Winning Isn't Boring, and Neither is Alex Karaban

UConn's Alex Karaban might be considered "boring," but players like Baylor Scheierman and Tristan Da Silva have laid the blueprint for his three-point shooting, quick-thinking, physical style.

Let’s talk about the “Boredom Paradox.”

People don’t like being bored. If you wanted to talk to me about, say, the latest season of…*realizing I have no pop culture interests outside of basketball and I don’t know what TV shows exist*… Gossip Girl (?), I’d probably think, “That doesn’t sound very appealing.” If content isn’t particularly exciting to me, I’m not eager to consume it. I’m not alone. Recently, a University of Michigan doctoral student, Elizabeth Trinh, MA, conducted a study on this topic. Her findings were fascinating. They took a group of 1,800 participants and set them up to discuss topics they anticipated would be boring. If a subject wasn’t interested in learning about World War I, they’d have them talk about it. They found that subjects reported enjoying these discussions far more than they’d anticipated. You can read more about the study here.

Because, as I mentioned previously, my life revolves around basketball, I immediately applied it to basketball. I thought about two players in particular—Baylor Scheierman and Tristan Da Silva. By the time they’d wrapped up their college careers, they felt, well, a little boring. They were known quantities who could shoot the ball, move the ball (Scheierman had more juice, whereas Da Silva was more connective), and use their size well enough to not be decimated on the defensive end. They weren’t the highest ceiling propositions. Scheierman is a poor run-jump athlete who doesn’t slide his feet particularly well, and Da Silva’s advantage creation has long been limited due to his lack of strength and upright posture.

Still, teams that found them “too boring” on draft night may have paid a price. Both players posted positive VORP marks in their second NBA seasons, and they’re both in the rotation for their respective teams in the playoffs. At the end of the day, many role players are tasked with a few primary responsibilities: be tall, make your shots, make good decisions, and don’t get killed on defense. Scheierman and Da Silva do just that.

This year, one of these players who checks these boxes emphatically is Alex Karaban. The redshirt senior from UConn has been slapped with the “boring,” “low ceiling” label. Maybe he’s boring to some, but to me, finding players who can meaningfully contribute to winning basketball isn’t boring, and for that reason, Alex Karaban isn’t boring.

Shooting

Alex Karaban’s most important offensive skill, at least as it pertains to his NBA translation, is his three-point shooting. He hit 37.4% of his threes over the course of his college career while launching 9.6 attempts per 100 possessions. While those numbers don’t necessarily scream “shooting specialist,” his dynamism, degree of difficulty, and mechanics beg to differ. For starters, Karaban is a super savvy relocator. Per Synergy, he ranked in the 98th percentile of spot-up efficiency and hit 50% of his 66 attempts in that context this past season. Karaban knows how to position himself openly. From there, he has a fast release, avoiding a mechanical dip and getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry to get his shot out over any potential incoming closeouts.

Karaban’s movement shooting is a bit hit-or-miss. While he’s shown the ability to hit threes flying off his screens, it’s not his best trait. UConn ran Karaban off a lot of screens, so he is comfortable in that context, but the results from deep have been inconsistent. Karaban isn’t particularly quick or shifty, so generating that initial separation doesn’t always come easily. Still, there are ways for him to find openings that create problems for the defense. In particular, I like how Karaban gets into his shot as a screener. When he does set a pick, he’s not afraid to bruise the defender with his physicality. He’s also capable of ghosting the screen, which can lead to communication errors, especially when he gets plenty of daylight. I always try to ask myself if a player will get their shots by coming off screens or by setting them. While Karaban can come off them, I think he’s more dynamic as a screen setter, at least from distance.

Interior Scoring

Alex Karaban will likely have a high three-point attempt rate at the next level. Still, in a playoff series, opposing teams are looking to diminish every possible strength from their opponents. There will be times, however infrequent, that Karaban has to go downhill.

There’s good news and bad news. Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. Karaban has a slow first step, and it takes him a long time to get where he needs to go on the floor. Throw in a lack of shiftiness and his subpar bounce, and it’s tough for him to get clean looks at the rim when he’s run off the line.

Still, Karaban’s rim numbers this season were quite good, particularly for his archetype. Per Synergy, he took 32.5% of his half-court shots at the basket, which is a much greater frequency than most in the “shooter” mold. There are a few key factors at play here. First off, Karaban has a super optimized shot diet. He doesn’t settle or force mid-range looks. Second, the dude is strong. He’s really good at holding his line downhill. Additionally, he’s patient. Karaban can use his hostage dribble and play a poised, under-control game to get where he wants inside. Then, there’s his efficiency. Karaban converted on 62.7% of his halfcourt rim attempts per Synergy, which is a rock-solid mark for a forward prospect. Karaban will never be the most dynamic creator or attacker, but he’s found a way to optimize the tools he does have (power and pace) to get good results. That will be harder at the next level, but the fact that he’s not a total zero inside the arc matters.

