Water Testers and Gatecrashers | The Prospect Overview

These five prospects are dipping their toes in the NBA draft waters, but don't be surprised if they end up jumping in the pool. PLUS: March Madness and CBI scouting notes!

Feature: Water Testers and Gatecrashers

As college teams wrap up their seasons, a new season begins. It is now, “With that being said” season (trademark Jake Stephens of the Capital City Go-Go). Players post beautifully designed graphics of themselves, thank their fans, teammates, and coaches, use the “with that being said,” line, and announce what’s next for their careers. Today, I want to focus on five players who have announced that as a part of their basketball journey, they’ll be testing the NBA Draft waters this spring. These players all have the option to return to school based on how the pre-draft process goes and what types of NIL opportunities may exist for them at the college level. But I wanted to focus on these five in particular because I believe they all have a chance to be legitimate gatecrashers over these next few months. While they might not be on a lot of mock drafts now, they do have NBA upside. If these players turn heads, they could end up staying in the draft and hearing their names called on draft night.

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Amari Williams, 6’10”, Last Played at Drexel, One Year of Eligibility Remaining

2023-2024 Season Stats:

12.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.4 TOV, 1.8 BPG, 0.8 SPPG

What’s the pitch?

I firmly believe that Amari Williams has the skill set and physical tools to anchor an NBA defense. I’ve long been a fan of Williams, and he’s the only player that I covered during both years of my No Stone Unturned series. He posted the best defensive rating in the country as a junior. This past season, he posted an 8.3 BLK% and 2.2 STL%. The metrics are there, and my goodness, does the eye test back it up.

First off, let’s talk about Williams from a tools perspective. My goodness. The dude looks like an NBA center. He’s 6’10” with a reported 7’5” wingspan and tips the scales at 265 pounds. Given his power and sheer size, he’s difficult to move on the interior and on the glass. Even better, Williams moves like an NBA big. He flies off the floor and boasts a shocking amount of quickness for a man of his stature.

Tools are great, but they aren’t everything. There are a lot of players with NBA tools who never string together meaningful careers. Williams is a great athlete with NBA size, but he’s also proven himself to be a high-level processor of the game. He’s a quick thinker who reacts at the drop of a hat. He’ll spring into action to rotate and swat the shot of a cutter. He’s also the rare big man who can casually dart into passing lanes on the perimeter before leading the break himself. Wherever he needs to go, he gets there in a hurry. The icing on the cake is that Williams dominates defensively without fouling, averaging only 1.4 fouls per game this past year. If an NBA team wants him to hang back in drop coverage and deter shots at the rim, he’ll come in with the length and feel to do that. If an organization wants a bit more out of their big man defensively, though, Williams has the skills necessary to play in a wider variety of schemes.

Mid-major and low-major prospects always face questions about how they’ll scale up against better competition. Williams has his bases covered on that front. As a junior, he posted 14 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and two steals against Seton Hall. This past season, his 12-point, 15-rebound outing helped the Dragons play West Virginia to a tight game. His stifling defense against Villanova held the Wildcats to 55 points. Williams posted 12 points and five blocks in that contest. Few “smaller school” players have the resume that Williams does against high-major opposition. He’s never looked out of place when faced with higher-level opponents, and in fact, he’s thrived in those settings.

What does he need to prove?

Williams will need to show NBA teams that he can bring value on the offensive end of the court. To be clear, Williams isn’t a disaster on this end. He was Drexel’s leading scorer as a junior and second-leading scorer as a senior. His speed makes him a great rim-runner, and his rebounding prowess gets him easy, low-maintenance putback opportunities. Williams also has some phenomenal moments as a passer, which is why he’s posted a 19.4 AST% over the past two seasons. There’s a real level of creativity to him, though he does turn it over more than I’d like.

