2026 NBA Draft Prospect Stocks UP After NCAA Tournament Weekend One
Our own Nathan Grubel dives into prospects projected mid-late first round in the 2026 NBA Draft or on that bubble who have significantly helped their cases during the NCAA Tournament's first weekend.
Evaluating NBA prospects during the NCAA Tournament is a risky exercise due to several factors, most notably how small a sample size the postseason truly is. But as I wrote about last week, narratives can control the dialogue around prospects, and lasting impressions DO matter when it comes to those making decisions on who to take with a pick.
Given how strong this college basketball postseason has already been, that means numerous prospects are improving their draft stocks by the game and making any decisions on whether to stay in college or go that much more difficult. And for rising seniors who have seen everything during their collegiate careers, there is no better month than March to leave that lasting impression on an NBA executive of just how much they’ve grown and, more importantly, what role they can serve at the next level.
We’ve already had some great performances from prospects rated at the top of the 2026 class, including AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, Darius Acuff Jr., and Brayden Burries, among others, who are pretty locked in to the consensus Top 10 of the draft.
So I wanted to examine some prospects who are currently projected in the mid-late first round range, or are on that first/second round bubble of sorts. Which players are producing like first round picks on the biggest stage in college basketball?
Here are my top rising prospects in those ranges, starting with this March’s more “unconventional” Cinderella story as an 11th seed marching on to the Sweet Sixteen.
Dailyn Swain, Texas
Dailyn Swain has been the driving force of this Texas offense all season long, and now he’s getting a chance to show his growth on the largest stage college basketball has to offer.
Texas had to fight its way into the Round of 64 and has now won two additional games to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, in large part because of Swain’s ball control and playmaking as a wing initiator.
A lot has been made by scouts this season about Swain’s efficiency as an isolation scorer, but I am far more intrigued by the possessions in which he’s deployed his talents as a playmaker, using a screen action or breaking that initial layer of the defense to make that next read for an open man.
Through two games in the tournament against BYU and Gonzaga, Swain has posted 12 assists to just ONE turnover. Ball control matters in the postseason, especially when it comes to players who command a higher usage of their team’s possessions. Losing the turnover battle is an easy way to exit stage right during the NCAA Tournament, but Texas has made great decisions largely because Swain hasn’t wasted possessions for the Longhorns.
What Swain does as a passer may not be incredibly sexy, as he’s not always skipping passes and threading the needle like a point guard. But everything about his playmaking is entirely functional because of the pressure he puts on the rim as an isolation driver. He immediately collapses defenders and draws attention, which he uses to kick the ball back out to whichever man is open due to their guy choosing to help on Swain’s drive.
Simple enough, right? Drive-and-kick offenses thrive in the NBA. It’s not just about blowing by that first man and taking that empty space, but what does that player actually do with said space? Swain wasn’t the scoring champion for Texas through its first few games, but he was the caretaker and leader from an efficiency standpoint, making the most of whatever the defense gave him.
Do I buy Swain as a primary option in the NBA? No, I don’t. BUT what I do value is when a wing gets experience running pick-and-roll offense, and operating from the top of the floor with the ball in their hands. I value these possessions because they let that player develop experience reading the route tree, if you will. It lets him go through his progressions not just from the first level of the defense, but also from the second and third levels: reading the taggers, the big man, and any other shifts/help that comes from that penetration, be it from an isolation blow-by or after accepting/rejecting the screen.
Swain has gotten a lot of experience in that regard at Texas under Sean Miller, and it’s going to pay off in a massive way once he gets to the NBA. Yes, the jump shot HAS to become a weapon for him on spot-up attempts at a bare minimum. But Swain has the athletic juice and passing feel to connect the dots when the ball is swung to him, and I have plenty of reason to believe he’ll buy back into more of the defensive versatility that made him such an intriguing prospect years ago at Xavier when he didn’t have to carry so much offensive burden as he has at Texas.
Swain and the Longhorns are the best story to come from the NCAA Tournament up to this point, and that has as much to do with Swain as it does Matas Vokietaitis, Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark, or anyone else on the team.
Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines frontcourt has been impressive all season long, and that hasn’t changed in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan has cruised into the Sweet Sixteen because of the efforts by Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. Lendeborg and Mara, in particular, have stood out to me the most through these first few games, even though Johnson is a very real 2026 prospect in his own right.
I wrote about Lendeborg last week and why I thought it was imperative for him to continue dominating in the postseason as he did during the regular season for his draft stock’s sake. Many, myself included, recognize how talented Yaxel is as a combo forward who can defend multiple positions, make plays on the ball, handle, and score/pass from nearly every spot on the floor. That player with his physical tools is exactly what NBA teams value in the modern, more positionless game.
