Hey Max, good stuff like always, man. Just a piece of feedback. You do a good job articulating Coleman Hawkins' strengths and weaknesses. You just lost me at the end where you say that if he has a strong combine, he could maybe be a draftable guy (paraphrasing). IMO, he is a draftable guy now, and if he has a strong combine, he could move up into early 2nd round (or maybe even late 1st round).
You say how he's almost there in a few different areas and needs to get a little bulkier to play full-time at the 5. But you also point out the many things he does well, that make him an intriguing prospect. A 6'10" guy who can potentially guard 1-5 defensively, give you some weak side rim protection, plays with a toughness/edge to him, can be a really strong passer for a big, with flashes of draining 3's and handling the ball out on the perimeter.
Isn't that exactly the type of guy you take a swing on in the 2nd round?
As a general observation, it seems like you're much more risk averse when evaluating/ranking prospects. For example, you seem to be very high on Trey Alexander. He seems to be a very safe pick. High floor. Low bust potential. It seems like when you evaluate players, you really look deep to find flaws, and then you really drill into those flaws and point out how big they are. Which is fine. But with someone like Alexander (or someone like Bufkin), one might say they don't really have any flaws. Or they have very few flaws..or the flaws they do have are smaller.
But if I'm a team picking in the 2nd round, I look at Alexander and I say to myself, "where's the upside here?" Same thing with Bufkin if I'm picking in the lottery.
I'm not saying this risk averse draft philosophy is wrong. I'm simply offering a different viewpoint. Personally, I'm taking Coleman Hawkins over Trey Alexander 10 times out of 10 (depending on the team context, and how both guys do in workouts, interviews and stuff, of course). Just like I'm taking GG Jackson over Bufkin..
I feel like outside of the top 20 or 25 picks, I'd rather take an upside swing. That's just me. I feel like the odds are pretty good Coleman Hawkins can bulk up a little bit (haven't researched it, but I'm pretty sure most bigs over the past 10-20 yrs or so add at least 15 lbs or so after arriving in the NBA, especially ones who are 21 or younger on draft night. And I think the odds are pretty good that he can improve in some of the areas he's not as strong in, considering a good % of a player's development takes place after he is drafted.
First off, I appreciate the feedback! Thanks for reading!
I definitely understand the logic you are bringing to the table here. With Hawkins, I simply don't see the upside being realistically attainable in a timeline that would benefit me as the team drafting him in 2023. I'm lower on him in general and see him as someone who need to improve in A LOT of areas. While smaller, I would actually be more interested in a player like Toumani Camara in that same range. He has an NBA body, can plug-and-play a bit more easily, has a clear-cut defensive role, and only really needs to improve as a jump shooter to have a good, long career. If he's shooting, with his body and how he moves, that's someone who could be a playoff rotation guy. And with him, I'm focusing primarily on developing one skill. With Hawkins, I need the defensive consistency, decision-making, jump shot, and size to all get there. I also wonder about how beneficial the passing Hawkins brings to the table is when he will be a lower priority in an NBA offense-- is a team realistically going to be letting him operate as a distributor? Does he have gravity as a short roller/pick-and-pop option? I'm not so sure. Even Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who is older but came to the game late, may offer similar upside to Hawkins with less lapses while guarding down more consistently (even if the 5 is off the table for him entirely due to how wiry he is). I think Tomlin is a sneaky good decision maker relative to his size and experience, too.
Bufkin is actually someone I'm a tad lower on, especially with regard to where the consensus is going, and I've never had a lottery grade on him. I'd actually lean more toward upside there-- players like Sensabaugh, Coulibaly, Lewis. With Trey Alexander in the second, I simply see a guy who could be a long-term NBA player available on a cheap contract and offer some valuable, ready-made skills without taking much off the table.
The primary reason why I go more risk-averse in the second is that I feel many of the recent second round hits have been the more "boring," safe prospects in recent years. Gary Trent Jr., Jarred Vanderbilt, Shake Milton, Xavier Tillman, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, Jericho Sims, Andrew Nembhard...these guys weren't exactly thrilling. Their roles and fits were pretty straightforward, they'd shown how they could produce in those roles, and they did. That's good value. On the other hand, guys like Bol Bol tend to be the outliers. There just haven't been a ton of big swings-and-hits for home runs in the second in recent years. I'm not opposed to it as a practice, and there's times that it's worth striking out, but it just doesn't seem like a worthwhile gamble to me in many instances if you KNOW (to the extent that you can "know" anything in scouting) there's an NBA player on the board. Of course, there are plenty of "safe" prospects in the second who bust, too.
Again, I always appreciate the insights and feedback! I love to be challenged on my viewpoints and I'm always trying to grow as an evaluator. I'm never going to get better at anything if I don't consider the other ideas that exist. Always here for the discussion!