The issue is just that he didn’t play much of an NBA-style role in college. A hefty majority of his possessions came on the block. Given his size, Williams often drew doubles, leading to an inefficient scoring output (51.9 eFG%). In the association, he’ll likely be utilized more as a screener, roller, and dunker spot guy. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if his passing flashes can better actualize themselves in a short roll setting. If Williams fares well on these types of possessions during the pre-draft process, it’s easy to see teams getting excited about him. He’s physically ready and he’s ready on defense, so if he can prove that he’s up to the task offensively, there will be little holding him back.

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Saint Thomas, 6’7”, Last Played at Northern Colorado, One Year of Eligibility Remaining

2023-2024 Season Stats:

19.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 3.0 TOV, 1.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG

What’s the pitch?

Size and productivity. When throwing on a Northern Colorado game, Saint Thomas would stick out like a sore thumb. Between his positional size and statistical dominance, he felt too big for the Big Sky in more than one way. He used his pro-level physical tools to leave an imprint on every element of the game this season.

Let’s start with the offense—Thomas was a three-level scorer this year. While his 33% from long range may not be the most inspiring mark, the fact that he did it with a high degree of difficulty on 6.2 attempts per game inspires confidence. Thomas is also a dazzling mid-range scorer, converting 44.9% of his pull-up twos this past season. His 62.6% mark on halfcourt rim attempts shows that he’s effective at the cup, too. Thomas has a good first step and can get up well off one foot. Add in his strong frame, and he can convert through contact. He’s more than just a scorer, too. Thomas displays a basic understanding of his gravity with the ball. He can make more advanced passing reads, and his occasional look-offs freeze the opposing defense. Still, he can make the quick, sharp swings that will be a bigger part of his professional role. His 23.4 AST% is a higher-end mark for someone who played the three.

Thomas can get it done defensively, too. He’s long, strong, and tough. This makes him difficult to get around at the point of attack. He’s an outstanding playmaker, too, as he finished the year with a 2.7 STL% and 2.8 BLK%. He moves his hands quickly. Add in his length, and racking up steals becomes easy. He can poke into the handle of the ball handler at the point of attack or use his wingspan to tip passes. Thomas excels at sneaking up from behind players on the interior before swatting their shots. The ease with which he gets off the floor also helps him get his fingers on the occasional mid-range shot. Another thing that stands out on film is how good he is at staying vertical while contesting shots around the basket, which tends to be less common among non-bigs. Speaking of performing like a big, his DRB% of 26.6 demonstrates his prowess on the glass. He simply plays bigger than he is on defense while maintaining the movement skills of a true wing.

What does he need to prove?

NBA teams will want to see what Thomas looks like on a court full of similarly talented players. I don’t doubt that he can perform at a high level—he had 27 points and nine rebounds against Colorado back in December. But Thomas has gotten to be a “very on-ball” player at Northern Colorado this year. Almost half of his jump shots came off the dribble. In his prior stop at Loyola-Chicago, he never got much of an opportunity whatsoever. For that reason, the sample size of what he might look like in a reduced role is basically non-existent, at least in college.

First, there will need to be some tweaking to his shot diet at the next level. If Thomas was a knockdown catch-and-shoot guy, it would be easier to buy. Unfortunately, he only made 33.6% of his catch-and-shoot triples this past year. His guide hand is heavily involved in his shot, and it almost appears as if he’s about to shoot with both hands prior to releasing the ball. Additionally, while Thomas makes some clever passes, he throws some errant ones. Throw in a handle that gets high sometimes, and he can become turnover-prone.

I do see the turnover issue as a relatively easy fix. In a simplified role, he’ll be able to stick to more basic reads and won’t have to carry an enormous playmaking burden. The shot is something of a sticking point. The indicators are strong—he makes tough mid-range shots with regularity and he’s a great free throw shooter (86.8%). If Thomas goes into workouts and knocks down shots, teams are going to think, “Oh wow, here’s a do-everything wing with NBA size.” While Thomas has the option to go back to school, don’t write off the possibility of him wooing front offices to the point that going pro is what makes more sense.

