Then and Now: The 2025 NBA Draft Class
Stephen Gillaspie empties his scouting notebook to compare his first Big Board in December, to his final rankings of this 2025 NBA Draft class.
As we get closer to the 2025 NBA Draft, there is a lot of smoke coming out of back channels that have the potential to shake up boards—and, ultimately, how the actual draft could break. International players have played outside of the rest of their class peers, and their measurements have recently broken the draft space. Reports are flying of teams looking to make trades for players or to reposition themselves within this draft. Some teams could even be looking to move out of this draft altogether.
During this “noise season” part of the draft cycle, one thing I like to do is to go back and look at my personal evaluations of players. What’s interesting about this part of the cycle is that most players aren’t playing, but we still see prospects have let pushes up or down boards. The NBA Draft Combine, personal workouts, intel, and interviews can force us to rethink a lot of things. Going back and looking at the tape—and our own scouting reports—can do wonders. We can either go back and say: “OK, I can see that; I get it.” Or we can look back and say: “I’m just not buying it!”
What I’m going to do today is go back to my first board (due to the nature of my job, the December board is the earliest I submitted), and share what I have learned over the course of the draft cycle. Yes, that includes “noise season”. I’ve done this before for No Ceilings—back in 2022. This was during my first draft class with the team, here. If I’m being honest, a part of me is doing this for me. I want to clear my head and try to nail down my final rankings within this class. There is another part of me that wants to do this to maybe encourage others to do the same. It’s easy to say that we don’t let consensus sway us, but if we’re honest, if you listen to others, they likely have an impact on your assessment. With that being the case, I want to encourage you to trust your eyes—and to trust your evaluations. If you’re (like me) still struggling to nail down some of these prospects, maybe this can help.
Alright, let’s see what I’ve learned!
The Top 30
1. Then: Dylan Harper | Now: Cooper Flagg
Please don’t run away!
Some of the most fun I have had to this point is looking at my early-season projections. For those of you who join the draft cycle toward the latter portion, you might find it hard to believe that there was a point where you could question Cooper Flagg as the #1 pick. I would say I was in the minority at the time, but I genuinely felt that Flagg and Dylan Harper were close—if but for a very brief moment in time. In this podcast from early January, my cohost, Maxwell Baumbach, and I discussed how close their race was early on.
It only took me until my next big board to have Flagg as the top guy, and it was never close after that. Thought to be an elite defensive prospect with some offensive questions, Cooper took on the lion’s share of offensive responsibilities and improved as a ball-handler and decision maker as the season progressed. With that, Cooper has not just developed into the best prospects in this class, but one of the best prospects in recent memory.
2. Then: Cooper Flagg | Now: Dylan Harper
While Cooper has cemented himself as the top player in the 2025 NBA Draft Class, Dylan Harper has been subject to more scrutiny—not so much around whether he’s worthy of being the second pick in this draft, but in terms of what quality of player he is going to be with that pick. Perhaps the biggest point of conversation evaluators have had with Harper is his athleticism. Discourse has varied from Dylan having very good athleticism, to deceptive athleticism, to him not being very athletic. This sort of polarization has impacted where he falls in “tiering” out this class.
Regardless of whether he is in a tier unto himself or falls into a small tier with one or two prospects, Dylan is clearly one of the better players in the upcoming draft. Measuring in at 6’4 1/2” without shoes, Harper gives any NBA teams the best chance in the draft to land a modernized offense hub on the perimeter. The fact that he recorded a BPM of 8.6 on that Rutgers team is incredible. Harper has great vision, plays with a unique dribble cadence, has good court vision, and was solid on the defensive end. If he can progress as a respectable shooter off the bounce, we could be looking at a future NBA All-Star here.
3. Then: Derik Queen | Now: Tre Johnson
I have been a Derik Queen fan since Jump Street. While he is no longer #3 on my board, he isn’t far behind. We’ll talk more about him when we get to him, but the new occupant of my third spot is a player who has experienced a late push where he is considered as good as what I saw in him months ago.
Back in February, I wrote about how Tre was starting to shoot up boards, and why there was real substance behind the noise. Johnson has been a player who has had apparent offense but the concerns came with his defense, slighter frame, and his ability to play within a more sophisticated offense. The context at Texas was rough—which did lead to a coaching change. Tre still found ways to be productive at Texas, and he challenged Kevin Durant’s freshman scoring record. Tre has safety in his floor spacing, but there is some significant upside to his game, given the consistent demonstration of playmaking for others. Because of this, I have grown more confident in the heights Tre can reach as a prospect.
4. Then: V.J. Edgecombe | Now: Derik Queen
V.J. Edgecombe has been a consensus Top 5 prospect for pretty much the entire draft cycle, but he has seen his star fall a little bit. Upon further analysis, V.J.’s offense is what really raises questions. With that being said, this is where my confidence in Derik Queen comes into play.
The Majesty of Derik Queen | The Prospect Overview
The main reason I’m writing this article is because I love basketball. There are other factors at play, obviously, but the root cause of this article is that I fell in love with this sport as a child. I grew up in Chicago during the peak of the Jordan years. In pre-school, I brought the NBA standings, which I’d cut out of the newspaper, to show and tell…
Derik Queen is a fun offensive player who has concerns among the masses in pretty much every other aspect of his game. Queen has such fluidity to his game—he stands out as an NBA player just watching him move on the court. His vision makes it easy to envision him being a frontcourt playmaker. His rebounding has been incredible. Where the questions come into play are in his defense and floor spacing. With an emphasis on playing multiple big men, Queen figures to toggle between both the four and the five. While he cannot shoot yet, I wouldn’t rule it out. He does have soft touch, and he shot it well from the mid-range. Defensively, things are just going to come down to consistency. Sure, there are some tough moments, but there are also some very intriguing flashes. For instance, Derik locked up Kasparas Jakucionis in the open court on multiple occasions this year.
Queen is a body transformation player, losing a substantial amount of weight between the end of his high school playing days and the beginning of his time with Maryland. He also has a bit of “F*** You” in his game—which I really like. Sure, there is a world where it doesn’t work. But, man, I even think some floors with him turn into a fun player. The ceiling could be a DeMarcus Cousins-lite type of big.