But Lendeborg will turn 24 during his NBA rookie season. If an executive’s lasting impression of Lendeborg was him struggling defensively or not finding that shooting stroke when it mattered most, it wouldn’t mean a potential Top 10 selection for the experienced forward, given he couldn’t lock down a range that was best for all parties prior to the 2025 draft.
Well, Lendeborg has come into the tournament through two games, shooting well from three-point range and doing everything his team has needed from him to head into the Sweet Sixteen. Lendeborg has continued to be a star in a non-traditional way for the Wolverines, as he has been as comfortable as a primary option as much as a tertiary option when it’s been someone else’s time to shine. Lendeborg has committed to team basketball, and in my eyes, it’s made him even more valuable as a draft prospect. He doesn’t have to play one style, but has all of the skills to scale up or down as needed on both ends of the floor.
Mara is the one player who has routinely grabbed my attention over the last month in particular. Mara is a 7’3” center who swallows up possessions on defense, while having the post skill and passing ability to make teams pay depending on how they cover him on the low block. Mara’s playmaking in particular has caught a lot of scouting eyes as one of the most impressive tools in his arsenal, and for good reason. It’s what has allowed Michigan to run essentially three bigs on the court at one time. Lendeborg has become comfortable as a shooting threat, and Mara has figured out how to pass back out on doubles, find Johnson in the dunker spot or as a diver, or simply turn over his shoulder and score off his soft hook shot.
When Mara has everything going on both ends of the floor, he looks the part of a Top 10 pick in the 2026 draft. Michigan hasn’t played any world beaters in Buffalo through two games, but Saint Louis put up one heck of a fight for a while on Saturday, and Mara just had his way with that frontcourt. Everything he wanted, he got. My dear friend Maxwell Baumbach has quoted several times on our podcast together that basketball just comes easily for Mara, and I completely agree with him. He blocks shots, rebounds, finishes in the post, has shown promising signs of shooting touch, and has made some really impressive passes this season.
Mara may not be a 30+ MPG big man in the league, or dominate in a scoring sense at that next level. But he’s going to make an impact during his minutes on both ends of the floor, and drive winning. He’s done so for the Wolverines this season, and I’ve really come around to buying him doing the same in the NBA.
Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt
There may not be a more divisive prospect in draft circles than Vanderbilt’s Tyler Tanner.
The 6’0” guard who may very well measure under that mark from a height perspective has drawn some impressive praise and harsh criticism. Yet, all he’s done is help Vanderbilt have one of the program’s best seasons in recent memory, even if Tanner and the Commodores aren’t advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.
Tanner’s 27 points against Nebraska were electrifying to say the least. Tanner’s speed is unbelievable both in transition and in halfcourt settings. Few players can actually stay in front of Tanner at the guard position, to the point where teams are better served putting a bigger, longer defender on Vanderbilt’s point guard. And even then, Tanner’s 0-60mph acceleration allows him to still blow by that first level of the defense and get all the way to the rim if he chooses.
Given his size, there are still situations where he can get in a bit of trouble depending on the players he chooses to challenge at the basket when dribbling off a pick or catching his man asleep with a hesitation move. If Tanner gets himself too far underneath the basket, there are real concerns about how he can finish those plays based on the fact that he isn’t an acrobat-level athlete.
But Tanner is incredibly smart at picking and choosing his spots of when to attack vs. pass. That’s a large reason why he was one of the most efficient at-rim prospects one will find at the guard position in this (projected) 2026 class. Tanner understands his limitations and uses his speed as much as a passer as he does a scorer. Some of Tanner’s kick-out reads in the game against Nebraska warped the defense and got one of the country’s best shooters, Tyler Nickel, some great looks. And when it was time for Tanner to take over, he did so both as a spot-up shooter and tough scorer in the teeth of the defense. One thing about Tanner, even if the matchup isn’t favorable, he’s tough to the point where he can finish through some contact, as he did against the Cornhuskers.
The case for Tanner as a draft prospect is simple. He’s one of the fastest players in the draft, who is active as a defensive playmaker, and has the tools to impact the game offensively as a passer, even when his shot isn’t falling. I’ve been one of the more skeptical scouts about how he will succeed in the NBA, but it’s gotten hard to deny his overall production and the leap he’s taken in his sophomore season. NBA teams should pay attention to Tanner’s entire body of work this year, and the Nebraska tape only furthers the notion that Tanner has the chops to play in the league.