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AJ Storr, 6’7”, Last Played at Wisconsin, Two Years of Eligibility Remaining

2023-2024 Season Stats:

16.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.6 TOV, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG

What’s the pitch?

AJ Storr is a professional scorer who loves physicality. The efficiency (43.4/32.0/81.2) may not jump off the page, but that was largely a function of his role. Storr was the go-to bucket-getter and bailout guy for the Badgers this season and for good reason: he can create his own shot and convert at all three levels.

My favorite trait of Storr is his finishing. While he only made 53.6% of his halfcourt rim attempts this year, he got there frequently, taking 39.6% of his shots at the cup. Add in that Wisconsin didn’t take a lot of threes this year, and Storr was often driving into a crowded paint. Still, he got the job done. His first step off the catch is nice, but Storr can get where he wants with his handle, too. He’s a potent leaper off both one and two feet, allowing him to get up above the rim to finish. If there are defenders in his way, he’ll simply look to put them on a poster. He’s tough against contact and still has some touch when he can’t get an easy look.

Storr has a mid-range scoring bag at his disposal as well. He plays ball screens in different ways to get defenders off balance. He decelerates and changes directions well, enabling him to further generate space. While Storr may not be the most reliable three-point shooter yet, he’s made 36.5% of his catch-and-shoot threes through his two college seasons. While he can do the basics, Storr has also flashed impressive off-the-bounce shot-making capabilities from long-range. Add in his physical profile (tall, strong lower half), and it’s easy to see why NBA teams may bite on Storr.

What does he need to prove?

The issue with Storr is that outside of his scoring, there isn’t a clear-cut second skill. He doesn’t see the floor particularly well and posted a firmly negative assist-to-turnover ratio. A sub-7 AST% on a 31.9 usage rate is a scary combination. It’s rare for a player to have the ball that often and tally so few assists. While Storr isn’t mistake-prone by any means, he’s much more of an eater than a chef with the ball in his hands. Storr will often get stuck and shoot his way out of a situation rather than moving on from the ball.

What I’ve found to be most frustrating is his lack of output defensively. Given his physical tools, it feels like he should be more productive as a playmaker. His 1.3 STL%, 0.5 BLK%, and 12.5 DRB% are numbers I’d typically associate with less athletic, sub-NBA three-point shooting specialists. He’s what I call a “hunchy” defender. Rather than bending at his knees to sit in his stance, he sort of just leans forward with his upper body. It’s really hard to move and slide with that sort of posture. This posture makes it difficult for him to stay in front, deal with ball screens, and respond to the initial move of the ball handler. Given his tools, there’s real room for upside here, but a lot needs to be tuned up.

The pre-draft process will be interesting for Storr. He’s going to enter workouts capable of lighting up just about anybody that gets put in front of him. But teams already know that. How Storr manages to rebound, defend, and move the ball will swing his fortunes. There’s no shame in going back to school if he can’t put it all together in a few short months. But if Storr does look like a more complete player, NBA interest will be more than understandable.

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Kobe Johnson, 6’6”, Last Played at USC, One Year of Eligibility Remaining

2023-2024 Season Stats:

10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 TOV, 2.2 SPG, 0.8 BPG

What’s the pitch?

The way that Kobe Johnson defends and passes screams, “playoff rotation player.” He’s been on NBA radars for a while and is far and away the most well-known commodity on this list. The defense is really what stands out. Johnson’s 4.1 STL% and 2.9 BLK% are outstanding numbers for a wing prospect. Looking at high-major prospects over the last ten years who met those marks, there are a lot of high-level NBA defenders—names such as Tari Eason, Gary Payton II, De’Anthony Melton, and Matisse Thybulle. That’s the type of production Johnson is bringing to the table.