5. Then: Collin Murray-Boyles | Now: V.J. Edgecombe
It’s crazy to see how many people have Collin Murray-Boyles as high as they do now. Well, maybe not. Maybe it saddens my heart to see how much I have backed off on him. And it’s really not because I don’t like him—I am still very much in on “CMB”—some other prospects have honestly just made more impressions on me throughout the cycle. This is where the V.J. Edgecombe slide ends on my board, though.
Outsider's Edge: Projecting V.J. Edgecombe's Offensive Role as an NBA player
At this point of the draft cycle, you probably have heard about V.J. Edgecombe. Depending on what point of the draft cycle you started evaluating this class, you may have a different perception of him. At the beginning of the “offseason” (if there is such a thing with scouting anymore), V.J. was widely considered a Top 5 prospect within this class. His …
I mentioned earlier that V.J.’s offense is his biggest area of concern. While he shot well on spot-ups, the highest upside of Edgecombe is going to come as more of an on-ball threat. His handle still has some work left before he can get to that ceiling. Not only is his handle not where you’d like to see it, but his shot off the bounce leaves plenty to be desired. His athleticism is awesome, but he isn’t the biggest of players to be an off-ball guy. That makes the eye of the needle that much smaller for him to thread.
The defensive is very impressive—which is why he is still considered as highly as he is at this point. Well, it’s because of his character and work ethic, as well as his defense. He has put up similar metrics as some of your favorite defensive-minded role-players, but he actually shot better than many of them at a younger age. Bake all of that into a cake, and it’s really hard not to like V.J. at some level.
6. Then: Tre Johnson | Now: Ace Bailey
I feel like I can hear some of you screaming at me through my computer. I’m aware of how high I am “supposed” to have him, but some of the things that have come out over the season just have me a little cautious.
A Secret Third Thing for Ace Bailey
Almost every discussion surrounding Ace Bailey and the 2025 NBA Draft is whether he's a star or a bust... but what if there were other options?
Throughout the process—and even now—Ace Bailey has drawn comparisons to players like Michael Porter Jr., Jabari Smith Jr., and Rashad Lewis. The combine showed that he wasn’t as big as those players. Not only that, but he was listed as a “guard” during an interview he participated in.
Ace in the Hole
It isn’t often that there is a palpable buzz during summer workouts within the scouting community coming out of Piscataway, NJ. However, that’s all changed, as the RAC will play host to the electric duo of Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper—both potential Top 5 picks in the 2025 NBA Draft—during the 2024-25 college season.
With him not being so big as to just shoot over the top of everyone, his handle is now even more important. That handle was not very reliable at this point. Now, Bailey’s defense is pretty impressive—which helps him be positionally versatile in the NBA. If he can gain some weight and improve as the type of shooter many project him to be, then Bailey could be one of the best players in this class. There are just several things that have to break right to make this happen.
7. Then: Asa Newell | Now: Carter Bryant
Asa Newell has had an interesting draft cycle this year. The highs have been very high, but there have been some notable holes in his game that we will address later. One of the quickest ascensions we’ve witnessed this season has come from Arizona’s Carter Bryant.
Bryant scratched, clawed, and fought his way into the consensus Top 10 despite his coach not fully leaning into Bryant’s clear talent. Carter’s appeal is very easy to understand: He was a highly touted recruit coming in, he has true size at his position, and he defends at a high level. What really vaulted him up my board is that he shot 37.1% from deep on 8.4 attempts per 100 possessions.
Carter Bryant is a Winning Player; Don't Overthink It
Playing winning basketball as a freshman in a minimal role can be extremely difficult, but that is exactly what Carter Bryant has done for Arizona all season. Bryant’s role and involvement have fluctuated all season, but that’s never deterred him from doing the little things that make everyone else around him better. Whether it’s taking the toughest def…
Carter is going to have to grow as a ball-handler if he is going to reach his ultimate upside. Many of his points were not created on his own—which is fine. Plenty of NBA players make a lot of money scoring while being set up. However, if there is star potential, it’s going to involve more self-creation.
8. Then: Ace Bailey | Now: Kon Knueppel
I was so low on Kon Knueppel coming into the season. At one point, I was more of a Liam McNeeley guy when evaluating the two. But Kon did a great job throughout the season—not just “mooching” off playing with Cooper Flagg, but utilizing his strengths to accentuate the skills of Flagg and Khaman Maluach.
The athleticism was the biggest aspect of his game that I was (and honestly still am a little bit) worried about. What made me more confident in Knueppel’s translation to the NBA is that, when Cooper was injured, Kon stepped into his role and Duke just didn’t miss a beat. Of course, you can expect him to be a reliable floor-spacer, but he also shows good passing chops, and he competes on defense.
Kon is getting some legitimate Top 5 buzz in the latter portions of the draft cycle. I can’t get that high, but I do think I could stomach the #6 through #9 range—which is a high climb considering where I started with him this season.
9. Then: Ben Saraf | Now: Cedric Coward
While Ben Saraf has been a more known commodity within the draft community for the majority of the season, Washington State’s Cedric Coward has been a bit of a surprise. It’s not that I didn’t know who Coward was—I was just surprised to see someone who played as little as he has this season stay in the draft.
Coward has shown the ability to shoot at every point of his college career, which gives me a lot of confidence in his floor spacing baseline. While he is an upperclassman, Cedric will be just 22 when next season starts. When diving into his metrics this season, the only comparable player in this class to Coward is the aforementioned Kon Knueppel. Cedric has insane measurables, which will help him on defense at the next level. The one area of concern regarding Coward is his ability to create off the dribble. Even if he is just acceptable in that regard, we could be looking at a long-time NBA vet—who might be capable of starting.
10. Then: Noa Essengue | Now: Nique Clifford
I was where a lot of people now are on Noa Essengue early on in the cycle, but he has faded now on my board. But only just a bit! In his place is a player that I have loved the entire year: Nique Clifford. Like the previously discussed Cedric Coward, Nique Clifford is another older prospect. Unlike Cedric, Clifford stayed at the same program while working to improve his draft stock.