Tarris Reed Jr., UConn
Look, I know Furman doesn’t have any NBA big men on the roster, but hot damn, what Tarris Reed Jr. did against the Paladins was still incredibly impressive AND dominant!
Reed finished UConn’s first tournament game with 31 points and 27 FREAKING REBOUNDS. That’s one hell of a stat line in a 40-minute game. And the wildest part about it was that Reed didn’t do anything out of his ordinary approach to put up one of the tournament’s best stat lines up to this point.
Reed is a load of a human being on the low block. At 6’10” and 260 pounds, Reed has as good a chance as any to score in the post once he lowers that shoulder and proceeds to step through on his way to the rim. There isn’t an easy way to guard someone like Tarris one-on-one in the post, as he has better footwork than advertised, combined with that wide frame and brute strength.
I’ve long appreciated Reed as a big man prospect because he’s actually really good at doing the things I want from a center. He’s not just a black hole on post-up opportunities. Reed is an excellent screener who creates real space for shooters at the top of the floor. He’s a sharp roller with great hands and coordinated feet to catch, seal, and finish at the rim. Reed feasts on the boards, especially on the offensive glass. So to summarize, Reed creates AND maximizes possessions offensively as a center—no matter his role.
Defensively, there aren’t many in this upcoming class who are better cleaners of the glass on that end of the floor. Reed’s boxout technique is right up there with some of the best centers in the class, which is crucial for him to actually play extended minutes in a game. He doesn’t rely on out-jumping or going over the top of other players to secure rebounds. Reed uses his lower body well to establish box-out position and get rebounds with his wide frame and massive hands.
No one is expecting Reed to grab 20+ rebounds a game or score 30 in the NBA on a nightly basis. But what if Reed is able to produce in the ways that Dylan Cardwell is for the Sacramento Kings at a much higher rate? Is that player not in consideration for a first round pick?
The more I study this class, the more I’m intrigued by big men who are currently slotted in that 25-45 range on numerous draft boards. I’m writing about another one of those bigs a bit later in this piece, but don’t underestimate Reed as a legitimate difference maker who is taken outside of the Top 20 on draft night.
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Billy Richmond III and Meleek Thomas, Arkansas
Darius Acuff has dominated all of the headlines for Arkansas basketball over the last few weeks, but there’s no way the Razorbacks advance to the Sweet Sixteen without both Meleek Thomas and Billy Richmond III putting themselves back on NBA radars.
Each player has lived up to expectations of late and played strong roles on their respective ends of the floor. Thomas has shot the ball extremely well compared to his up-and-down averages during the regular season. He’s been the second option for Arkansas behind Acuff and in front of forward Trevon Brazile.
Thomas is such a dynamic scorer because he thrives on pull-up jumpers both inside and outside of the arc. Thomas is a wing-sized guard who can create separation, absorb contact, and score the basketball in a variety of ways. He’s really come alive as a creator, not just a catch-and-shoot threat playing off Acuff. Thomas has even gotten to the point where he and Acuff have been able to operate under some “your turn, my turn” style of isolation basketball. Acuff has needed a second guy to really step up and support him in the scoring department, and Thomas has served that role through Arkansas’ SEC run and in these first two NCAA Tournament games. He’s reminding scouts why he was projected before the season as a first-round pick in the 2026 draft.
Perhaps the more exhilarating of the two players is Richmond, who has jumped off the screen every time I’ve watched Arkansas over the last month. Richmond is only listed as a 6’5” wing, but he’s so long and springy that you think he’s more in the realm of 6’7” to 6’8” because of how big he plays on defense. Richmond REALLY guards opposing players with ferocity, as he sits in a stance, slides his feet, and overwhelms opponents with his length and lighting-quick hands. His motor runs hot on the glass, as he’s gobbled up rebounds and created second-chance opportunities for the Razorbacks, especially in the tournament.
What’s most exciting about Richmond’s recent development is that he’s been much more willing to step into jump shots when opponents have given him space, and I’m not just talking about catch-and-shoot threes. Richmond has started to step into some mid-range pull-up shots with comfort and has even knocked them down. Those types of jumpers just make him more difficult to guard because of his line-drive explosiveness and leaping ability going to the rack. He’s a dynamic slasher, especially in transition, but even as a cutter or diver off screen actions.
Richmond is a reliable jumper away from having a Herb Jones-level impact in the NBA. He has already started to flash more of the on-ball creativity, and possesses all of the elite hustle traits and defensive versatility Jones articulated at Alabama in college. Richmond is a No Ceilings favorite for a reason, and he’s started to look the part of a player who should think about testing the waters in this 2026 draft.
Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
Speaking of big men who are on the border of first round conversation, Zuby Ejiofor has had a LOUD tournament run already through the first weekend for St. John’s.
Without Ejiofor, the team’s physical identity on the interior wouldn’t be nearly as impactful. Ejiofor is a man’s man at the center position, while also having some of the best feet for a technically undersized center at the next level.
Ejiofor’s footwork could very well allow him to play alongside another true center, as he has the ability to cover forwards on the perimeter while holding his ground on any face-up drives. Against Kansas in the Round of 32, Ejiofor played defense on Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller, making life difficult for both of them. Ejiofor even stepped out on the perimeter and stole the ball from the likes of Darryn Peterson.
Ejiofor’s hands are like magnets to the basketball. Whether it’s creating steals, blocking shots, or grabbing rebounds, Ejiofor seems to always be in the right place at the right time with excellent reflexes to boot. He’s difficult to stop on both ends of the floor because of how well he can change directions, spin, pivot, and power through players while also not letting anyone go through his chest defensively.
On offense in particular, Ejiofor has grown his game past just posting up on the block. He can really handle the ball and take mismatches off the bounce to score in the paint. He’s worked hard on extending his range out to the three-point line, and there’s real touch for him to work with moving forward as a potential spot-up shooter. As a screen-and-roll threat, Ejiofor has great force rolling to the basket, but can also catch in a short roll and make decisions around the free-throw line area. In handoffs, he can fake, keep the ball, and really make someone’s life miserable—driving right at them, drawing contact, and getting to the line.
Ejiofor’s experience as a high-level big man who can do a bit of everything for his team on both ends is the backbone of what’s propelled St. John’s into the Sweet Sixteen. Through two NCAA tournament games this season, Ejiofor has registered 32 points, 20 rebounds, six assists, and seven combined steals/blocks! He’s producing in every facet of the game while taking on a lion’s share of the scoring and defensive responsibilities. Even though his overall field goal percentage has been in the low 40’s across two games, he’s been excellent from the charity stripe, making defenses pay for trying to play too physically to match his ferociousness as a post player.
My comparison for Ejiofor is Xavier Tillman 2.0: a better version of another small-ball big who made his presence felt around the basket, had the post game and ball handling to take forwards off the bounce, along with the length and hands to bother opposing centers around the rim and get his mitts on the ball. Tillman became a rotational player in the NBA because he extended his shot out to beyond the three-point line. I think Ejiofor is a much more physically gifted player while having even more to work with as a passer and potential face-up scorer.
There’s real value to be found in a player like Zuby in the frontcourt. He’s playing his way into legitimate first round conversations, and I wouldn’t blame a playoff team in need of frontline support to give him a long look anywhere from 20-35 in the upcoming 2026 draft.
Labaron Philon, Alabama
Labaron Philon seemingly continues to somehow go underdiscussed in draft circles when it comes to the best guards in the 2026 draft class.
Yes, Alabama underachieved during the regular season in the SEC by recent standards set by Nate Oats. But Philon improved significantly from where he was as a player last season in terms of elevating his game as a shooter, not just a scorer.
Philon took on significantly higher usage this season in both non-conference and SEC play, and did so while maintaining his overall efficiency across the board—all while still impacting the game in other facets like rebounding as well as making clutch plays on both ends of the floor.
In terms of toughness and competitiveness, there are few who exude it at the guard position more than Philon. In the tournament already, Philon has found ways to get to his spots, show off his improved shooting touch from the outside, and make plays even when his shot hasn’t fallen at times.
That’s the most important aspect of Philon’s game I keep coming back to. Even when he can’t buy a bucket, it doesn’t stop Philon from pulling the levers and looking for his teammates, or creating extra possessions off a timely steal or rebound on either end of the floor. Philon made a name for himself last season in a secondary role, doing all of the little things to help Alabama win games.
This season, he’s had the greenest of lights to operate with maximum freedom on the ball, and he’s still maintained that mentality of doing whatever it takes to help his team win games!
Philon possesses a mature game for a lead guard. He could still make some improvements as a passer and pick some spots more often to make plays for others, but he does have the requisite vision required of an NBA point guard, and can slither his way into the paint almost whenever he wants. His floater is one of the best at the position in this class, and with his improved efficiency as a pull-up three-point threat, he’s a difficult cover when he has everything going his way.
I’ve been very impressed with Philon’s growth this year, and putting Alabama on his back in the tournament should be another reminder for scouts out there that this kid is a bona fide winner and should be viewed as such in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Great article!