Hey Max, good stuff like always, man. Just a piece of feedback. You do a good job articulating Coleman Hawkins' strengths and weaknesses. You just lost me at the end where you say that if he has a strong combine, he could maybe be a draftable guy (paraphrasing). IMO, he is a draftable guy now, and if he has a strong combine, he could move up into early 2nd round (or maybe even late 1st round).
You say how he's almost there in a few different areas and needs to get a little bulkier to play full-time at the 5. But you also point out the many things he does well, that make him an intriguing prospect. A 6'10" guy who can potentially guard 1-5 defensively, give you some weak side rim protection, plays with a toughness/edge to him, can be a really strong passer for a big, with flashes of draining 3's and handling the ball out on the perimeter.
Isn't that exactly the type of guy you take a swing on in the 2nd round?
As a general observation, it seems like you're much more risk averse when evaluating/ranking prospects. For example, you seem to be very high on Trey Alexander. He seems to be a very safe pick. High floor. Low bust potential. It seems like when you evaluate players, you really look deep to find flaws, and then you really drill into those flaws and point out how big they are. Which is fine. But with someone like Alexander (or someone like Bufkin), one might say they don't really have any flaws. Or they have very few flaws..or the flaws they do have are smaller.
But if I'm a team picking in the 2nd round, I look at Alexander and I say to myself, "where's the upside here?" Same thing with Bufkin if I'm picking in the lottery.
I'm not saying this risk averse draft philosophy is wrong. I'm simply offering a different viewpoint. Personally, I'm taking Coleman Hawkins over Trey Alexander 10 times out of 10 (depending on the team context, and how both guys do in workouts, interviews and stuff, of course). Just like I'm taking GG Jackson over Bufkin..
I feel like outside of the top 20 or 25 picks, I'd rather take an upside swing. That's just me. I feel like the odds are pretty good Coleman Hawkins can bulk up a little bit (haven't researched it, but I'm pretty sure most bigs over the past 10-20 yrs or so add at least 15 lbs or so after arriving in the NBA, especially ones who are 21 or younger on draft night. And I think the odds are pretty good that he can improve in some of the areas he's not as strong in, considering a good % of a player's development takes place after he is drafted.
P.S. I think you know who this is haha
First off, I appreciate the feedback! Thanks for reading!
I definitely understand the logic you are bringing to the table here. With Hawkins, I simply don't see the upside being realistically attainable in a timeline that would benefit me as the team drafting him in 2023. I'm lower on him in general and see him as someone who need to improve in A LOT of areas. While smaller, I would actually be more interested in a player like Toumani Camara in that same range. He has an NBA body, can plug-and-play a bit more easily, has a clear-cut defensive role, and only really needs to improve as a jump shooter to have a good, long career. If he's shooting, with his body and how he moves, that's someone who could be a playoff rotation guy. And with him, I'm focusing primarily on developing one skill. With Hawkins, I need the defensive consistency, decision-making, jump shot, and size to all get there. I also wonder about how beneficial the passing Hawkins brings to the table is when he will be a lower priority in an NBA offense-- is a team realistically going to be letting him operate as a distributor? Does he have gravity as a short roller/pick-and-pop option? I'm not so sure. Even Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who is older but came to the game late, may offer similar upside to Hawkins with less lapses while guarding down more consistently (even if the 5 is off the table for him entirely due to how wiry he is). I think Tomlin is a sneaky good decision maker relative to his size and experience, too.
Bufkin is actually someone I'm a tad lower on, especially with regard to where the consensus is going, and I've never had a lottery grade on him. I'd actually lean more toward upside there-- players like Sensabaugh, Coulibaly, Lewis. With Trey Alexander in the second, I simply see a guy who could be a long-term NBA player available on a cheap contract and offer some valuable, ready-made skills without taking much off the table.
The primary reason why I go more risk-averse in the second is that I feel many of the recent second round hits have been the more "boring," safe prospects in recent years. Gary Trent Jr., Jarred Vanderbilt, Shake Milton, Xavier Tillman, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, Jericho Sims, Andrew Nembhard...these guys weren't exactly thrilling. Their roles and fits were pretty straightforward, they'd shown how they could produce in those roles, and they did. That's good value. On the other hand, guys like Bol Bol tend to be the outliers. There just haven't been a ton of big swings-and-hits for home runs in the second in recent years. I'm not opposed to it as a practice, and there's times that it's worth striking out, but it just doesn't seem like a worthwhile gamble to me in many instances if you KNOW (to the extent that you can "know" anything in scouting) there's an NBA player on the board. Of course, there are plenty of "safe" prospects in the second who bust, too.
Again, I always appreciate the insights and feedback! I love to be challenged on my viewpoints and I'm always trying to grow as an evaluator. I'm never going to get better at anything if I don't consider the other ideas that exist. Always here for the discussion!
Fair points all around.