Nique Clifford is Improving Where it Matters
Returning to school can always be a tricky proposition, especially for upperclassmen coming off a really strong year for a mid-major program. Last season, Nique Clifford emerged as a terrific 3-and-D wing with Colorado State. Even though some teams had legitimate interest in Clifford in the 2024 NBA Draft, Clifford chose to bet on himself, return to Col…
In some ways, Nique was the same player this season as he was the year before—which is mostly a good thing. His defense continued to be impressive, he crashed the glass at a high level, and he gave another season of good shooting. Where Nique did improve this season is in his decision-making and assists. While he may not come in and be a star in the NBA, having the understanding of what a star player needs is what allows great college players to become great NBA role players. This is where I am confident in Nique’s NBA projection.
11. Then: Egor Demin | Now: Collin Murray-Boyles
While I don’t have CMB in my Top 5 anymore, I’m still in on the CMB experience. A late-season push by Carter Bryant and a firm commitment to stay in the draft from Cedric Coward saw Murray-Boyles go down my board a smidge.
Collin Murray-Boyles: Basketball Amoeba
Positions are highly discussed and debated within many basketball circles. How important they are, how dated they might be, the nostalgia of the true power forward—there is no shortage of takes on how applicable or relevant that simple term is within the most beautiful game in the word. Yet, while positions are debated, there is no denying that the way …
The concerns with Collin are really two-fold. For one, his listed height is 6’6 1/2” without shoes, so he is either a slightly smaller four, or a legit small five. Typically speaking, if a frontcourt player is undersized, there is some floor-spacing ability. That’s the other concern with CMB—he didn’t shoot a lot, and he didn’t make a lot of threes. So, why be in on him?
Dude can hoop! Seriously, I buy his defensive ability. His +6 inch wingspan is about the length you have to have if you’re undersized in the frontcourt. This also allowed him to gobble up boards. Beyond that, he is a very good playmaker at his position. This is where the taboo Draymond Green comparisons creep into the conversations—and once those bubble up, you have to stop with the evaluation!
Seriously, that is what makes the projection with CMB tricky. He’s unique, which gives him an insane floor and ceiling. That’s what makes it easy for some to just be lower on him: you simply cannot be compared to one of the most unique players of all time. Or…you could have a special player on your hands.
12. Then: Alex Karaban | Now: Rasheer Fleming
I’m not abandoning the Karaban cruise liner! It feels like there is always next year, baby! UConn was a bit of a mess this year, but it looks like they could return to a normal form in the upcoming season. I’m ready for a big Karaban campaign.
In the meantime, Rasheer Fleming occupies the 12th spot on my board. I know this isn’t where he falls within consensus, and I am aware of some of the other names that are still on my board. I just believe that much in what Fleming has to offer. Fleming measured in at 6’8 1/4” without shoes, and weighed in at 232 pounds. Nearing 6’10” on the floor, I could see Fleming playing the four or the five.
Rasheer Fleming: When Fun Flashes Evolve Into Consistent Dominance
Flashes are fun, but they don’t always mean the same thing for all prospects. When a raw freshman at a major program gives us incredible flashes without the consistent performances, it’s unfortunately different than when one does it at a mid-major program. Rightly or wrongly, mid-major players typically have to establish a sense of consistent dominance to be legitimate draft prospects, which is a lot easier said than done. Since his freshman year, Rasheer Fleming has given us some incredible flashes. This year, though, the 6’9” 240-pound junior forward from Saint Joseph’s is finally giving us the consistent dominance we’ve been craving, making him one of the most rapidly rising prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft class.
He shot well from deep this season, nearing 40% on good volume. With Rasheer being a reliable floor-spacer, his incredible defense and rebounding numbers stood out in a more impressive manner. The biggest area of improvement for Fleming comes in the ball-handling and decision-making departments. Those aren’t irrelevant concerns, especially considering how much more big men in the NBA have to do now.
Even if Rasheer has to be more of a play finisher, he is more than equipped to do that. He got to the basket a ton, and finished a ton when he got there. That flexibility as a floor spacer really gives him some versatility in how he can finish plays. His size and athleticism also give him flexibility in being able to defend the four and the five as well.
13. Then: Mackenzie Mgbako | Now: Khaman Maluach
I cannot tell you how happy I was to see Mackenzie Mgbako have a good combine and climb up to the second round on some boards prior to him withdrawing. I haven’t really ever been a Khaman Maluach guy at any point in this draft cycle, but there are some things about his game that make you have to start thinking about him in the back half of the lottery.
If you weren’t aware, Maluach is just huge. Measuring in at 7’0 3/4” barefoot, Khaman projects to do all of the traditional big man things: block shots, rebounds, and finish around the basket. The shot blocking numbers were nice, but not to the elite level that most other rim protectors were in their college years. Many are concerned about the rebounding issues—especially after his poor rebounding performance in the NCAA Tournament. What did happen at a high level was his at-rim finishing.
He scored on over 75% on his two-pointers on 175 attempts. The other areas of concern in Maluach’s game is anything that has to do with offensive feel—which puts him in a play finisher-only mold. That archetype can still have some value in the league, but there will be limitations to whatever rotation he is in.
14. Then: Nique Clifford | Now: Thomas Sorber
We’ve already seen where Nique went on my board now, and talked about how much I love him. Now we can talk about how much I love Thomas Sorber. Sorber was a name I was tracking prior to the season, simply because of the way his Georgetown team was constructed. It didn’t take long for Sorber to make his impact felt, as he scored 20 points in his first two college basketball games.
One of the bigger concerns about Sorber is that he isn’t the tallest center that could be taken, as he was listed at 6’9 1/4” barefoot. What helps with the smaller height measurements was the 7’6” wingspan and 9’1” standing reach. That bore out in Sorber getting a good amount of rebounds, blocked shots, and interior finishes. This gives me some confidence that he can do “big man things” at the next level.