Johnson makes plays in a few distinct ways. The first thing that stands out is how well he uses his hands on defense. He’s great at getting in low for strips when he’s matched up against someone under the basket, a key skill that will help him at the next level if he gets mismatch hunted by larger opponents. He also times his digs exceptionally well. His timing is electric, whether it’s to dart a passing lane for a steal or swat an opponent’s jumper in the mid-range. Johnson’s ability to track the ball as a shot blocker is out of this world. He’s great at sneaking up behind players and getting a hand on their shots. Additionally, Johnson holds up much better through his chest against drivers than one might expect given that he isn’t bulky. This playmaking is anchored by strong rotational instincts and a high motor. He hauls butt to wherever he needs to go, but he still has the recovery tools to get his balance back under him in a hurry. That makes his closeouts some of the most potent in college hoops.

He’s a skilled offensive player, too. Johnson posted a career-high 20.3 AST% and a career-low 16.0 TOV% this year. He’s a trustworthy operator going downhill. He excels at identifying seams in the defense and continuing advantages. Once he gets inside, he still maintains a level of poise. He has great eyes for dump-off passes, but he can also make more advanced, on-the-fly reads to cutters or shooters. Johnson can operate within the flow of the offense, and he’s not one to overdribble, but he still has the playmaking prowess to adapt to what’s happening around him when things go off script. His blend of refinement and sharp thinking as a decision-maker bodes well for him at the next level.

What does he need to prove?

NBA teams will want Kobe Johnson to show that he can put the ball in the hoop efficiently. After a shaky scoring season as a freshman (1.2 PPG on 32.4/28.6/75.0 splits), Johnson took real steps forward as a sophomore (9.2 PPG on 46.8/36.0/84.1 splits). While he posted a career-high 10.9 PPG, it came on 40.4/31.3/72.6 splits.

When digging deeper, there’s some good and bad in here. Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way. Johnson’s dip back down to 31.3% from deep puts him in a precarious position. He’s listed at 6’6”, but I’d bet he’ll measure closer to 6’5”. There aren’t a lot of 6’5” guys who are positive contributors in bigger minute roles that are that far below league average as three-point shooters. This isn’t a “well he took an obscene amount of tough ones” thing, either. He only made 32.2% of his catch-and-shoot threes. He’s not much of a pull-up shooter, either, hitting only 31.6% of his dribble jumper twos, per Synergy. That’s pretty scary.

Still, there’s hope. Just one year ago, Johnson made 38.4% of his catch-and-shoot threes, though they were mostly unguarded. He’s also become an increasingly willing three-point shooter. His number of three-point attempts per 100 possessions has increased each year, going from 4.1 as a freshman to 5.3 as a sophomore to 7.7 as a junior. If nothing else, he’s a willing shooter, and that alone provides a level of gravity.

This type of player can be a dicey proposition. While I mentioned some of the standouts who met Johnson’s defensive production thresholds, there were three non-NBA players on the full list. Syracuse’s Maliq Brown might get there in time, but Mississippi State’s Cameron Matthews is a long shot. The name that scared me most, though, was the third—Josh Reaves. The 6’5” Reaves posted an eerily similar statistical profile to Johnson during his tenure at Penn State, and he’s struggled to get over the G League hump. The shorter the player, the harder it is to get rotational minutes without a reliable jump shot, even if the defense and playmaking are there.

Still, at a certain point in the draft, you have to start taking swings. If there were 60 guys who all profiled as sure-thing NBA contributors, this would be a much easier process. But that’s not the case. At a certain point, teams must take a leap of faith and hope that a player can fill out their problem areas. And this happens every single year. Players fall to the second round or go undrafted because of a perceived shortcoming only to find a role anyway. Kobe Johnson could be one of those dudes if he stays in this year. A front office who trusts their staff’s ability to develop shooters should take a long, hard look at Kobe Johnson during the pre-draft process.

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Zeke Mayo, 6’4”, Last Played at South Dakota State, One Year of Eligibility Remaining

2023-2024 Season Stats:

18.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 3.1 TOV, 1.1 SPG, 0.2 BPG

What’s the pitch?