Playmaking

Alex Karaban is super reliable when it comes to managing the possession battle. He doesn’t make many mistakes. His 8.8 TOV% is super low, and it’s important to keep in mind. A low pre-draft turnover rate is a common trait among players who carve out “shoot it or move it” roles at the next level. He’s in the same ballpark as other bulky shooters like Sam Hauser (7.8 TOV%), Corey Kispert (8.7 TOV%), and Aaron Nesmith (9.3 TOV%) during their final college campaigns.

There’s more to Karaban than just “not screwing up,” though. He’s got some real savvy to him. He has your basic, run-of-the-mill hot-potato stuff, which is what he’ll be doing most often. Rarely will Karaban hold onto the ball longer than he needs to, making him a perfect fit for the league’s “.5” approach to offense. That said, there’s more than just the simple stuff. Karaban made quick, sharp decisions when he received the ball after a handoff or an off-ball screen. He knows how to manipulate the defensive big man in those situations, and he can thread the needle with interior passes to get his screener good looks inside. Additionally, he keeps his eyes up and sees beyond the basic read, enabling him to sling it to shooters in the weakside corner and slot. Karaban’s knack for marrying his low-mistake playstyle with an advanced ability to read the floor should bode well for his NBA future.

On-Ball Defense

The question with offensively tilted shooters who lack premier athletic traits is often, “Well, how bad is the defense?” With Alex Karaban, there are certainly concerns, but I’m convinced that he can reach a neutral enough outcome to be a positive impact player overall.

At the NBA Combine in 2024, he came in at 6’6.5” barefoot with a 6’11” wingspan, an 8’10.5” standing reach, and a 219.2-pound weight. Simply put, he’s got a good frame and rock-solid positional size. He likes to use it, too. Karaban does a good job of using his length to make opponents feel uncomfortable simply shooting the ball over him. When they drive at him, he does a great job of absorbing his opponent into his body once players get into the mid-range area. I harped on this in my Milan Momcilovic article, but for the opposite reasons, as Momcilovic is often in retreat rather than leveraging his physicality. A shooter like Sam Hauser has been able to avoid being targeted by opponents simply because he’ll overwhelm them with his body. While Karaban isn’t quite to that level (more on that later), he’s able to put his frame to proper use and make opponents play into him. From there, he’s able to swallow them up and force tough, smothered looks.

Still, he has his hiccups from time to time. Karaban can play too far back for too long at times, an issue that could be exacerbated when he’s matched up with better pull-up shooters more consistently at the NBA level. Additionally, there are times when he doesn’t attack with his lateral steps early enough, ceding too much ground to opponents and allowing them to get too deep into the paint. Then, there’s the fact that he’s somewhat of a clunky lateral mover, which opens him up to being shaken by snappy dribble moves. While Karaban is unlikely to make tremendous athletic strides, the issues of technique can be addressed. Ultimately, I think the good at the point-of-attack is enough to outweigh some of his shortcomings long-term, at least as it pertains to reaching a passable level.

Defensive Disruption

Some scouts place much greater weight on off-ball defense when evaluating NBA outcomes. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag here. As previously mentioned, Karaban isn’t an out-of-this-world mover by any stretch. He’s not the fastest straight-line mover, and when he has to change directions rotationally, it takes him a moment to gather himself and shift his position. Throw in the fact that he’s not the bounciest, and he’s unlikely to be a high-level event creator at the next level. That said, there’s stuff to work with here.

Karaban had a 1.5 STL% this past season, which is below average for a forward by NBA standards. Part of it is that he’s more conservative at the point of attack, and the other part of it is that he doesn’t have the north-south burst to explode into passing lanes for pick-six steals. Still, he’s good for a strip from time to time. He’s powerful when he digs in on the ball, and he excels at getting in low on the rock around the basket. Karaban also knows how to play as the low man from the weak side of the floor. His rotations around the basket are on point, his strength helps him to stay vertical while contesting, and he’s good enough at tracking the ball to get his hands on it fairly often. His 2.8 BLK% this past season and career 3.3 BLK% are solid marks for a forward during their college tenure. While Karaban will never draw comparisons to Ausar Thompson, his timing, length, and physicality give him ways to meaningfully contribute within a team’s defensive construct.

Conclusion

I have a firm first-round grade on Alex Karaban. Not “maybe first-round, maybe second-round.” It’s a firm first-round grade. I think he’s going to stick and be an above-replacement-level contributor for a long time. He’s consistently been a good shooter on healthy volume at the college level. His knack for finding holes in the defense, his quick release, and his ability to move into his shot have me encouraged that he’ll continue to be a good shooter on healthy volume in the NBA. Karaban has found ways to score inside, and while he’ll always be a primarily beyond-the-arc player, I’m fairly confident that he won’t be toast on the interior. He’s also a low-mistake passer who knows how to read the floor on the move, which is a valuable, needle-moving trait for a role player. While his lack of athletic tools will certainly cause some hiccups on the defense end, I think that his frame, awareness, and physicality will be enough for him to stay above board. In total, these are the traits of a player that can contribute to winning on any team in the league. If you want to place more value on a player that you perceive as more exciting or having a greater level of upside, feel free. But keep in mind—the things we anticipate being “boring” often bring us a lot more joy than we anticipate.