What makes him more than a traditional big man is that he can move the ball. His Assist-to-Turnover ratio came out to be 1.1, with him posting an Assist Percentage of almost 16. He figures to operate in DHO settings, and could translate as a smart passer in the short role. He didn’t shoot well from deep, so that resulted in mixed opinions in terms of his ability to space the floor at the next level. He did show soft touch around the rim, and he shot it decently from the free-throw line. I’m not hanging my stock in him on him possibly being a shooter someday, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of it.
15. Then: Boogie Fland | Now: Kasparas Jakucionis
If you’ve heard be on any of the Draft Sickos podcasts recently, you would have heard me make the joke about how Boogie Fland pulled a “Grandpa Simpson” by testing the waters, showing up to the NBA Draft Combine, and then withdrawing before he even got out of his street clothes. Perhaps it was a leverage play, but Fland was about to transfer to the Florida Gators on a team that looks super loaded. In his place is the first of the organizers in this draft class: Kasparas Jakucionis.
I’ve not been the biggest fan of the table setters in this class, and I’ll dive in more as to why as we continue. With Kasparas, I don’t like how his shot has been throughout the season. I haven’t been the biggest fan of his processing all the time. He has been locked up by different players during the season who really shouldn’t have been able to do it. Still, his vision is good. He can snake his way into the paint and finish. He has good positional size, as he measured in at 6’4 3/4” without shoes, and weighed in at 205 pounds. Of the other point guard options, Jakucionis’s shot is the one I believe in the most.
At this point on my board, I can buy in on the potential upside of him. He isn’t as tall as Egor Demin, nor as athletic as Jeremiah Fears, but I feel like Jakucionis is smack-dab in the middle of the Venn Diagram between the two prospects.
16. Then: Rasheer Fleming | Now: Jeremiah Fears
I’m very well aware that there are a ton of people who L-O-V-E Jeremiah Fears, and think he could go in the Top 7—maybe even Top 5. I’m just not there on him. I understand the athletic upside of him (though Kon Knueppel and Liam McNeeley had the same max vert as him). He is a pretty quick player, but he isn’t explosive. This can really limit his upside—especially since he measured at 6’2 1/2” without shoes and 179 pounds. His frame gives some pause about how much you can lean into him in his early years.
While those concerns are legitimate, Fears did produce at a young age in the most athletic conference in college basketball. He drew a ton of fouls, and he did post a high Assist Percentage. He rebounded decently. And he did those things on a Usage Percentage of almost 32. Oh, and he had a Steal Percentage of over 3! Usage and Steals can be a solid indicator of future success, but he did struggle in the paint, and to convert from deep. He also turned the ball over at a high rate.
Scout's Notebook: Jeremiah Fears's Breakout Battle 4 Atlantis
Oklahoma had a big Thanksgiving week, beating Providence, Arizona, and Louisville on back-to-back-to-back days. I watched the Providence and Arizona games specifically in close detail, and am sharing my detailed notes that rival the game reports that NBA scouts send to their leadership when they attend games in person.
It’s a hodgepodge of strengths and weaknesses, which really makes me nervous. And, while I don’t rule out players specifically because of size (I had Tahaad Pettiford bordering my lottery despite his size), his frame doesn’t help on top of the concerns he does have.
17. Then: Kam Jones | Now: Danny Wolf
I was very high on Kam Jones coming into this season. Early on, I felt like he was going to be a borderline lottery pick. As the season progressed, Jones’s shooting numbers fell off, but he was able to continue his improved playmaking. I have him as a priority second rounder now—and it makes me sad.
On the other hand, Danny Wolf has emerged as a player who I like a lot. I know I don’t have him as high as others, but I do like him a good deal. For one, I love the fact that his most-used play type was operating pick-and-roll sets. The level of feel that he has at his size is impressive, and is very in keeping with what is asked of most NBA big men. His ability to dribble and pass—on top of being a very good (and somehow, underrated) finisher.
This level of uniqueness is awesome, but there are some concerns that have him where he is on my board. He is often lumped into the “dribble-pass-shoot” big man, but can he shoot? I’m not certain he will in the NBA. He’s never really been a good free-throw shooter, and he only shot 33% from deep. That’s not terrible for a big man, but it’s not a certainty that he can either. He only shot 31% on his open threes. Beyond that, there are some mobility concerns on the defensive end.
Still, the level of feel is something NBA teams should be willing to bet on at some point. That’s why I have him in a range that goes up to 12.
18. Then: Liam McNeeley | Now: Noa Essengue
Up until about a week ago, Noa Essengue was lower on my board. Am I caving to some of the late-season push? Am I conceding to consensus conversation? I actually don’t know. For whatever reason, I am probably the most up-in-the-air at this point of the draft cycle than I have been since I started doing this.
Noa has a TON of intriguing things to like. His measurements were breathtaking, as he was measured at 6’10” barefoot! Sure, he’s only 204 pounds, but he is actively growing and should continue to fill out his frame. Noa runs the floor well, has a very hot motor, and profiles to be a solid, switchable defender. Does that sound a little like Tidjane Salaun from last season?
Don’t worry; it does to me, too. Salaun could still end up being a success, and so could Essengue. But, there are some feel concerns that I have with him. I don’t know if he shoots. I don’t feel super optimistic about the handle or passing. Even though there is real defensive upside, he fouled almost twice as much as he either blocked a shot or stole the ball. And even though he could add on some muscle, it isn’t a cure thing that he will ever be strong enough to reach his ultimate upside. For every Giannis Antetokounmpo, there is a Tidjane Salaun, Ousmane Dieng, Jan Vesely, Dragan Bender, etc.
19. Then: Kasparas Jakucionis | Now: Egor Demin
We talked about Jakucionis. We talked about Fears. That leaves us with the next “lead guard” (?) in Egor Demin. Even early on in the season, I was skeptical of Demin, and how he could translate to the NBA. However, I was willing to give him a chance. I get the hypotheticals with him. He’s very tall—measuring in at 6’8 1/4” without shoes. Being that tall and having the sort of vision he has, I get the appeal.
