These five prospects are dipping their toes in the NBA draft waters, but don't be surprised if they end up jumping in the pool. PLUS: March Madness and CBI scouting notes!
Thanks for the write-up, I’m most interested in your first two prospects Williams and Saint Thomas (great name!). I’m coming at this from a Raptors fan perspective where we have 7-8 real NBA players on the roster for sure, leaving the same number of spots open. Are Thomas and Willaims better than Jordan Nwora and Jaden McDaniels? Where does Ochai Agbaji fit in your list of prospects? After watching 2 or 3 games of Dalton Knecht, is he really way better than Gary Trent JR.?
The key here is that with the transfer portal, these prosepcts you are identifying are the same age as the players I’ve listed. The transfer portal has allowed very good college coaches to improve a large number of players in a much better way than freshman going to the NBA (Imagine of Mo Bamba had stayed in school).
Could you think about an essay comparing fringe players on NBA rosters with upperclass college prospects?
I think comparing fringe players with prospects is a great exercise, and it's something we do from time to time on the Draft Sickos podcast. There's a lot to get into, so I'll take it piece by piece.
-I think Nwora has been pretty rough this year. I like the size and shooting, but the shot hasn't fallen this year. Jalen just hasn't been a super cohesive player the last two seasons. I'd be more likely to hang on to Nwora at this point. Personally, I'd rather just role the dice on Thomas and Williams at this point just because I doubt Nwora or McDaniels will move the needle in a significant way at this point. It doesn't mean Thomas or Williams will necessarily succeed, but it's a different bite at the apple.
-I've always been a bit of an Ochai apologist, although his lack of in-between game and passing woes have seriously limited how effective he is this year. I don't want to give up on him yet, because I do think the athleticism/shooting combo is enough to be a solid rotation guy if he can get the shot back on track.
-I do think Knecht will be better than Gary Trent. Maybe not immediately, but in time. He's coming in taller, probably longer with a better frame. He's going to provide more on the defensive glass and he's got more bounce to him.
I really appreciate you taking the time to read and asking though questions. They were incredibly thoughtful. I think that type of analysis/line of questioning is really important and often goes underdiscussed when looking at team building. It's really important to consider, "do we just like this prospect that we have better?" and "does it make sense to double up on this archetype?" when making those late round picks or UDFA pickups.
I loved Kobe Johnson all season outside of the shooting. Do you see this season as more of an outlier or last season. When I watch him his form, particularly in the lower half, looks way better than 31%, which makes me think he's probably closer to 35% than he is 30%
I've always bought into the idea that he can become an average shooter. I don't think either is outlier one way or the other, to be honest. On lower volume, with fewer guarded attempts, that's about where he's at (sophomore year). This year, on higher volume and more defensive respect, the numbers dropped a bit. Ultimately, I wish he were on a faster shooting improvement trajectory, but the willingness to shoot without the percentage cratering is at least something.
Thanks for the write-up, I’m most interested in your first two prospects Williams and Saint Thomas (great name!). I’m coming at this from a Raptors fan perspective where we have 7-8 real NBA players on the roster for sure, leaving the same number of spots open. Are Thomas and Willaims better than Jordan Nwora and Jaden McDaniels? Where does Ochai Agbaji fit in your list of prospects? After watching 2 or 3 games of Dalton Knecht, is he really way better than Gary Trent JR.?
The key here is that with the transfer portal, these prosepcts you are identifying are the same age as the players I’ve listed. The transfer portal has allowed very good college coaches to improve a large number of players in a much better way than freshman going to the NBA (Imagine of Mo Bamba had stayed in school).
Could you think about an essay comparing fringe players on NBA rosters with upperclass college prospects?
I mean Jalen McDaniels, of course
I think comparing fringe players with prospects is a great exercise, and it's something we do from time to time on the Draft Sickos podcast. There's a lot to get into, so I'll take it piece by piece.
-I think Nwora has been pretty rough this year. I like the size and shooting, but the shot hasn't fallen this year. Jalen just hasn't been a super cohesive player the last two seasons. I'd be more likely to hang on to Nwora at this point. Personally, I'd rather just role the dice on Thomas and Williams at this point just because I doubt Nwora or McDaniels will move the needle in a significant way at this point. It doesn't mean Thomas or Williams will necessarily succeed, but it's a different bite at the apple.
-I've always been a bit of an Ochai apologist, although his lack of in-between game and passing woes have seriously limited how effective he is this year. I don't want to give up on him yet, because I do think the athleticism/shooting combo is enough to be a solid rotation guy if he can get the shot back on track.
-I do think Knecht will be better than Gary Trent. Maybe not immediately, but in time. He's coming in taller, probably longer with a better frame. He's going to provide more on the defensive glass and he's got more bounce to him.
I really appreciate you taking the time to read and asking though questions. They were incredibly thoughtful. I think that type of analysis/line of questioning is really important and often goes underdiscussed when looking at team building. It's really important to consider, "do we just like this prospect that we have better?" and "does it make sense to double up on this archetype?" when making those late round picks or UDFA pickups.
I loved Kobe Johnson all season outside of the shooting. Do you see this season as more of an outlier or last season. When I watch him his form, particularly in the lower half, looks way better than 31%, which makes me think he's probably closer to 35% than he is 30%
I've always bought into the idea that he can become an average shooter. I don't think either is outlier one way or the other, to be honest. On lower volume, with fewer guarded attempts, that's about where he's at (sophomore year). This year, on higher volume and more defensive respect, the numbers dropped a bit. Ultimately, I wish he were on a faster shooting improvement trajectory, but the willingness to shoot without the percentage cratering is at least something.
Makes sense. Thanks so much!