to the next line of defense. The help defense has to commit, as they know what we know: Tre is a three-level scorer.
Look at how Tre is able to manipulate the defense to create an optimal passing angle. Johnson is draped in defenders, but he leaps off of the floor to freeze all converging defenders. He floats past the help and drops a beautiful one-handed dump off pass to the cutting Kaluma, who finishes with ease.
This exemplifies the 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio we see Tre tout right now. His assist percentage is “only” at a 14.4 rate, but this closely mirrors other freshmen players of his archetype. In fact, his assist numbers top what Devin Booker (10.9), Zach LaVine (12.6), Bradley Beal (12.7), and Malik Monk (13.3) put up in their only year in college. He also boasts a lower turnover percentage than what they put up, per Bart Torvik.
Defense
This side of the ball is kind of interesting for Tre. The strength will be an issue here during his first year but there are some signs of hope that Johnson can become a contributor on this side of the ball. Per Synergy, Tre only allows 0.788 points per possession and an opponent field goal percentage of 36.3%. That grades out as “Very Good” per Synergy. But how does the film check against these numbers?
Rotational Upside
To be clear and upfront, Johnson doesn’t do this type of thing enough. However, it is nice to see examples of how good Tre can be when locked in.
Texas plays a switch-heavy defense on a nightly basis. Our guy starts off in help in the right corner. The ball handler brings the ball to the right wing for a handoff play, where the defenders switch assignments. The ball is handed off again toward the top of the key, allowing Tre to slide back to the right side in help. The ball comes back to the right wing but the handoff is denied.
The ball is then swung to the player in the corner, Alex Karaban (#11 in dark blue), and he is guarded by Tre. Karaban gets a screen to his right, which is set on Johnson. Our guy does a good job of fighting over the screen and recovering to Karaban on the drive.
Karaban dribbles into the help defender, and has Tre on his left; he’s doubled. Tre recognizes that the dribble is stopped and that the ball has two defenders. Someone has been left open. Karaban knows that he has an open teammate open in the corner and swings the rock to Hassan Diarra (#10 in dark blue).
Johnson closes out on his man well, taking his chop steps while having a hand raised and playing off of Diarra’s right side. Once Tre is in front of Diarra, he fronts him. This forces the ball handler to reassess his angle of attack. Diarra opts to drive right. Tre sticks with him and forces his man to rise up with under three seconds left to shoot. Diarra misses the tough pullup middy and Tre gets to go back to playing offense.
Sliding
Tamar Bates (#2 in grey) is one of the best scorers in the SEC, and that is who our guy is matched up with to start this play.
The first things I want to point out is something that Tre does far to often—and I’d like for this to stop. As the ball-handler, Perkins, drives from the right wing to the right elbow, Johnson slides over to swipe at the ball. This does cause Perkins to pick up his dribble, but now Johnson has to rapidly recover to his man, who is left open with a clear passing path.
Perkins does kick it to Tre’s man and he looks to decide how he wants to go at our guy. Bates drives right and Tre does a great job of maintaining his hands high to avoid a cheap foul, while also sliding his feet to stick with Tamar.
Johnson maintains his position and doesn’t get moved off of his spot. Bates has to stop and pick up his dribble due to being out of real estate. Johnson gets his hands vertical to challenge any pending shot attempt, which forces Bates to pivot away from the basket, and settle for a push shot. Missed. Despite over-committing for a swipe, Tre showed great footwork and positioning to force a difficult look.
Assistance Necessary
The prior clip illuminated an unfortunate recurrence that has cropped up a few times this season: Tre can be out of position on defense. There are reasons that can make sense: He’s young, the SEC is not a joke, etcetera, etcetera.
We see Florida establish deep position as soon as this clip is starter. Tre’s man is essentially two men, as Texas is fronting Florida’s big man, Thomas Haugh (#10 in blue). That leaves our guy responsible for Sam Alexis (#4 in blue) and Alijah Martin (#15 in blue).
The ball is kicked out to Alexis at the top of the key. Tre runs out to meet Alexis, but his teammate, Julian Larry (#1 in white), also scrambles out while reacting to the quick pass. It appears that Johnson is slightly confused here. Clearly, he saw that someone needed to check Alexis, so he steps out toward him. Once Larry recovers toward the perimeter, maybe Tre assumed Larry would check Alexis?
That wouldn’t make much sense in hindsight. Tre is much more suited, dimensionally, to defend Alexis, which would leave Larry to defend Martin. Alexis sees that no one is defending him, and drives in for a nice push shot finish.
Larry had to physically direct our guy to guard Alexis. Once the possession is over, you can clearly see that Tre was confused and frustrated during that play. This is where the concerns about the defensive lapses he can have come into play, leaving evaluators wanting more.
Defensive “Special”
Recall, if you will, the “special” abilities we discussed on the offensive side. On defense, Johnson has a special ability that has been effective throughout his freshman campaign.
Tre is defending Zhuric Phelps (#1 in maroon), a talented upperclassman guard. Phelps looks to use his speed to blow by Johnson off of the bounce. Our guy puts his chest on him and slides his feet, sliding with his man. Phelps looks to finish with a layup, but he is met by an outstretched arm—ready to send the shot in reverse. Johnson’s length and timing enable him to block the shot.
Tre is producing a block percentage of 1.3 on the season, which equates to about half of a block per game. This may seem modest, but there is something to Tre’s ability to contest shots with his good length. If he can do this now with his frame being what it is, it could be easy to get excited about improved strength and discipline.
Curtains
Tre Johnson is a flawed prospect. Most are. That doesn’t mean he cannot be an incredibly productive player in the NBA. Bradley Beal was touted as “the next Ray Allen” coming out of Florida. His flaws were apparent, but he was a consensus Top 5 prospect and was taken #3 in 2012. Devin Booker had fans, but his flaws were also apparent. Many had him as a back-half of the lottery talent. This was due to a lack of certainty on what else he could do beyond shooting. Malik Monk received criticism due to his size and a perceived deficit in maturity to his offense. Zach LaVine was an elite athlete in college, but didn’t leverage it to generate free throws. He was also knocked for a lack of physicality and poor shot selection.
Looking back, after what we know now, some of these concerns seem ridiculous. Of course Devin Booker would develop his handle and playmaking chops! Of course Malik Monk would round out his game! Of course Zach LaVine would refine his skills, fill out his frame, and take better shots!
Like many freshmen before him, Tre Johnson needs to get stronger. He needs to hone in his defensive discipline. I’d love for him to be more aggressive on the glass. However, he has dynamic scoring ability. He is a special shooter. Tre does a fantastic job of moving the ball as a secondary option. There is some potential for him to become more of an on-ball guy. There is something there with tools and potential defensively.
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Weird list of players who turn losers into winners. Zion???? Satire? Even KAT IS very far from that description.