There is reason to have some pause, though. He might be the worst shooter of the top three lead ball-handling options. There are a lot of social media posts about Demin improving his shooting, but those have come in open-gym settings. He also weighs less than Jakucionis and Essengue. His lack of separation ability came under fire during the season, which brought up conversations about him being screen-reliant. He did convert at the rim at a good clip, but didn’t get there as much as you’d like.
Because he is tall and can pass, you’ll see some Josh Giddey comps. However, Giddey was a bit more bulky and was proven in the more physical NBL. Also, there was a real path to scoring in his game that made the passing worth investing in. Even if Demin is Giddey, it took a team in Chicago that was willing to turn over the entire offense to him. Once OKC had a team that could space the floor around SGA, Giddey was moved for Alex Caruso. Demin would have to prove a lot to even get to where Josh is. That’s why I am a bit lower on the guy who might have the best vision in the class.
20. Then: Johni Broome | Now: Joan Beringer
Similar to how I discussed the late rise of Noa Essengue on my board, we’re going to hit a little stretch of other late risers. This comes at the expense of one of my favorite prospects coming into the season, Johni Broome. Broome was incredibly productive, and could still be one of the better prospects in the class…and we’ll discuss that a little more a little later.
In the meantime, let’s talk about a prospect that has been a little perplexing to me: Joan Beringer. Joan measured in at 6’11” without shoes—which gives him the size upside to be a very good rim finisher. He also has a +5 wingspan, which gives him some upside as a rim protector. Like most players in this range, he is a little slim still, which means he is going to get bullied a bit.
He has some zoom and some wiggle, which gives some excitement in terms of him being a rim runner. There are signs that he could function well in DHO options, or passing out of the short roll. Pair the offense with a high-profile rim protector, and there is some real value to be had at this point on my board.
21. Then: Miles Byrd | Now: Nolan Traore
Ah, Miles Bird. I wasn’t shocked to see Byrd return to school, but I was a little disappointed. Despite his up-and-down shooting during the season, he did well during the combine. I even had him in this range prior to him withdrawing from the draft. Such is life. Anyways, Nolan Traore is here! He really wore on me in the past few weeks. While I did get the buzz about him being Top 5 prior to this cycle starting, he did not get off to a good start.
Even after some flashes early in his season, I continued to be very low on Traore. However, his shooting did get better as the season went on for him. His playmaking has been awesome pretty much all season. He also has some legit zoom to his game. There is a certain amount of fluidity that balances with his processing nicely.
Still, there are a ton of concerns that come with his size. He weighs 175 pounds, which just isn’t where many NBA players get the chance to play. While the shot got better toward the end of the season, he shot just under 29% on his dribble jumper threes. I know some would probably risk taking him higher than this, but I would be more comfortable in this range (as high as 16).
22. Then: Khaman Maluach | Now: Asa Newell
What a world I am in now, where I have Khaman Maluach over Asa Newell, but here we are. I really wanted to be in on Asa. There was so much to like about him coming into the year. He has the size you want in a stretch four. The best version of him would have him spacing the floor, being a threat in the short roll, and being an awesome weakside rim protector.
Magic 8 Ballers: Time for a Re(Newell)
Some players just make you want to play the tape again. Sure, as a devoted NBA draft scout, I’m inclined to find the beauty in the game of every player. Like most other scouts, though, I’m human: I have some aesthetic preferences that lead me to want to watch certain player archetypes more than others.
Herein lies the problem: a lot of those areas are pretty hypothetical. Newell shot less than 30% from deep on okay (but not great) volume. He shot okay (almost 37%) when he was left open, but you have to wonder if he is going to shoot enough to warrant a defender face guarding him on the perimeter. He also only had 28 assists on the season, which ranked sixth on his own team. He didn’t turn the ball over a ton, but that’s because he wasn’t a high-usage player. He did finish around the basket, and he was very effective on the offensive boards.
The defense was intriguing. His block percentage was among the lowest you’ll see of the defensive-minded prospects that figure to go in the first round, but he did show the ability to force a healthy amount of steals. He was also just under neutral in terms of Stocks (Steals+Blocks) to Fouls Committed. He is young, he does have good size, and he could still have some offensive game to unlock. But, again, a lot of Asa is hypothetical.
23. Then: Labaron Philon | Now: Jase Richardson
Count me among those who were actually glad to see Labaron Philon return to school, as I just didn’t see it with him as the deadline for returning prospects to go back to college passed. I got the defense, and some of the playmaking, but he was very thin and was very much a question mark to shoot. I’m excited to see how he improves.
Let’s talk about Jase. He is a very interesting player. Let me start off by saying that there is clear talent here. Jase shot over 41%, he had a 2.3 ATO, he rebounded better than you would think, and he was very efficient (True Shooting Percentage of 62.4). He is a very good player, showing evidence of even being a positive defensive player as well. So, why is he ranked down here?
Well, he doesn’t do a ton on the ball; he’s best at playing off others. What makes that a bit problematic is his size. He was measured at just 6’0 1/2” without shoes, and weighed in under 179 pounds. Even though his defense was solid in college—and he logged a 6’6” wingspan—teams will be more than willing to attack Jase on defense. What is the appetite for a smaller off-guard? That is what I’m wrestling with. At this point in the draft, though, I would be thrilled to take a shot on him.
24. Then: Donnie Freeman | Now: Ryan Kalkbrenner
Remember Donnie Freeman? That was…something. You know who has been impossible to forget? How about the four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year? I won’t lie (I think I have said this a few times this draft cycle), I don’t think I could have been more out on a player coming into the season than I was on Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Ryan Kalkbrenner: Still Here for a Reason | The Prospect Overview
The draft world can be a cruel, fickle place. One day, they’re calling you a potential Top 5 pick. Then a few months down the road, they’re calling you an overrated prospect who artificially inflated your BPM during the non-conference portion of the schedule and saying you need to go back to school. But that’s how it works! We’re constantly acquiring new data points. Some players rise; others fall. It’s particularly volatile for underclassmen, as younger prospects are generally perceived as having higher upside. When a freshman gets hot, the world takes notice. But when one cools off, they become a trickier proposition.