Zeke Mayo is a legitimate three-level scorer who can operate with or without the ball. Per Synergy, Mayo ranked in the 90th percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer and the 94th percentile on spot ups. The guard position in the NBA is changing. While it’s still a necessity for guards to create for themselves and others, it’s equally important for smaller players to be effective spot-up players. Mayo checks both of those boxes.

Mayo is a great three-point shooter. He connected on 39.1% of his triples this year while launching 10.9 attempts per 100 possessions as the Jackrabbits' leading option. Because he commanded so much defensive attention, he rarely got easy looks. Per Synergy, only 40 of his 239 threes were unguarded catch-and-shoot looks. Otherwise, Mayo was pulling up from long range or shooting over a defender, often from the NBA line. He’s dynamite off the catch, having made 43.6% of those looks. But his pull-up scoring ability gives him an extra dimension.

Mayo knocked down 34.7% of his off-the-dribble threes and 47.5% of his off-the-dribble twos, per Synergy. Mayo has a slick handle and excellent offensive footwork. He can dance with the ball and he’s difficult to telegraph, allowing him to shake defenders and generate space for himself anywhere he wants it on the court. Mayo toys with ball screens, manipulates defenders, and utilizes his hostage dribble well to maximize advantages. Good things happen when he gets to the rim, too, as his bulky body and solid elevation off one foot help him convert at the basket. He made 61.4% of his halfcourt rim attempts this season and got there more frequently.

His frame is worth focusing on for a second, too. At 6’4” and 185 pounds, Mayo is no slouch physically. He doesn’t get bumped around or bullied. He’s always been an above-average rebounder for a guard (17.5 DRB% over the past two seasons), and his toughness and strength are a big reason for that. These things matter in a league where teams mismatch hunt smaller opponents. He also made subtle defensive improvements despite his bigger role, moving better in his stance and playing with a higher degree of effort.

What does he need to prove?

There are two things Mayo will need to show teams—that he’s a legitimate point guard and that he’s up to the task athletically. The passing flashes have always been there for Mayo. Still, he’s been a bit more turnover-prone than some scouts would like, with a 3.5 to 3.0 A:TO over the past two seasons. While Mayo does a great job of manipulating defenses and creating advantageous situations, he still tends to get a bit forceful with his reads and deliveries. The good news is that because he’s such a savvy ball screen operator, there’s reason to believe that he can slow things down and improve on this front. Athletically, Mayo has always been a “low dunks” guy, but I don’t think he’s outrageously behind the curve or anything. Still, front offices will likely see a mid-major guard who doesn’t register a lot of dunks and blocks and be concerned. How well he hangs from a physical standpoint in team workouts will sway things.

Ultimately, the appetite for guards is lower than ever before. But the guards who do make it tend to look like Mayo—taller, physical, calculated, and capable of playing with or without the ball. I’ve heard positive things about Mayo as a worker and teammate, which further bolster his chances. After a potent scoring outing against a nasty Iowa State defensive backcourt, Mayo has shown he can cook against high-level opposition. If he does that throughout the pre-draft process, he may shed the mid-major guard stigma and turn himself into a 2024 guy.

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Latest Draft Sickos

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Quick Hits

Let’s start by talking about that big tournament that’s going on. Of course, I’m referring to the CBI!

-Seattle won the other other big dance. They’re fronted by Cameron Tyson, a lights-out perimeter scorer. To be frank, he’s not my cup of tea from an NBA standpoint. At 6’2”, he posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and he offers little on the defensive end. That said, he’s going to be a pro somewhere, because my goodness can this guy hit tough shots. He made 39.4% of his threes while taking over ten a game, and they aren’t easy ones either. He’s a ridiculous shot-maker who can drain triples off movement without needing to set his feet. It’s not an archetype you see much in the association, but he’s a special shooter who will get looks.