But then, Ryan got a little better. Beyond what he normally does, Kalkbrenner grew more comfortable operating on the perimeter. Putting the ball on the deck and making smart decisions with the ball is more in demand from big men in the NBA, and this development made Ryan’s projection a lot clearer. Not only did the decision-making grow in complexity and efficiency, but he actually took and made some threes.
Kalkbrenner does the normal “big man things” well, too. He has grown into a more consistent and tougher competitor on the glass. He blocks shots. He finishes around the basket. The concerns come with Ryan’s footspeed, his ability to do anything outside of drop coverage, and how impactful he can be away from the rim on offense. Those are a healthy number of concerns, which is why Ryan finds himself in this range.
25. Then: Tucker DeVries | Now: Adou Thiero
I sure do wish Tucker DeVries would have had a regular season. Injuries haven’t stayed away from him. Not only that, but Tucker has found himself on yet another team playing for his dad. I want to buy in on him, but I don’t know how high I can have DeVries coming into next season. I have some time to figure that out, though. For now, I want to focus on my Arkansas Razorback guy.
Thiero is athletic enough and plays strong enough defense, to where he could return significant value on draft night. Adou plays like a wrecking ball and puts a ton of pressure on the basket—16 of Thiero’s 45 dunks came in the halfcourt, and he ranked in the 74th Percentile finishing at the basket. He was also positive in his A:TO.
Thiero is hard to pin down in other aspects, though. He measured in at 6’6 1/4” without shoes—which puts him at a size where he could play the three or the four. The problem with Adou’s offense is that he cannot shoot. Not only can he not shoot, but there might not be a path for him to be able to shoot with how his form and touch are now. I hate to be so definitive about a prospect’s potential, but the shot is a serious issue. He can still provide value without the shot, but it’s going to be in a very limited role.
26. Then: Hunter Sallis | Now: Walter Clayton Jr.
Hunter Sallis is still on my board despite not being a very popular name this year. We’ll get more into that when we reach the second round. For now, we’ll dive into Walter Clayton Jr.—a player I’ve been a fan of over the past three seasons.
Starting out in Iona, WCJ was a player who drew some interest. When he came to Florida, he continued to show that he was a good scorer and solid playmaker. We saw the same thing this year, as he captained the Gators to a National Championship. Clayton has a sturdy frame, measuring at 6’2” without shoes, and weighing in around 200 pounds. His build makes it easier to envision him having success in the NBA.
Walter can shoot (almost 39% on over 13 attempts per 100 possessions) and can pass (23.2 Assist Percentage). Where he can be a little uncertain in his projection is his rebounding and rim pressure. Sure, rebounding isn’t necessarily a “guard’s role”, but grabbing boards is typically a good indication of future success for any position. Walter converted at the rim when he got there, but he just wasn’t very interested in going there. Defensively, he will need to shore up to be at least a neutral contributor.
27. Then: J.T. Toppin | Now: Ben Saraf
J.T. Toppin was one of the higher-profile players who tested the waters but opted to return for another year of college ball. If there is something I would like to see Toppin do, it would be to take and make some threes. On the other side of this conversation is the player who has fallen the most on my board (among higher-profile players; come on, now). That player is Ben Saraf.
Saraf came into the season with the potential to be in the mix with Jakucionis, Fears, and Demin as one of the better initiators in this class. The good news is that Ben’s playmaking held up great throughout the year, as he had 216 assists to 152 turnovers. Outside of his passing, the rest of Saraf’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. He did alright in at the rim (48th percentile), but he wasn’t automatic. He also struggled to shoot anything that was slightly contested.
Defensively, Ben was okay, but doesn’t profile to be a difference maker on that end. So that really puts Saraf in the right draft class. He has good vision, he has good size (measured at 6’6” barefoot), but what else is he going to do?
28. Then: Magoon Gwath | Now: Alijah Martin
Magoon Gwath was a player who was an upside bet coming into the year, and he had a solid stretch of success to start the season. He ultimately made the right decision to return to play another year of college hoops. And here comes a player I did not see coming to start the season—and I certainly didn’t expect to have him in my first round—that being Alijah Martin.
While Walter Clayton Jr. was the face of this Florida Gator squad, Alijah was the heart. He measured better than many expected at 6’1 1/2”, with a 6’7 1/2” wingspan. Those measurements show themselves on the defensive end, as he can guard up and down the lineup. He competes on the glass. He also connected on 35% of his threes on impressive volume (11.1 threes per 100 possessions). His competitive nature really grew on me over the course of the season.
There are real reasons why Alijah may not make it in the league. Is the three-pointer real? He’ll need to space the floor reliably because he isn’t the best on-ball threat. That can make the waters a bit murky due to his size. Ultimately, where I land with Alijah is this: Look at the NBA Finals. Just look at how many guards take on tough defensive assignments. Look at how many guards are playing due to sheer hustle. If Martin can space the floor, compete on the glass, wrestle away loose balls, and be an irritant on defense, there is a real path to being a good rotational player.
29. Then: Dink Pate | Now: Liam McNeeley
Dink Pate took a bit of a tumble down my board. His season was weird playing in the G League. His size gave me some optimism, as I thought he could be a solid two-way prospect. I still have him in my second round, but he just hasn’t shown himself to be the level of player I hoped for. In a lot of ways, neither has the next guy on my board.
Liam McNeeley: How High Would you Draft Glen Rice?
In the latest episode of “SCOUT” on the Brooklyn Nets’s YouTube Channel, Assistant GM B.J. Johnson had a great quote when he was addressing his scouting department.
To start with some positives, Liam is a big wing. He measured in at 6’7 3/4” without shoes and 215 pounds. That helped him be a very good rebounder for his position. McNeeley had a pretty high usage, but he also took care of the ball. He demonstrated his handle a ton due to the construction of Connecticut this season, and had some flashes of good playmaking. All of that is nice, but the whole sales pitch with him is that Liam is a shooter.
While being a shooter, Liam shot just under 32% from deep. Now, I’ve heard the whole “look at his high school film; he could really shoot,” and the whole “he was the point guard at UConn; his shooting will get better” arguments. In my opinion, it is a slippery slope when you start toeing the line between context and excuses. While he struggled from deep, he also couldn’t finish at the basket (12th percentile on 42nd percentile frequency). So now I have to worry about how my shooter (who didn’t shoot) will finish when he’s chased off the line. He also had twice as many fouls committed as he did Stocks generated. So now I have a one-sided player, whose strength is shooting, but he didn’t shoot.
There is a place to take him in the first round, but to me, that isn’t in the top half.
30. Then: Drake Powell | Now: Johni Broome
I completely forgot that I had Drake Powell in my first round on my first big board, but that was the buzz about him coming into this season. Unfortunately, North Carolina has not been very good as of late, despite their brand appeal. For about a week or so, Drake was in my first round, but he has since found his way into my second round.
Who is Johni Broome? | The Prospect Overview
When I first started to follow NBA Draft coverage, I always wanted to know which current NBA player a prospect projected to be like in the league. It was a quick, shorthand way to get an idea of how someone played and what their impact in the league would resemble. Then, I got older. I got deeper into the scouting weeds. I grew to dislike player comps. Like snowflakes, no two players are identical. It felt too cheap and lacking in nuance. Eventually, though, the horseshoe theory would win out. I’ve come back to enjoying player comparisons. The first reason for that is that, simply put, it’s important to identify if how a player produces is replicable in the NBA. Secondly, I think it’s handy from a statistical research standpoint. If you’re telling me a guy is the next Draymond Green, I can look at what Draymond Green did in college and how that player stacks up next to him. It’s important to compare a prospect’s pre-NBA production to those in their archetype who found success at the NBA level.
I had been high on Johni Broome coming into the season, and he was very productive this season. As he has done throughout his college career, Broome was so effective on the boards. His level of rebounding over his time in school projects to be one of the most bankable skill transitions in this class. On top of that, Johni showed awesome shot blocking and defending in general. He finished well in the paint, and he drew contact. Sounds good, right?
Well, yes. But the concerns with Broome are a bit tricky. He played the four at Auburn, and was more perimeter-oriented. He took an okay-ish number of threes, but hit less than 28% from deep. If you’re playing him as your rim finisher, there are going to be questions regarding Johni’s size. He measured 6’9 1/2” without shoes. He did weigh in at 250 pounds and has played at a heavier size, so maybe you could see more bulk, but Broome may not be a player that teams aren’t afraid to challenge early on. He has shown the ability to block shots for some time, now, but he’ll have to prove it in the pros. That’ll likely be in a drop role.
With the opposition of size and productivity, the projection of Johni isn’t very clear-cut. That’s why—even though I like him—there is a bit of a cap on how high I can have him.
31-59
We’ll take a look at the next 10 names that’ll appear in this section, as they have some name recognition within the draft space as potential hits in this class.
31. Then: Will Riley | Now: Kam Jones
Kam Jones has been a favorite of mine for some time. The early-season production was awesome, but the significant drop in his shooting was concerning. It was awesome to see him take on a larger role following the departure of Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. Maybe if he scales his role back down, we could see more efficiency from deep with Kam. But that could be a big if. Drafting a guard who can’t shoot can work, but they have to be obvious pluses in vision, defense, and effort.
We’ll get to Will Riley in a few more picks.
32. Then: K.J. Lewis | Now: Noah Penda
K.J. Lewis is an athletic guard who can defend but really needs to learn to shoot or playmake at a higher level to really catch on with NBA teams. I’ll need to see that happen if he is going to be back in this range on my board.
Noah Penda is such a fascinating player. There are clear elements of feel and skill to his game, and he has a frame that can handle higher levels of physicality. Penda will toggle between different frontcourt positions, and could be potentially be a mismatch guy. He wasn’t a very good shooter last season (~32%), and there are some athleticism concerns with him. My feel is that you’re hoping for Boris Diaw, which is a tough needle to thread.
33. Then: Nolan Traore | Now: Hunter Sallis
We’ve touched on the rise Traore has had on my board, and now we get to talk about a player I was high on last season, and coming into this year: Hunter Sallis.
Now, Hunter had a bad season; I know. However, that really only came in terms of shooting. Looking past the shooting, Sallis showed the ability to pressure the defense, finish at the rim, compete on the boards, and defend at a respectable level. His passing was modest, but he did take very good care of the ball while being Wake Forest’s hub. To get into context for the slump from Sallis, he shot under 27% from deep. To dig in deeper, Wake went from the 40th most efficient three-point shooting team last season to the 359th-ranked team this season. So, if we’re going to give guys like Liam McNeeley a pass for his poor shooting season, why can’t we with Hunter? Oh, he also shot 37% on his open threes.
34. Then: Joson Sanon | Now: Hansen Yang
Joson Sanon is heading to St. John’s after a pretty rough season at Arizona State. He’ll have some talent joining him, so hopefully we’ll see Sanon bounce back at a new school.
I had no idea what to do with Hansen Yang. Honestly, I still don’t know if I can confidently say that I know what to do with him. To be clear, I still trust my scout on him, but how translatable is he? I didn’t really take him seriously until he showed out at the NBA Draft Combine. There are clear levels of feel at his size, and there is some shot projectability with Yang. While I do question his mobility some, he did defend players like Micah Peavy and Sion James in space. I do wonder about the “nasty” in his game—how tough he could be. I do wonder how well he’ll score around the rim. Can he be a true deterrent? I don’t know. The combine was good, but he didn’t go up against the best bigs in the class—and that has to account for something.
35. Then: Jeremiah Fears | Now: Hugo Gonzalez
Gonzalez went up a bit overall on my boards—and he has been significantly higher at different points of this process. His evaluation is a little tricky—as I wrote about not too long ago—as you have to weigh how well he did in exhibitions against his time with a deep Real Madrid team this season.