-The runner-up squad (High Point) had some legitimately intriguing NBA prospects, starting with Juslin Bodo Bodo. I love his game. The 7’0” freshman is your quintessential “blocks and dunks” big man. He has a high motor and flies off the floor to swat shots and jam the rock. His help instincts are impressive and he’s strong through his chest around the basket. His presence in the paint deters drivers and forces mistakes. He’s pretty comfortable guarding out in space, too. The man is a force on the glass, with a 25.3 DRB% and 19.9 ORB%. Bodo Bodo is raw, as evident by his extremely low assist numbers (seven total in 36 games) and poor free throw percentage (39.8 FT%). Still, there are some excellent building blocks in place for him as he rounds out his skill set.

-I’m also interested in High Point’s Kimani Hamilton. The 6’7” sophomore combines a good first step, herky-jerky handle, and quirky movement patterns to create advantages. Hamilton gets to the rim a lot and he elevates well at the cup. He sees the floor well, and his 2.3 APG to 1.6 TOV are strong marks for a wing. Defensively, he’s able to guard up and down the lineup. He uses his length well, generating strips on and off the ball. Hamilton can stick with guys laterally and gets up easily from his slide. With both STL% and BLK% numbers over 2, he’s a true disruptive force. The make-or-break skill for him will be his shot. Through two seasons, he’s only made 28.5% of his threes. His release is low and funky. Still, the fact that he’s made 79.7% of his free throws inspires hope. Plus, he does so much else, that if he’s just sniffing average, he’d be in the mix. Keep an eye on him going forward.

-Bradley forward Malevy Leons has received an invite to the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. He’s a 6’9” 3-and-D guy. Leons posted exceptional defensive playmaking metrics this past season with a 2.7 STL% and 5.0 BLK%. His arms are long, and he’s constantly using them to create havoc. Still, he does all of this without gambling much at all. The two-time Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year will be a nightmare matchup throughout the event. A 35.7% three-point shooter, Leons brings some shooting to the table, too. The rest of his offensive game is relatively simple. How well he holds up as a passer, driver, and shooter on courts filled with high-level talent will determine how high he can climb.

-Let’s touch on a few players who were recently eliminated from the NCAA tournament. We’ll start with DaRon Holmes II, who went out with a 23-point, 11-rebound, three-assist outing against Arizona. While the biggest bodies for the Wildcats gave Holmes trouble at times, seeing him anchor a defense and more than hold his own on the glass against high-major opposition was great to see. It’s a real testament to how much better he’s been at playing through and against contact. He’s improved significantly as a passer and jump shooter, too. His ability to move into shots in the mid-range and beyond is tantalizing, especially given how well he can put it on the deck against closeouts. I’d been skeptical of Holmes coming into the year, but his trajectory has been overwhelmingly positive all year, and he deserves an immense amount of credit for that.

-We saw the last of Keshad Johnson’s career. Arizona’s 6’7” graduate took a massive step forward as a shooter, both in terms of willingness and efficiency this year. A career 24.6% three-point shooter on one attempt per game prior to this season, Johnson made 38.7% of his 2.6 threes per game during his final campaign. His nimble feet and overwhelming power make him one of the more versatile defenders in this class. His size, toughness, and multi-faceted skill set make him one of my favorite sleepers in the 2024 class.

-Tristan Da Silva made strides throughout this season, and his stock is benefiting from it in a big way. At this point, it’s hard to see him falling out of the first round. The 6’8” senior knocked down 39.5% of his threes this year. That alone raises eyebrows, but when factoring in his passing feel (2.4 APG to 1.8 TOV) and improved off-ball activity, and there’s a fairly obvious NBA skill set here. Defensively, his length and footwork go a long way when it comes to keeping him above board. He’s one of those guys where it’s hard to see him falling out of the league entirely. Even if he doesn’t have the highest ceiling as an older prospect who can struggle with physicality, he feels like a safe role player bet.