Real Madrid had nine former NBA players on this team, which put Gonzalez in an inconsistent role. Hugo only shot 44% from the floor and under 27% from deep. He was dead-even on his assists and turnovers. On defense, Gonzalez had 27 Stocks generated to 87 Fouls Committed. But, Hugo is still very young, and he measured incredibly well in terms of height (6’6 1/4” barefoot) and weight (223 pounds). In the U18 Next Gen Tournament, Hugo averaged about 18 PPG, 5 RPB, 2 APG, and 2 SPG—with splits of 55/38/82. That was against players like Nikola Topic, Pacome Dadiet, Kasparas Jakucionis, Neoklis Avdalas, Dame Sarr, Mohamed Faye, and Mohamed Diawara.
36. Then: Kon Knueppel | Now: Yanic Konan Niederhauser
Yeah, I was pretty low on Kon, huh? Welp. Not anymore!
Anyway, Yanic Konan Niederhauser’s rise up boards was due to the benefits of combine season. Some people have Yanic higher, and I kind of see why. To me, “YKN” reminds me of Hassan Whiteside in a lot of ways—and I genuinely mean that as a good thing. Yanic is huge, he’s athletic, and he is a very good rebounder and rim protector. While he is very raw on the offensive end, he still managed to average around 12 PPG on offense. Keeping things simple for him could result in some easy points around the rim. He’ll need to work on his timing and propensity to jump at the slightest pump-fake, but there is a lot to his game that could be exciting and translatable.
37. Then: Hugo Gonzalez | Now: Maxime Raynaud
Hugo has received a little bump up my board, as we already saw. Before I get into my Raynaud evaluation, I want the record to show that he went from not being on my board, to the 37th-ranked player—so I acknowledge his very good season.
Yes, Raynaud can shoot a bit—as evidenced 34.7% shooting from deep on almost 10 attempts per 100 possessions. He also showed the ability to grab rebounds. As big as he is, though, I’ve seen Maxime get locked down by a player who is younger than him, who is six inches shorter and 30 pounds lighter. His foot speed is concerning to me, especially on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, he is theoretically a shooter, but his passing and vision aren’t great, which limits his role on offense in a substantial way. I just cant get with the higher-end ranges with Maxime.
38. Then: Ian Jackson | Now: Drake Powell
Ian Jackson will be teaming up with the aforementioned Joson Sanon at St. John’s next season, as both of those prospects look to improve their draft stock. Ian Jackson was the teammate of the prospect we’ll look at next: Drake Powell.
Powell was one of the more surprising players who opted to stay in the NBA Draft, considering the other prospects who tested and returned. Powell is a clear and definitive athlete who has a path to sticking in the league as a stout defender. While he did shoot about 38% from deep, there isn’t a lot of confidence in his shot being a major weapon in the NBA. Without that, his offensive role looks bleak in a hurry. Powell did have a positive A:TO, so maybe you can convince yourself of a smidge of feel being in there somewhere. I flirted with having him at 25 about a week or so ago, but his offense scared me into putting him back here.
39. Then: Carter Bryant | Now: Kobe Sanders
Carter Bryant has already been discussed as—not only one of the biggest risers in this class—but as one of the best prospects in this class overall. His ascension has been awesome. Likewise, so has the ascension of Nevada prospect Kobe Sanders.
Kobe is a bit of a funky player. He measured at 6’7” without shoes, and he spent the majority of his time as a pick-and-roll ball handler. With such high usage, Kobe also had an Assist Percentage of nearly 30! His 2.4 A:TO puts him among a special range of players in this draft. He also has some defensive playmaking. What would make his projection a lot smoother would be some consistent shooting. Now, he did shoot over 45% off the bounce, but that was his lowest volume shot type. There is enough to like a lot in the early second round range for me.
40. Then: Thomas Sorber | Now: Will Riley
Like Carter Bryant, Thomas Sorber did have a huge boost for me as his season progressed. On the other side of this conversation is Will Riley. I had him 31st coming into the season, mostly because I just didn’t trust his frame. I have put an emphasis on players having the ability to handle physicality, and I didn’t see that with Will.
He did rank in the 66th percentile in at-rim finishing, but only ranked in the 37th percentile in his frequency in getting to the rim. That’s a red flag for me if I’m eyeing a 6’8 1/4” (without shoes) forward. His biggest factor that gets discussed as a positive for Riley is his handle at his size. He dribbles, but he only had an Assist Percentage of 16. That ranked under Kylan Boswell, and barely over Tomislav Ivisic (15.8). Defensively, Will only had 19 Stocks and fouled 40 times. I get that he’s young, but having an offensively-tilted perimeter player who barely out-assisted his center and shot under 33% from deep isn’t my idea of a first round pick.
41. Then: Adou Thiero | Now: Koby Brea
42. Then: Kanon Catchings | Now: Will Richard
43. Then: Jase Richardson | Now: Jamir Watkins
44. Then: John Mobley | Now: Bogoljub Markovic
45. Then: Xaivian Lee | Now: Chaz Lanier
46. Then: Danny Wolf | Now: Micah Peavy
47. Then: Rocco Zikarsky | Now: Tyrese Proctor
48. Then: Darrion Reid | Now: Dink Pate
49. Then: Payton Sandfort | Now: RJ Luis Jr.
50. Then: Tyrese Proctor | Now: Sion James
51. Then: Jaland Lowe | Now: Cameron Matthews
52. Then: Isaiah Evans | Now: Javon Small
53. Then: Ryan Kalkbrenner | Now: Dylan Cardwell
54. Then: Michael Ruzic | Now: Steve Settle III
55. Then: Noah Penda | Now: Eric Dixon
56. Then: Igor Milicic Jr. | Now: Viktor Lakhin
57. Then: Tahaad Pettiford | Now: Ryan Nembhard
58. Then: Karter Knox | Now: Alex Toohey
59. Then: Jamir Watkins | Now: Brooks Barnhizer
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what a fantastic idea for an article, love it. Great work and super interesting, makes you think about the way we think about ball in general and how we get influenced by recency and what other people think